FC Andorra5Ceuta1

HT 1–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 25–5On targetOn target 11–1CornersCorners 2–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 23:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Ceuta or the double chance (Draw or Ceuta) as the top value plays, with the away win at 4.33 offering a 19-point edge.

Under 2.5 goals is also worth considering at 2.05. Avoid Andorra on the 1x2 and first-half result, as the market overprices their chances given late registration chaos and the sale of key attacker Josep Cerdà.

Context

The block was lifted on 4 August, just 11 days before the opener.
- Ten summer arrivals were unable to be registered while the block was active.
- The club had to settle debts with former coach Eder Sarabia and his assistant.
Cerdà scored 19 goals in 66 appearances for Andorra.
- The sale was confirmed on 7 August, eight days before the match.
- He was a regular contributor in Segunda División.
Ceuta started Guille Vallejo, Matos, Carlos Hernández, Daniel Más, Petxarroman, Marino, Josema, Kuki Zalazar, Álex Camacho, Sadik and Teguia against Málaga.
- They won that friendly 2-1.
- Andorra's pre-season was disrupted by registration issues.
The match was played on 24 May 2026.
- Ceuta won 2-0 away.
- Andorra had a red card in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ceuta's recent H2H win and more settled pre-season give them a slight edge over an Andorra side dealing with late registration and the sale of a key attacker.
- Ceuta won the most recent H2H 2-0 away at FC Andorra on 2026-05-24.
- Ceuta's last 5 Segunda División matches: W-D-W-D-D (unbeaten).
- FC Andorra lost 0-2 at home to Ceuta in that H2H and have only 1 win in their last 5 competitive home matches.
- FC Andorra's pre-season was disrupted by a registration block lifted only 11 days before the opener.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCeutaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ceuta's solid recent form and Andorra's home struggles make the away side or draw the safer double chance.
- Ceuta are unbeaten in their last 5 Segunda División matches (W-D-W-D-D).
- FC Andorra have lost 3 of their last 5 competitive home matches.
- Ceuta won the most recent H2H 2-0 away.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or CeutaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, and the recent H2H supports a drawn first half.
- FC Andorra led at half-time in only 27% of their last 15 matches.
- Ceuta led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- The last H2H was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Ceuta win is a plausible scenario given Ceuta's second-half strength and Andorra's home fragility.
- Ceuta have won 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- FC Andorra have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Ceuta's away form includes a 2-0 win at Andorra in the last H2H.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/CeutaEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent H2H was low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- FC Andorra average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match in their last 15.
- Ceuta average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match in their last 15.
- The last H2H ended 2-0, and 3 of Ceuta's last 5 league matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andorra's attacking inconsistency and Ceuta's defensive solidity in key games suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- FC Andorra failed to score in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Ceuta kept a clean sheet in their most recent H2H against Andorra.
- Ceuta have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- FC Andorra average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded in their last 15.
- Ceuta average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15.
- The last H2H had 0 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to see more goals as both teams push for a result, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- FC Andorra score 1.0 goals per second half on average (total 1.4 - 0.4 first half).
- Ceuta score 0.5 goals per second half on average (total 1.2 - 0.7 first half).
- Combined second-half scoring average is 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low corner counts, suggesting a total under 9.5 corners is likely.
- FC Andorra average 3.9 corners per match and concede 3.0 opponent corners.
- Ceuta average 3.0 corners per match and concede 4.5 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 7-8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high card averages and the recent H2H was card-heavy, supporting over 4.5 cards.
- FC Andorra average 2.7 yellow cards per match.
- Ceuta average 2.8 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 5.5, and the last H2H had 9 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 33% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FC Andorra has been highly reliable when projected to exceed 4.5 cards

FC Andorra has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent Over 4.5 cards predictions. The average estimated probability was 59.3%, with 2.4 expected fulfilments, indicating a strong overperformance. The current prediction of 52% sits below the historical range of 55-62%, suggesting the market may be underestimating this pattern.

Recent evidence for FC Andorra4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 May·La Liga 2