Coritiba0Gremio RS1

HT 0–0Mon 26 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 12–17On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 5–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Gremio have not won any of 15 Serie A away matches this season, yet Coritiba's own run of heavy defeats makes a home win no formality.

Coritiba avoiding defeat is the likelier result, but at 1.33 it asks too much. The two prices that hold up are over 2.5 goals at 1.83 and over 9.5 corners at 1.60; Gremio under 1.5 goals at 1.40 is roughly fair.

Context

The published travelling-group information on 25 October names W. Kannemann as suspended for this fixture. That removes one named defender from Grêmio's available options in Curitiba. The available squad reporting does not identify his replacement or establish the revised defensive pairing.
- The 25-player travelling group listed W. Kannemann as suspended.
- Separate pre-match squad coverage also listed Kannemann among Grêmio's five absences.
ReportedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:07 · Europe/Bucharest
The last meeting finished 1-0 to Gremio on 26 April 2026, and their previous visit to Couto Pereira ended 2-1 in their favour in November 2023. The 5-1 win in June 2023 came in Porto Alegre, so home advantage does not explain the whole run. It is the strongest argument that Coritiba will not simply take the points.
- 2026-04-26: Gremio 1-0 Coritiba, Serie A.
- 2023-11-01: Coritiba 1-2 Gremio, Serie A.
- 2023-06-25: Gremio 5-1 Coritiba; 2021-01-31: Coritiba 1-1 Gremio, Serie A.
Every one of those eight home games produced a goal for the visitors, and seven had both teams scoring. That record sits awkwardly against Gremio's away output of nine goals in 15 league matches, so the home defence alone does not settle the game. It does mean Coritiba rarely close a match out at 1-0.
- Eight home matches tracked between 25 May and 12 October 2026: 7 scored, 8 conceded, no clean sheet.
- Both teams scored in seven of those eight home matches.
- Averages across the sample: 1.63 goals for and 1.75 against at home.
The 25-player travelling group reported on 25 October includes Matheus Nascimento as a returnee. His inclusion expands Grêmio's available attacking options after the previous fixture. The group announcement does not establish whether he will start or how many minutes he is expected to play.
- The travelling-group list named Matheus Nascimento as back for the Coritiba match.
- A second squad update also identified Matheus Nascimento as returning.
ReportedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:07 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gremio have not won away all season, so Coritiba avoiding defeat is the more likely home outcome.
- Gremio are 0-5-10 away in Serie A this season, scoring 9 and conceding 23.
- Coritiba are 5-5-5 at home, while Gremio sit 18th and without an away win.
- Gremio won the last meeting 1-0, but that was at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCoritiba or DrawEstimated chance66%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Gremio's away scoring is very limited, making under 1.5 goals for them the safer side of their total.
- Gremio average 0.57 goals per away match, scoring in only 3 of 7 tracked away games.
- They failed to score in four of those seven away matches.
- Coritiba have conceded in all eight home matches, but Gremio's away output remains low.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGremio RS under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Coritiba usually find a goal at home, and Gremio's away defence has rarely shut opponents out.
- Coritiba have scored in seven of eight home matches, averaging 1.63 home goals.
- Gremio have kept one clean sheet in seven away matches.
- Coritiba scored in each of their last three home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCoritiba over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Coritiba's home games have been open, and Gremio's recent matches have also tended to produce goals.
- Coritiba home matches average 3.38 total goals: 1.63 for and 1.75 against.
- Gremio's last six matches produced 6, 2, 2, 0, 5 and 3 goals.
- Coritiba have conceded in all eight home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams' recent first halves usually contain at least one goal, making over 0.5 the probable side.
- Coritiba first halves average 1.0 total goal; Gremio first halves average 1.13.
- Nine of the last 12 combined recent matches had a first-half goal.
- Gremio have scored in the first half in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams' matches have generally produced double-digit corners, so over 9.5 is the likely side.
- Coritiba matches average 11.3 total corners; Gremio matches average 10.9.
- Recent total corners in Coritiba games: 15, 15, 5, 14, 11, 12.
- Recent total corners in Gremio games: 17, 11, 14, 11, 6, 8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches are consistently high-volume for shots, so over 24.5 is well supported.
- Coritiba matches average 32.4 total shots; Gremio matches average 30.9.
- All six recent Coritiba matches had over 24.5 total shots.
- Five of six recent Gremio matches had over 24.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow and generate enough shots on target for this line to be favoured.
- Coritiba matches average 9.5 shots on target; Gremio matches average 9.2.
- All six recent Coritiba matches had over 7.5 shots on target.
- Five of six recent Gremio matches had over 7.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Gremio's matches are card-heavy, and the combined recent trend supports over 4.5.
- Gremio matches average 5.8 total yellow cards; Coritiba matches average 3.7.
- Gremio's last six matches had yellow-card totals of 5, 6, 7, 10, 2, 6.
- Coritiba's last six had yellow-card totals of 1, 7, 1, 3, 7, 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance62%