New York Cosmos1Chattanooga Red Wolves1

HT 1–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Chattanooga are 20 points clear but arrive with one win in five and four blanks in their last six, and the only meeting finished 3-3.

They still look the likelier winner, though 2.4 for their win asks more than their away form and recent scoring justify. Three prices offer something: no both-teams-to-score in the first half at 1.25, no both-teams-to-score at 2.4, and a level first half at 2.38.

Context

Both teams scored three and neither kept the other out, which is the single clearest piece of evidence against a tight, low-scoring afternoon here. It is one match from two months ago, so it sets a tone rather than a pattern, and each side's more recent results carry more weight.
- Chattanooga Red Wolves 3-3 New York Cosmos, USL League One, 22 August 2026 — the only head-to-head meeting this season.
Chattanooga have done most of their winning at home, where they are 9W-2D-5L with 30 scored and 17 conceded in 16 matches.
Nine of Chattanooga's 14 league wins have come at home; on the road they have lost eight of 15 and conceded 27. New York's own home record is 5W-3D-7L, so a 20-point gap in the table does not translate directly into this fixture.
- Chattanooga away record 2026: 15 played, 5W-2D-8L, 20 scored, 27 conceded.
- Chattanooga home record 2026: 16 played, 9W-2D-5L, 30 scored, 17 conceded.
- Season totals: 31 played, 14W-4D-13L, 50 scored, 44 conceded, 46 points, 7th place.
Sixteenth-placed New York have collected 18 of their 26 points in home matches.
Their 15 home matches have produced 46 goals, and they have scored 20 in front of their own crowd, so shutting them out is not the obvious route. The counterweight is that they have still lost seven of those 15 home games and sit 19 defeats deep overall.
- New York home record 2026: 15 played, 5W-3D-7L, 20 scored, 26 conceded.
- New York away record 2026: 16 played, 2W-2D-12L, 19 scored, 39 conceded.
- Season totals: 31 played, 7W-5D-19L, 39 scored, 65 conceded, 26 points, 16th place.
Chattanooga's single win was a 3-0 home defeat of Corpus Christi on 3 October; New York's was 3-2 at home to Richmond on 27 September. Neither team has strung results together, which is why the 20-point table gap is the main thing separating them going into this one.
- New York form: D-L-L-L-W across their last five league matches.
- Chattanooga form: L-L-W-L-L across their last five league matches.
- New York beat Richmond Kickers 3-2 at home on 27 September 2026; Chattanooga beat Corpus Christi 3-0 at home on 3 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Chattanooga's stronger season and higher league position make them the more likely winner despite modest away form.
- Chattanooga are 7th with 46 points; NY Cosmos are 16th with 26.
- Chattanooga have 14 wins in 31 league matches; Cosmos have 7.
- Cosmos have conceded 26 goals in 15 home matches.
- Chattanooga's away record is 5W-2D-8L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- NY Cosmos home first halves average 0.43 goals for and 0.43 against.
- Chattanooga away first halves average 0.43 for and 1.00 against.
- Both teams' overall first-half goal averages are below 1.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cosmos have often drawn the second half recently, and Chattanooga's away second halves are low-scoring.
- NY Cosmos' last six second halves included four draws.
- Chattanooga's away second halves average 0.86 total goals.
- Chattanooga's second-half away goals for and against are both 0.43.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Home advantage and Chattanooga's ordinary away record give Cosmos a fair share of the win chance, though their season has been poor. Chattanooga's stronger season and higher league position make them the more likely winner despite modest away form.
- NY Cosmos are 5W-3D-7L at home this season, scoring 20 and conceding 26 in 15 home matches.
- The only head-to-head this season was a 3-3 draw.
- Chattanooga are 7th with 46 points; NY Cosmos are 16th with 26.
- Chattanooga have 14 wins in 31 league matches; Cosmos have 7.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNew York Cosmos or Chattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level first half the most likely single outcome. Chattanooga's modest first-half scoring meets a Cosmos side that has conceded early goals recently.
- NY Cosmos home first halves average 0.43 goals for and 0.43 against.
- Chattanooga away first halves average 0.43 for and 1.00 against.
- Chattanooga average 0.67 first-half goals overall and 0.43 away.
- NY Cosmos concede 0.80 first-half goals overall and 0.43 at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Chattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance74%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Cosmos' leaky home defense and the 3-3 head-to-head point to a moderate chance of three or more goals.
- NY Cosmos home matches average 3.43 total goals (1.43 for, 2.00 against).
- The only head-to-head produced six goals.
- Cosmos' last six league matches all had at least three goals.
- Chattanooga away matches average 2.29 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' weak home defense and their scoring record at home give both teams a reasonable route to scoring.
- Both teams scored in 10 of NY Cosmos' 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cosmos' 7 home matches.
- The only head-to-head finished 3-3.
- Cosmos have kept one clean sheet in seven home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' modest home output and recent blanks make under 1.5 team goals more likely than not.
- NY Cosmos average 1.43 goals at home.
- Cosmos scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six.
- Chattanooga concede 1.43 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNew York Cosmos under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga's away scoring is low and recent matches show little attacking return.
- Chattanooga average 0.86 goals in away matches.
- Chattanooga scored one goal or fewer in five of their last six.
- Chattanooga have four goals in their last six rows.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonChattanooga Red Wolves under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos have usually found a goal at home, making a Chattanooga clean sheet unlikely.
- NY Cosmos scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Cosmos scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches.
- The head-to-head produced three Cosmos goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNew York Cosmos to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Cosmos' recent first halves have consistently produced goals, and Chattanooga's away first halves are not blank-prone.
- NY Cosmos' last six league matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Chattanooga's away first halves average 1.43 total goals.
- NY Cosmos home first halves average 0.86 total goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes at least one team blanking before the break very likely.
- Only one of NY Cosmos' last six first halves had both teams scoring.
- None of Chattanooga's last six first halves had both teams scoring.
- Cosmos and Chattanooga average 0.43 first-half goals in the relevant home/away splits.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga's second halves have been very low-scoring, making under 1.5 the slightly stronger side.
- Chattanooga's last six second halves all had one goal or fewer.
- Chattanooga away second halves average 0.86 total goals.
- NY Cosmos have scored one or fewer second-half goals in five of their last six.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

New York Cosmos: 6/9 recent goals projections matched

6 of 9 comparable goals projections involving New York Cosmos matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for New York Cosmos9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One