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Predictions graded

Burgos1FC Andorra0

HT 1–0Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 11–13On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 2–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 May 2026, 18:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Burgos’ playoff motivation and strong home defense make them hard to beat, but Andorra’s recent H2H edge and competitive pride suggest a tight, low-scoring game.

The best value is under 2.5 goals (+15.4 point edge) and the first-half draw (+13 point edge), while the home win is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Burgos are 7th on 69 points before kickoff, still alive for the playoff.
- Coach Luis Miguel Ramis said his side had to win and wait on other results.
- The club launched a special ticket offer and asked fans to make El Plantío a pressure cooker.
Coach Carles Manso said Andorra were chasing the club's best-ever points total in professional football.
- Thomas Carrique said Andorra are very competitive and want to finish with a good image.
- Andorra's recent away win at Leganés and draw at Granada show they can compete against motivated sides.
Andorra won the last two H2Hs: 2-1 at home and 1-0 at home.
- Burgos have scored just one goal in the last three H2Hs.
- Four of the last five H2Hs had under 2.5 goals.
Burgos home record: 9W-8D-3L, 24 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- Last 5 matches: 3W-2D-0L, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Four clean sheets in the last five matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos have strong home form and playoff motivation, but Andorra's recent H2H edge and competitive pride keep the home win probability moderate.
- Burgos home record this season: 9W-8D-3L, 24 goals scored, 12 conceded in 20 matches.
- Burgos last 5 matches: 3W-2D-0L, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- FC Andorra away record: 8W-4D-8L, 31 goals scored, 28 conceded in 20 matches.
- H2H last 5: Burgos 2 wins, Andorra 2 wins, 1 draw; Andorra won last 2 meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBurgosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos are very hard to beat at home this season, and with playoff stakes they are unlikely to lose against a mid-table Andorra side.
- Burgos home record: only 3 losses in 20 matches.
- Burgos last 15 matches: 8W-5D-2L.
- FC Andorra away record: 8 losses in 20 matches.
- H2H at Burgos: 2 wins, 1 draw in last 3 home meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBurgos or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos' tendency to draw at half-time at home and Andorra's competitive first halves suggest a level scoreline at the break.
- Burgos home first half record: led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed in 7%.
- FC Andorra away first half record: led at HT in 40% of matches, trailed in 20%.
- Burgos last 15 matches: 7 draws at HT.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at HT.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos' superior motivation and home advantage could see them edge the second half, but Andorra's attacking threat makes this a low-confidence call.
- Burgos home second half record: scored 1.2 goals per game, conceded 0.6.
- FC Andorra away second half record: scored 1.55 goals per game, conceded 1.4.
- Burgos last 5 matches: 3 second-half wins, 2 draws.
- H2H: Burgos won second half in 2 of last 5.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBurgosEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos' defensive solidity at home and the historically tight H2H meetings strongly point to a low-scoring affair.
- Burgos home matches: 24 goals in 20 games (1.2 per game), 12 conceded (0.6 per game).
- Burgos last 15 matches: 1.2 goals scored, 0.5 conceded on average.
- FC Andorra away matches: 31 goals in 20 games (1.55 per game), 28 conceded (1.4 per game).
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos' strong home defense and Andorra's occasional away blanks make it likely that at least one side fails to score.
- Burgos home clean sheets: 10 in 20 matches.
- Burgos last 15 matches: 0.5 goals conceded on average.
- FC Andorra away: failed to score in 5 of 20 away matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos' recent defensive form and home record give them a good chance to shut out an Andorra side with nothing tangible to play for.
- Burgos home clean sheets: 10 in 20 matches (50%).
- Burgos last 5 matches: 4 clean sheets.
- FC Andorra away: scored in 15 of 20 matches, but only 1.55 goals per game.
- H2H: Burgos kept a clean sheet in 1 of last 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Andorra not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, and Burgos' strong first-half defense at home makes multiple first-half goals unlikely.
- Burgos first half goals at home: 0.7 per game on average.
- Burgos first half goals conceded at home: 0.3 per game.
- FC Andorra first half goals away: 0.9 per game.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the expected tight, low-scoring game should limit corner opportunities.
- Burgos home corners: 3.7 per game on average.
- FC Andorra away corners: 5.1 per game on average.
- Burgos last 15 matches: average total corners 7.4.
- H2H last 5: average total corners 7.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes nature for Burgos and Andorra's competitive pride could lead to a physical contest with several cards.
- Burgos home yellow cards: 2.4 per game on average.
- FC Andorra away yellow cards: 2.8 per game on average.
- Burgos last 15 matches: average total cards 5.2.
- H2H last 5: average total cards 5.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-1FC AndorravBurgosAug 31, 2025SEG

L1-0FC AndorravBurgosMay 18, 2024SEG

D0-0BurgosvFC AndorraNov 25, 2023SEG

W2-1BurgosvFC AndorraJan 15, 2023SEG

W0-1FC AndorravBurgosOct 12, 2022SEG

Burgos: 2 clean sheetsFC Andorra: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Burgos	41	19	12	10	47-33	69	WWDDD
13	FC Andorra	41	16	10	15	62-53	58	LLWLW

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Burgos

W2-0Cultural LeonesaMay 24SEG

W1-0Granada CFMay 16SEG

D0-0AlmeriaMay 9SEG

D0-0Real Sociedad IIMay 3SEG

D1-1Deportivo La CorunaApr 25SEG

L1-3CastellónApr 18SEG

W1-0Sporting GijonApr 11SEG

W3-2AlbaceteApr 4SEG

D1-1AD Ceuta FCApr 1SEG

W1-0ValladolidMar 28SEG

W4-0CordobaMar 22SEG

D0-0EibarMar 15SEG

W2-0MirandesMar 7SEG

W1-0ZaragozaFeb 28SEG

L0-1Racing SantanderFeb 22SEG

FC Andorra

L0-2AD Ceuta FCMay 24SEG

L1-2Deportivo La CorunaMay 17SEG

W5-1Las PalmasMay 10SEG

L0-1AlbaceteMay 1SEG

W4-0LeganesApr 26SEG

W1-0ValladolidApr 19SEG

W1-0CadizApr 12SEG

W6-2Racing SantanderApr 5SEG

D3-3MalagaApr 1SEG

W4-0Cultural LeonesaMar 29SEG

L0-1EibarMar 21SEG

D1-1Granada CFMar 15SEG

W1-0Sporting GijonMar 8SEG

W4-1CordobaMar 2SEG

W2-1ZaragozaFeb 22SEG

Squad & Injuries

Burgos

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

FC Andorra

26 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Burgos or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Burgos

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Burgos

FC Andorra

Squad & Injuries

Burgos

FC Andorra