Girona2FC Andorra0

HT 2–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 33%–67%ShotsShots 11–6On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 00:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Girona's home form against Andorra's three-match revival is the tension: the hosts need points to stay in the promotion picture, but they have drawn their last two and now face a side unbeaten in three.

Girona are still the more likely winners at Montilivi, though the 1.78 on offer asks for more than the evidence supports. A goalless first half at 3.25 is the one reviewed price that holds up.

Context

Girona changed goalkeeper at half-time of the 12 October 1-1 at Tenerife, with Krapyvtsov replacing Gazzaniga after he reported glute discomfort. Diari de Girona and EsportsDdG describe it as an overload rather than a confirmed tear, so the first-choice keeper is a genuine doubt for Andorra's visit six days later. If he misses out, Krapyvtsov would face an Andorra side that has scored in each of its last three games. The limitation is severity: an overload often clears within a week, so a change in goal is plausible rather than certain.
- Girona made a half-time goalkeeper change in the 1-1 draw at Tenerife on 12 October, with Vladyslav Krapyvtsov replacing Paulo Gazzaniga.
- Esport3 reported the change was forced, with Gazzaniga withdrawn because of glute discomfort.
- Diari de Girona and EsportsDdG reported the club hoped the problem was only an overload rather than a serious injury.
- AS noted that a confirmed injury would leave a gap in Girona's goal.
ReportedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Andorra arrive at Montilivi unbeaten in three, having taken seven of the last nine points and ended previously unbeaten Castellon's run with a 1-0 home win on 11 October. Altaveu notes the side closed matchday nine out of the relegation places on ten points, six behind the promotion zone, after three straight home defeats earlier in the season. That changes the away side's mood, but the opponent quality jumps sharply: Girona sit seventh and are unbeaten in four. Three games is a short base, so the recovery is a condition to watch rather than a settled level.
- Andorra drew at Sabadell and beat Granada and Castellon to take seven of the last nine points.
- CategoriaPlata reported that Andorra's 1-0 win over Castellon on 11 October ended the visitors' unbeaten start to the season.
- Altaveu reported Andorra closed matchday nine out of the relegation places on ten points, six behind the promotion zone.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest
FC Andorra coach Carles Manso says a more pragmatic version of his team has strengthened it after the 1-0 win over Castellon on 11 October. The club's own channels quote him arguing the side can endure different phases of a game, and Andorra Esportiu reports he has prioritised balance between attacking ambition and defensive solidity. That matters because Manso's side lost three straight at home before this run, and a cautious, compact plan away at Montilivi is plausible. The counterpoint is stylistic: Andorra average 58.8% possession and 16.1 shots per game, so a fully reactive approach would run against their season profile.
- Carles Manso said after the Castellon win that a more pragmatic version of the team had enriched it.
- The FC Andorra coach added that the side had shown it can handle many different phases of a game.
- Andorra Esportiu reported he has sought a balance between attacking ambition and defensive solidity.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Girona sit seventh on 15 points after the Tenerife draw, one point outside the promotion play-off places, and begin a run in which four of their next five fixtures are at Montilivi. RTVE notes they host Andorra next, while a Girona-focused account argued before the sequence that anything below ten points from fifteen would be a failure. The fixture therefore carries more than routine mid-table weight for the home side, and Girona have won two of their last three at home. It is still October and the gap is one point, so the stakes are real but not decisive.
- RTVE's report on the Tenerife draw placed Girona seventh on 15 points, one point outside the play-off places.
- The same report noted that Girona host Andorra in the next round.
- A Girona-focused account noted in September that four of the next five fixtures were at Montilivi and set a ten-point target from fifteen.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Girona or Draw

