Burgos3Ceuta1

HT 1–1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 7–12On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Burgos are likely to beat a depleted Ceuta side, but the home win odds offer no value.

The best betting angle is 'Ceuta clean sheet - No' at 1.55, where the model sees an 85% probability versus the market's 64.5%. Over 2.5 goals is a secondary lean, but avoid the heavily juiced first-half markets.

Context

Ceuta are 22nd in La Liga 2 after four rounds, with no wins and only one goal scored.
They have conceded 12 goals, including five in a 5-1 loss at FC Andorra on 15 August. This poor defensive record suggests Burgos, who have scored five goals in two home games, can create chances. However, Ceuta's desperation for points may lead to a more cautious approach.
- Ceuta lost 0-2 at home to Celta de Vigo II on 5 September.
- Ceuta lost 0-3 away to Mallorca on 30 August.
- Ceuta lost 1-5 away to FC Andorra on 15 August.
Ceuta centre-back Albert Caparrós is suspended after his 88th-minute red card against Celta Fortuna on 5 September. He had not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, while Carlos Hernández started in the same position in all five.
His suspension removes a central-defence option at a time when Adrián Lapeña is also unavailable. Carlos Hernández is the established replacement, but the depth behind him is thinner, which may force Ceuta into an unfamiliar pairing or limit in-game defensive changes.
- LaLiga's match record lists Albert Caparrós' 88th-minute red card against Celta Fortuna on 5 September.
- José Juan Romero's Burgos briefing listed Caparrós among Ceuta's absences through suspension.
- Albert Caparrós started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Carlos Hernández started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Albert Caparrós did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:05 · Europe/BucharestLaLiga match recordwww.laliga.com · 5 Sep 2026El Faro de Ceutaelfarodeceuta.es · 9 Sep 2026
Ceuta defender Adrián Lapeña remains on the injury list for the trip to El Plantío. He started two of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His continued absence compounds the loss of Caparrós, leaving Ceuta with fewer established central-defence options. The team may have to rely on less experienced cover or adjust the back line, which could affect their defensive organisation against Burgos.
- El Faro de Ceuta listed Lapeña among the injured players unavailable to Romero for Burgos.
- Ceuta TV also reported that Lapeña would not be available for the match.
- Adrián Lapeña started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:05 · Europe/BucharestEl Faro de Ceutaelfarodeceuta.es · 9 Sep 2026Ceuta TVwww.ceutatv.com · 9 Sep 2026
Burgos are 13th with five points, having won one and drawn one at home.
They beat Cordoba 3-2 on 16 August and drew 2-2 with Real Sociedad II on 31 August. Their home attack has been productive, but they have also conceded four goals in those games, so Ceuta may find some openings.
- Burgos won 3-2 at home to Cordoba on 16 August.
- Burgos drew 2-2 at home to Real Sociedad II on 31 August.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Burgos

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Ceuta's away defensive record is dreadful (0W 0D 2L, 8 conceded) and they are missing two central defenders, but the odds already price Burgos as a strong favourite.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Burgos or Draw

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.8%

−4.8ppshort

Burgos are unbeaten at home and Ceuta have lost all four league games, but the double chance price leaves no cushion against our estimate.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Burgos or Draw

1.15fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 87%

−17.0ppshort

Burgos are unlikely to trail at half-time based on their home first-half record, but the odds are extremely short and offer negative value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Burgos are likely to score, and Ceuta may find the net against a Burgos side that has conceded in most games.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a decent chance of scoring in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos' solid home form and Ceuta's dreadful away defensive record make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Burgos home record this season: 1W 1D 0L, 5 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Ceuta away record this season: 0W 0D 2L, 1 goal scored, 8 conceded.
- Ceuta overall form: LLLL, 1 goal scored, 12 conceded in 4 matches.
- Burgos overall form: DDLW, 5 goals scored, 5 conceded in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBurgosEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ceuta's winless start and Burgos' home resilience, Burgos or Draw is a very safe double chance.
- Burgos are unbeaten at home this season (1W 1D).
- Ceuta have lost all 4 league matches this season.
- Ceuta have conceded 12 goals in 4 matches, including 8 in 2 away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBurgos or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos have a slight first-half edge, but the probability is low due to the high chance of a draw at the break.
- Burgos lead at half-time in 20% of matches overall.
- Ceuta trail at half-time in 33% of matches overall.
- Burgos average 0.7 first-half goals vs Ceuta's 0.6, but Ceuta concede 0.7 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBurgosEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos may edge the second half as Ceuta tire and their defensive absences take a toll.
- Burgos have a positive goal difference in the second half this season (5-5 overall, 0.7 first-half goals for).
- Ceuta have conceded many goals in the second half (12 total, 0.7 first-half conceded).
- Burgos are stronger at home in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBurgosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos winning both halves is possible but not highly likely given their moderate first-half scoring.
- Burgos lead at half-time in 20% of matches and win 20% overall.
- Ceuta trail at half-time in 33% and lose 100% of matches.
- Burgos home advantage increases chance of leading at both intervals.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBurgos/BurgosEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos winning both halves is unlikely because they rarely dominate an entire match.
- Burgos have won both halves in 0 of 4 matches this season.
- Ceuta have lost both halves in 2 of 4 matches.
- Burgos average 0.7 first-half goals and 0.3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostBurgosEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos are unlikely to be trailing at half-time, making Burgos or Draw a solid first-half double chance.
- Burgos lead at half-time in 20% of matches and draw at half-time in 67%.
- Ceuta trail at half-time in 33% and draw at half-time in 27%.
- Burgos are unbeaten at home in the first half this season.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBurgos or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have been high-scoring, especially Ceuta's leaky defense, suggesting over 2.5 goals.
- Ceuta's away matches average 4.5 total goals (9 goals in 2 games).
- Burgos' home matches average 4.5 total goals (9 goals in 2 games).
- Ceuta have conceded 12 goals in 4 matches, an average of 3.0 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos are likely to score, and Ceuta may find the net against a Burgos side that has conceded in most games.
- Burgos have scored in 3 of 4 league matches this season.
- Ceuta have scored in only 1 of 4 league matches, but Burgos have conceded in 3 of 4.
- Burgos home matches: both teams scored in 1 of 2 (5-4 aggregate).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a decent chance of scoring in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Burgos average 0.7 first-half goals per match overall.
- Ceuta average 0.6 first-half goals per match overall.
- Ceuta concede an average of 0.7 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but the overall high-scoring trend could push this over 1.5.
- Burgos average 0.3 second-half goals per match (1.0 total - 0.7 first half).
- Ceuta average 0.5 second-half goals per match (1.1 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined average second-half goals: 0.8 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is less likely than at least one failing to score before the break.
- Burgos average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.5 first-half goals against.
- Ceuta average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.7 first-half goals against.
- Combined probability of both scoring in first half is moderate but less than 50%.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burgos have a decent chance of a clean sheet given Ceuta's scoring struggles, but it's not highly probable.
- Burgos have kept 1 clean sheet in 4 matches overall.
- Ceuta have failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
- Ceuta average only 0.25 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCeuta not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ceuta are very unlikely to keep a clean sheet given their defensive record and missing defenders.
- Ceuta have conceded in all 4 matches this season.
- Burgos have scored in 3 of 4 matches.
- Ceuta's defensive absences further weaken their backline.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBurgos to scoreEstimated chance85%