FC Andorra2Burgos3

HT 2–3Mon 26 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 20–13On targetOn target 11–7CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 14:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Burgos sit nine places above Andorra but have won once in four away league games, while Andorra have lost three of five at home.

The draw or a Burgos win at 1.75 is the one quoted price offering a slender margin; Under 3.5 goals at 1.30 and Andorra to score at 1.22 ask for more than the evidence supports, and over 8.5 corners at 1.62 looks fairly priced.

Context

Three of those four away games yielded one Burgos goal or none, so a low-scoring visit is the reasonable base case. Andorra have kept two clean sheets in ten league games, one of them at home, which gives the hosts a plausible route to controlling the scoreline. The travelling sample is only four matches, so it is a guide rather than a settled pattern.
- Burgos' 2026-27 away league record: 4 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 3 goals scored, 4 conceded (standings as of 2026-10-25).
- Burgos average 0.75 goals per away league game.
Andorra's home matches have been settled one way or the other, averaging 3.2 total goals across five games, which works against the idea of a cagey home performance. Both the wins and the defeats have been clear enough for a side that has scored and conceded at the same rate at home. Burgos' away games have been much tighter, with seven goals in four, so the two venue records pull in opposite directions.
- Andorra's 2026-27 home league record: 5 matches, 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 8 goals scored, 8 conceded (standings as of 2026-10-25).
- Andorra's overall league record: 10 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats.
The most recent supplied meeting ended in a 2-1 Andorra victory at Estadi de la FAF d'Encamp on 31 August 2025. It gives this fixture a concrete recent head-to-head reference rather than a generic historical link. That match was played more than a year before this kickoff, so it does not establish current selection or tactical conditions.
- FC Andorra won 2-1 against Burgos on 31 August 2025.
- Kim Min-Su scored in the 40th minute and Marc Domènech in the 54th before Fer Niño scored for Burgos in the 58th.
- The match was played at Estadi de la FAF d'Encamp.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:37 · Europe/BucharestFC Andorra v Burgos CF match pagewww.fcandorra.com · 31 Aug 2025
That result sits alongside Andorra wins in the two most recent meetings at their own ground, 2-1 in August 2025 and 1-0 in May 2024, so venue has mattered in this fixture. Across the five supplied meetings there are two Andorra wins, two Burgos wins and a goalless draw. None of the five was decided by more than one goal.
- Burgos 1-0 FC Andorra, Segunda División, 31 May 2026.
- FC Andorra 2-1 Burgos, 31 August 2025; FC Andorra 1-0 Burgos, 18 May 2024.
- Five supplied meetings: two Andorra wins, two Burgos wins, one draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.30fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 76.9%

−12.9ppshort

Burgos' away games are low-scoring and this fixture has historically stayed below four goals, so a tight scoreline is the likeliest shape.

Away Goals TotallostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Burgos under 1.5

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

−7.2ppshort

Burgos create little on the road and rarely reach two goals away from home, so keeping them to one or none is the base case.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

1.36fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 73.5%

−1.5ppshort

Both sides do most of their scoring after the break, and first halves in their matches have been consistently quiet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Burgos have been the steadier side all season and lose away only narrowly, while Andorra have already lost three of five at home.
- Burgos are 9th on 17 points; Andorra are 18th on 10.
- Burgos away: 1W 1D 2L, 3 scored, 4 conceded in 4 league games.
- Andorra home: 2W 0D 3L, 8 scored, 8 conceded in 5.
- Last five meetings: three Andorra wins, one Burgos win, one draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BurgosEstimated chance60%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Burgos' away games are low-scoring and this fixture has historically stayed below four goals, so a tight scoreline is the likeliest shape.
- Four of the last five meetings finished with two goals or fewer, none above three.
- Burgos away games average 1.75 total goals (0.75 for, 1.0 against).
- Burgos have 4 clean sheets in 11 league matches.
- Andorra home matches average 3.2 goals, but their opponents' scoring is concentrated in a few games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Andorra are noticeably more productive at home and Burgos have only one away clean sheet, so a home goal is the likely baseline.
- Andorra have scored 8 goals in 5 home league matches.
- They were shut out in 4 of 10 league games overall, mostly away.
- Burgos have kept one clean sheet in four away games.
- Andorra scored twice in the 2-1 home win over Burgos last season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFC Andorra over 0.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Burgos create little on the road and rarely reach two goals away from home, so keeping them to one or none is the base case.
- Burgos have 3 goals in 4 away league games (0.75 per game).
- Three of those four away matches produced one Burgos goal or fewer.
- Burgos average 3.4 shots on target per match overall, 2.5 away.
- Andorra have 2 clean sheets in 10 league games, one of them at home.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBurgos under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both sides do most of their scoring after the break, and first halves in their matches have been consistently quiet.
- Andorra first halves: 0.4 goals for, 0.7 against per match.
- Burgos away first halves: 0.25 for, 0.5 against per match.
- Andorra have scored 4 first-half goals in 10 league games.
- Burgos have scored 7 first-half goals in 11 league games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams' matches sit around nine to ten corners, with Andorra in particular giving up a lot of corners at home.
- Andorra matches average 9.7 corners (4.7 for, 5.0 against).
- Burgos matches average 9.2 corners (3.9 for, 5.3 against).
- Andorra's opponents have taken 11 and 14 corners in recent away games.
- Burgos' last match produced 13 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos are a heavily booked side and Andorra's recent games have been scrappy, so the combined card count should clear five.
- Burgos average 4.4 yellow cards per match, Andorra 3.2.
- Andorra's matches average 5.5 total cards (3.2 for, 2.3 against).
- Burgos' matches average 6.8 total cards (4.4 for, 2.4 against).
- Andorra picked up 5 and 8 yellow cards in two recent away games.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both venue splits point to a busy shot count, with Andorra generating plenty at home and Burgos allowing plenty on the road.
- Andorra home matches average 29.6 total shots (21 for, 8.6 against).
- Burgos away matches average 27.5 total shots (10.3 for, 17.3 against).
- Andorra's season average is 26.6 shots per match.
- Burgos conceded 23 and 25 shots in two recent away games.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 26.5Estimated chance56%