1.22fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

−6.0ppshort

Girona are the stronger side at home and Andorra concede regularly on the road, so the home win is the most likely single result. Girona's difficulty turning control into wins and Andorra's tighter recent shape keep the draw firmly in play.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.78
The read
Girona are the stronger side at home and Andorra concede regularly on the road, so the home win is the most likely single result.
- Girona home: 2W 2D 1L, 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home game
- Andorra away: 1W 1D 2L, 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded per away game
- Girona sit 7th on 15 points; Andorra 17th on 10
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGironaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half output on both sides makes the half-time draw the single most likely outcome.
- Girona average 0.8 first-half goals at home; Andorra 0.5 away
- Andorra's away first-half goals conceded average is 0.25
- Girona's home first-half goals conceded average is 0.0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Andorra's away second halves have leaked goals, favouring Girona after the break.
- Girona home second-half goals for and against both average 1.0
- Andorra away second-half conceded average is 1.5
- Andorra concede 1.11 second-half goals per game overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGironaEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Girona are the stronger side at home and Andorra concede regularly on the road, so the home win is the most likely single result. Girona's difficulty turning control into wins and Andorra's tighter recent shape keep the draw firmly in play.
- Girona home: 2W 2D 1L, 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home game
- Andorra away: 1W 1D 2L, 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded per away game
- Girona have drawn 3 of 9 league games, including 0-0 at home to Mallorca
- Andorra drew 0-0 away at Sabadell in their most recent away match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGirona or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's home first halves have been solid and slightly more productive than Andorra's away starts. Low first-half output on both sides makes the half-time draw the single most likely outcome.
- Girona average 0.8 first-half goals at home and 0.0 conceded
- Andorra average 0.5 first-half goals away and 0.25 conceded
- Girona average 0.8 first-half goals at home; Andorra 0.5 away
- Andorra's away first-half goals conceded average is 0.25
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGirona or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both sides' home and away games sit near three goals, and Andorra's away defence concedes enough to push the total up.
- Girona home games average 2.8 total goals; Andorra away games average 3.0
- Girona overall average 2.67 goals per game; Andorra 3.11
- Andorra have conceded 7 goals in 4 away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Girona usually score at home while Andorra find a goal in around half their away games, making both teams scoring the marginal call.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Girona's 9 games and 5 of Andorra's 9
- Girona home games have both teams scoring in 3 of 5
- Andorra average 1.25 goals away
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's home scoring rate puts two or more goals within reach against an Andorra side conceding regularly away.
- Girona average 1.8 goals across five home games (9 scored)
- Andorra concede 1.75 goals per away game
- Girona have scored 15 goals in 9 league matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGirona over 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andorra's away output is modest and they were blanked in half their road games.
- Andorra failed to score in 2 of 4 away games
- Andorra average 1.25 away goals and 3.0 corners per away game
- Girona kept clean sheets in 2 of 5 home games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Andorra under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Girona have kept a home clean sheet in under half their games, so Andorra scoring is the more likely outcome.
- Girona conceded in 3 of 5 home games
- Andorra scored in 2 of 4 away games
- Girona have conceded 9 goals in 9 league matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Andorra to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is expected given the combined first-half rates on each side.
- Girona home first-half total (for plus against) averages 0.8 per game
- Andorra away first-half total averages 0.75 per game
- Andorra scored a first-half goal in the 1-0 win over Castellon
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A goalless or one-sided first half is much more likely than both teams scoring before the break.
- Girona home first-half goals against average is 0.0
- Andorra average 0.5 first-half goals away
- Girona average 0.8 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A single second-half goal or none is a common outcome across these matches.
- Girona home second-half totals average 2.0 goals per game
- Andorra away second-half totals average 2.25 goals per game
- Andorra average 0.5 second-half goals in their away games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Andorra's away matches and Girona's home matches both point to around ten corners in total.
- Girona home corners average 5.0 with opponents at 4.8
- Andorra away corners average 3.0 with opponents at 7.75
- Andorra's away opponents averaged 11, 14 and 2 corners in recent games
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shot volumes in the relevant home and away splits both sit below the line.
- Girona home total shots average 28.6 per game
- Andorra away total shots average 25.25 per game
- Andorra took 4 and 6 shots in two recent away games
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 30.5Estimated chance63%