Coritiba1Botafogo1

HT 1–1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides bruised by heavy recent defeats meet on Coritiba's 117th anniversary, with Botafogo's away record of one win in six and 0.5 goals a game against a Coritiba side that scores at home but has kept no clean sheet there in eight.

Coritiba look the likelier winners, and at 2.5 that price is worth something, as are Coritiba avoiding defeat at 1.5 and a goalless first half at 3.25.

Context

The change gives Coritiba a home fixture on its foundation day and moves the game to a mid-afternoon Monday kick-off instead of Sunday evening. It also follows a compressed round-29 turnaround: Coritiba lost 4-0 at Fluminense on 8 October and Botafogo lost 1-2 at home to Vasco on 7 October, leaving both clubs only a short gap to prepare. The earlier start can affect pitch conditions and the crowd more than the contest itself, and both clubs accepted the switch.
- The CBF moved the match from Sunday, 11 October to Monday, 12 October at 16:00 at Couto Pereira.
- Coritiba requested the change because 12 October is the club's 117th anniversary.
- Coritiba faced Fluminense on 8 October and Botafogo hosted Vasco on 7 October in round 29.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharestge.globo — Coritiba x Botafogo tem data e horário alterados pela 30ª rodadage.globo.com · 22 Sep 2026
Keno's likely return matters for a Coritiba attack that produced a single shot on target in the 4-0 defeat at Fluminense. Because he is on loan from Fluminense, he was ineligible for that match and has effectively been rested through it, which is why he is only now in line for the Botafogo fixture. His knee problem has interrupted his season, so the return widens the options rather than guaranteeing a start or a defined role.
- Keno returned to Coritiba training after a left-knee tendinopathy that had kept him out.
- He was unavailable for the round-29 game at Fluminense because he is on loan from that club.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Tite has publicly tied Botafogo's condition to the international window, citing Danilo's jet lag after the 2-1 home loss to Vasco, and separately admitted the team has not found defensive balance. Botafogo conceded twice in each of their last two league games, so the concern is current rather than theoretical. Tite took over mid-campaign and has had limited uninterrupted training; the October window gave him a longer block, but the effect on selection for Coritiba is not yet confirmed.
- After the 2-1 loss to Vasco on 7 October, Tite said jet lag affected players returning from national-team duty and cited Danilo.
- Tite said the team still needs to find defensive balance.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Coritiba's pink and green Sakura shirt, made with Diadora, will be worn for the first time in the Botafogo match, linking the club's 117th anniversary to the Outubro Rosa awareness campaign. It is a cultural and commercial gesture rather than a sporting change, and it does not alter preparation for either side. The only match-day note is that Coritiba will appear in a specially produced strip in front of its own supporters.
- Coritiba will debut a pink Sakura shirt, made with Diadora, against Botafogo at 16:00 on 12 October.
- The club's 117th anniversary coincides with the Outubro Rosa campaign.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Coritiba score well at home while Botafogo have won once in six away games.
- Coritiba home: 8 games, GF 1.5, GA 1.9, 3W 1D 4L
- Botafogo away: 6 games, 1W 0D 5L, GF 0.5, GA 2.33
- League: Coritiba 9th (38 pts), Botafogo 13th (35 pts); Botafogo away 4W 2D 8L
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCoritibaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals, so a level half is likely.
- Coritiba home 1H GF 0.375
- Botafogo away 1H GF 0.333
- Botafogo played a 0-0 first half twice in their last 6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Coritiba do most of their scoring after the break while Botafogo rarely score late away.
- Coritiba home 2H GF 1.125
- Botafogo away 2H GF 0.167, GA 1.0
- Coritiba scored after half-time in 3 of their last 4
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCoritibaEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba score well at home while Botafogo have won once in six away games. Botafogo can punish a Coritiba side that has yet to keep a home clean sheet.
- Coritiba home: 8 games, GF 1.5, GA 1.9, 3W 1D 4L
- Botafogo away: 6 games, 1W 0D 5L, GF 0.5, GA 2.33
- Coritiba home: 0 clean sheets in 8 games, GA 1.875
- Botafogo have scored in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCoritiba or BotafogoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba start better at home while Botafogo concede early away. Both teams score few first-half goals, so a level half is likely.
- Coritiba home 1H GF 0.375, GA 0.875
- Botafogo away 1H GF 0.333, GA 1.333
- Coritiba home 1H GF 0.375
- Botafogo away 1H GF 0.333
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCoritiba or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Coritiba's games are consistently high-scoring and both defences concede regularly.
- All six of Coritiba's last six matches had three or more goals
- Coritiba home GA 1.875; Botafogo away GA 2.33
- Coritiba's last two matches finished 0-4 and 0-5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Coritiba concede often at home and Botafogo should get chances.
- Coritiba both-scored in 6 of 8 home games
- Coritiba conceded in each of their last 5 matches
- Botafogo away GF 0.5, GA 2.33
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half averages point to at least one goal before the break.
- Coritiba home 1H total 1.25 goals per game
- Botafogo away 1H total 1.67 goals per game
- Botafogo conceded 2 first-half goals at Mirassol
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving Coritiba have produced plenty of goals recently.
- Coritiba home 2H total 2.125 goals per game
- Botafogo away 2H total 1.167 goals per game
- Coritiba conceded 3 second-half goals in each of their last two matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's home defensive record makes a clean sheet improbable.
- Coritiba 0 home clean sheets in 8 games
- Coritiba conceded in each of their last 5
- Coritiba home GA 1.875
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBotafogo to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's home scoring makes a Botafogo clean sheet unlikely.
- Coritiba home GF 1.5 across 8 games
- Botafogo away GA 2.33
- Botafogo conceded 2 or more in 4 of their last 6
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCoritiba to scoreEstimated chance81%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' matches produce around ten corners, with Botafogo conceding many away.
- Coritiba home corners 5.1, opponent 5.5
- Botafogo away corners 2.7, opponent 8.2
- Botafogo conceded 12 and 14 corners in two recent matches
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot volumes sit above the line.
- Coritiba home shots 16.1, opponent 14.4
- Botafogo away shots 11.8, opponent 20.2
- Botafogo conceded 32 shots at Vasco
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target figures point above the line.
- Coritiba home SoT 4.5, opponent 3.9
- Botafogo away SoT 4.0, opponent 7.3
- Botafogo conceded 10 on-target shots at Fluminense
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages and Coritiba's red-card record point above the line.
- Coritiba home yellows 1.4, opponent 2.9
- Botafogo away yellows 2.8, opponent 1.8
- Coritiba home red-card average 0.5 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%