Sollentuna FK2Vasalunds IF0

HT 1–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 10:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Level on 28 points with three rounds left, Sollentuna and Vasalund meet in a derby where both need a result to secure their contracts.

Sollentuna's home record makes them the likelier side to avoid defeat. Sollentuna to win or draw at 1.48 holds a case, as do a goalless first half at 3.5 and the draw at 4.0; the 1.5 on over 2.5 goals and on both teams scoring asks for more than the record supports.

Context

The anchor is Ettan's own 21 October preview, which placed the game at Sollentunavallen and framed it as an 08-derby between two clubs that need three points to secure their contracts. Because the same result moves both clubs' survival prospects, this is not a routine late-season fixture for either side, which matters when reading how they might approach a game whose outcome neither can treat as neutral. The limitation is that the urgency is the competition channel's characterisation: no coach or club has been quoted on selection or approach, and both squads are listed without reported absences, so nothing here predicts how open or cautious the match will be.
- Ettanfotboll, the competition's official account, previewed the fixture on 21 October 2026 as an "08-derby med tunga poäng på spel".
- The same preview states that @sollentunafk host @VasalundIF at Sollentunavallen on Saturday, with both teams "i desperat behov av tre poäng för att säkra kontraktet".
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Vasalund's recent record makes the danger concrete: they were beaten 0-4 at home by AFC Eskilstuna in round 27, a scoreline recorded independently by a Hammarby loan-watch account as well as by the Stockholm watcher who places them thirteenth with three matches left. Thirteenth in Ettan Norra is the relegation play-off spot, so the away side travels to Sollentuna needing points rather than managing a comfortable mid-table finish. The caveat is that the position comes from a single supporter account rather than a table published by the competition, although the Ettan preview's framing of both teams' need points the same way and the 0-4 result itself is not in doubt.
- Vasalund lost 0-4 at home to AFC Eskilstuna on 18 October 2026 in Ettan Norra round 27.
- Stockholm football watcher @MioA210 wrote on 20 October 2026 that Vasalund "ligger trettonde med tre omgångar kvar, vilket är kvalplats nedåt".
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:31 · Europe/Bucharest
The seven-match window covers Sollentuna's home league games from mid-August through early October 2026.
Four wins and three defeats without a draw in that home run argues against a level result, although the reverse fixture in August finished 1-1 and Vasalund have drawn two of six away games.
- Sollentuna home split, 15 August–9 October 2026: 7 matches, 4W-0D-3L, 12 goals scored, 11 conceded, both teams scored in 5.
That 1-1 was played at Vasalund, with Saturday's return at Sollentunavallen.
The only meeting between the sides this season was level, so Sollentuna's home edge is not backed by a recent win over this opponent; a draw fits the reverse result, even though Sollentuna have not drawn any of their seven home matches since mid-August.
- Vasalund 1-1 Sollentuna, Ettan Norra, 3 August 2026 — the only 2026 meeting in the tracked head-to-head record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's home record and Vasalund's away defending give the hosts a modest advantage in a derby where both need points.
- Sollentuna are 4W-0D-3L at home and average 1.71 goals scored there.
- Vasalund are 1W-2D-3L away and concede 2.0 goals per away match.
- Both clubs sit on 28 points, with Vasalund conceding 2.4 per match overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSollentuna FKEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates make a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Sollentuna home first-half goals for 0.71 and against 1.00.
- Vasalund away first-half goals for 0.50 and against 1.00.
- Both teams average below one first-half goal scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna have been stronger after the break at home, but Vasalund's away second-half scoring keeps the period balanced.
- Sollentuna home second-half goals for 1.00 and against 0.57.
- Vasalund away second-half goals for 1.00 and against 1.00.
- Vasalund overall second-half goals against average 1.47.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSollentuna FKEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's home record and Vasalund's away defending give the hosts a modest advantage in a derby where both need points. Vasalund's away scoring and Sollentuna's home defeats keep an away win in range despite Vasalund's poor overall record.
- Sollentuna are 4W-0D-3L at home and average 1.71 goals scored there.
- Vasalund are 1W-2D-3L away and concede 2.0 goals per away match.
- Vasalund average 1.5 goals in six away matches and scored in all six.
- Sollentuna have lost three of seven home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSollentuna FK or Vasalunds IFEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been scarce for both sides, but Sollentuna's home setting gives them a slight lead at the break. Low first-half scoring rates make a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Sollentuna home first-half goals for 0.71 and against 1.00.
- Vasalund away first-half goals for 0.50 and against 1.00.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSollentuna FK or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams' venue splits point to goals, with Vasalund's away games and Sollentuna's home games averaging above three.
- Sollentuna home matches average 3.29 total goals.
- Vasalund away matches average 3.50 total goals.
- Vasalund concede 2.4 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have scored in most of their home and away matches, and Vasalund have found the net in every away game.
- Sollentuna home both teams scored in 5 of 7 matches.
- Vasalund away both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches.
- Vasalund scored in all six away matches and Sollentuna scored in all seven home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's home scoring rate and Vasalund's away concession rate make two home goals more likely than not.
- Sollentuna average 1.71 goals at home.
- Vasalund concede 2.0 goals per away match.
- Sollentuna scored in all seven home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSollentuna FK over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's away average is low enough that under 1.5 away goals is the slightly stronger side.
- Vasalund average 1.5 goals away.
- Sollentuna concede 1.57 goals per home match.
- Sollentuna kept two clean sheets in seven home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonVasalunds IF under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal rates point to at least one goal before the break.
- Sollentuna home first-half total averages 1.71 goals.
- Vasalund away first-half total averages 1.50 goals.
- Both teams average below one first-half goal scored.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging below one first-half goal, at least one side is likely to be shut out before the break.
- Sollentuna home first-half goals for 0.71 and against 1.00.
- Vasalund away first-half goals for 0.50 and against 1.00.
- Neither side averages even one first-half goal.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal rates are higher than first-half rates for these teams, making over 1.5 a reasonable call.
- Sollentuna home second-half total averages 1.57 goals.
- Vasalund away second-half total averages 2.00 goals.
- Vasalund overall second-half goals against average 1.47.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%