Burgos1Sabadell0

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 13–7On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 10–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 01:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Burgos host Sabadell, fifth on 16 points but with one away win, three away draws and 0.6 goals per away game; defender Edgar González is suspended.

Burgos have lost their last two, though their home record is 4-1-1. Burgos to win at 2.63, Burgos to win or draw at 1.45 and a first-half goal at 1.45 are worth the price; Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 and no on both teams to score at 1.62 are not.

Context

Burgos arrive on a two-game losing run, beaten 2-1 at Almería on 3 October and 0-1 at home by Granada on 12 October. In the Granada defeat Sergio Francisco cited 20 shots, two disallowed goals and the referee's stoppages, framing the loss as poor fortune rather than poor play. A third straight defeat against a promoted side would raise the temperature around a coach whose in-game changes some supporters questioned after that match. No club statement supports any threat to his position, so this is pressure and mood rather than a confirmed management change.
- Burgos lost 2-1 at Almería on 3 October and 0-1 at home to Granada on 12 October, and Sergio Francisco said his team lacked efficiency after dominating the chances while criticising the referee's late stoppages (Cadena SER Burgos and COPE Burgos, 13 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Sabadell are newly promoted but sit fifth on 16 points after nine rounds, described locally as the revelation of the early season. Their 2-1 win at Ceuta on 10 October was a first away victory, achieved with ten men for the last 40 minutes after Edgar González's dismissal. Away form was the unproven part of their start before that match, so the trip to Burgos tests whether the result travels. It frames the fixture as a measuring stick for a promoted side facing one of the division's established upper-half clubs.
- Sabadell sat fifth on 16 points after nine rounds, with their 2-1 win at Ceuta on 10 October a first away victory of the season (La Categoria de Plata, 10 October 2026).
- Ferran Costa's side played the final 40 minutes at Ceuta with ten men after a red card (Esports RAC1, 10 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Edgar González was sent off for a second yellow card in the 53rd minute at Ceuta and is suspended for this fixture. He started that game in central defence and had scored at Celta Fortuna on 26 September, so Sabadell lose a first-choice defender for a trip to a side that dominates territory at home. A single-match ban and an otherwise available squad limit the disruption, and Ferran Costa has already rotated his back line this season. The change still forces at least one alteration against a Burgos team that had 20 attempts on goal last time out.
- Edgar González was shown a second yellow in the 53rd minute at Ceuta and was sent off (Esports RAC1, 10 October 2026).
- He was listed in Ferran Costa's starting XI for that game (Diari de Sabadell, 10 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Ángel Baena scored both Sabadell goals in the 2-1 win at Ceuta, the second set up by Pere Pons, and took his tally to three in arlequinat colours. The brace came while Sabadell played the last 40 minutes with ten men, showing a direct outlet that survives pressure. Burgos have just conceded at El Plantío for the first time in 16 home league games, so an in-form forward is a plausible attacking route. Sabadell's goals have been shared across the squad, so Baena is one threat inside a collective attack rather than the side's only plan.
- Ángel Baena scored both Sabadell goals in the 2-1 win at Ceuta on 10 October, the second set up by Pere Pons (La Categoria de Plata, 10 October 2026).
- Radio Sabadell reported the double took him to three goals for the club, and supporters voted him MVP of the Ceuta match (12 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
Burgos' stronger home scoring against Sabadell's low away output makes the hosts the more likely winner.
- Burgos home split: 4W-1D-1L, averaging 1.67 goals per home game
- Sabadell away split: 1W-3D-1L, averaging 0.6 goals per away game
- Burgos overall 6W-2D-3L in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBurgosEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Half-time parity fits Sabadell's habit of tight away games.
- Burgos home first halves average 1.83 combined goals
- Sabadell away first halves average 1.2 combined goals
- Sabadell drew 3 of 5 away games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Very few second-half goals in both teams' matches point to a level closing period.
- Burgos home second halves average 0.83 combined goals
- Sabadell average 0.2 second-half goals away
- Sabadell have not conceded a second-half away goal
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Burgos' stronger home scoring against Sabadell's low away output makes the hosts the more likely winner. Sabadell's away record is built on low-scoring draws and Burgos' recent defeats came by single goals.
- Burgos home split: 4W-1D-1L, averaging 1.67 goals per home game
- Sabadell away split: 1W-3D-1L, averaging 0.6 goals per away game
- Sabadell have drawn 4 of 9 league games, 3 of 5 away
- Sabadell conceded only 0.8 goals per away game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBurgos or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos start home games strongly while Sabadell rarely lead early on the road. Half-time parity fits Sabadell's habit of tight away games.
- Burgos average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Sabadell average 0.4 first-half goals away
- Burgos home first halves average 1.83 combined goals
- Sabadell away first halves average 1.2 combined goals
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBurgos or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams' matches are low-scoring, with Sabadell's away games especially short on goals.
- Burgos competitive matches average 2.27 combined goals
- Sabadell competitive matches average 1.89 combined goals
- Sabadell away games average 1.4 combined goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Sabadell's away scoring is sparse and both defenses have kept clean sheets often.
- Sabadell scored in only 2 of 5 away games
- Burgos kept 4 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Sabadell kept 4 clean sheets in 9 league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams' first halves usually contain at least one goal.
- Burgos average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Sabadell average 0.6 first-half goals overall
- Burgos conceded first-half goals in 7 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos find the net regularly at home, so Sabadell are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Burgos average 1.67 goals at home
- Burgos scored in 5 of 6 home matches
- Sabadell conceded in 3 of 5 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBurgos to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos often finish home games with a single goal or none.
- Burgos average 1.67 goals per home game
- Burgos scored one goal or none in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Sabadell kept 2 clean sheets in 5 away games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBurgos under 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos' low home corner output keeps the total around the line.
- Burgos home games average 6.8 total corners
- Burgos average 2.67 home corners
- Sabadell away games average 8.4 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' home and away shot totals sit at or below the line.
- Burgos home games average 25.0 total shots
- Sabadell away games average 22.8 total shots
- Burgos average 11.0 shots per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 25.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's low away on-target output and Burgos' modest home figure keep the total down.
- Burgos home shots on target average 3.83
- Sabadell away shots on target average 2.4
- Sabadell away games average 5.8 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up a fair number of yellows and Sabadell were recently reduced to ten men.
- Burgos average 2.64 yellows, opponents 2.18
- Sabadell average 3.11 yellows, opponents 2.22
- Sabadell away games average 5.0 yellows and had a red card at Ceuta
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance55%