New York Cosmos1Westchester SC2

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:06 Predictions graded

Predictions13–193%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 03:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Westchester lead 1-0 through Blommestijn and the market has fully priced it, so the 1.36 away win and 1.05 double chance are avoid markets with roughly 30-point negative edges.

The value is in goals: Over 2.5 at 3.00 (+27 points) is the top edge, with BTTS Yes at 2.05 and Win to Nil Away — No at 1.28 as the safest complement. Westchester's 0W-3D-10L away record and the early loss of defender J. Loura keep the outright result far less certain than the price implies.

Context

Westchester SC sit 14th in USL League One with 26 points from 26 games, six points clear of the relegation line. Their home form is strong (7 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses) but their away form is the opposite.
The split is stark: 32 goals scored and 16 conceded at home, against 12 scored and 28 conceded on the road. That gap points to a team that struggles to create and defend the same way outside its own ground. NY Cosmos, meanwhile, have won four of 11 home games, so the venue gives the home side a modest but real advantage in this matchup.
- Westchester SC away record in 2026 USL League One: 0 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses in 13 matches, with 12 goals scored and 28 conceded.
- Westchester SC home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 13 matches, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded.
- NY Cosmos home record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 11 matches, with 13 goals scored and 16 conceded.
Westchester attacker K. Blommestijn scored the opening goal at 47 minutes, putting the visitors 1-0 ahead. He has started 2 of the last 5 Westchester matches with available lineups, with D. Burko starting in his place in 2 of those 5.
The confirmed 1-0 scoreline changes the game state: the Cosmos must now chase an equaliser, while Westchester can set up to protect the lead. Blommestijn's split starting record means his role in the side is not fixed, so the goal is a single-match contribution rather than proof of a settled attacking position.
- Westchester’s official match account recorded a goal by Koen Blommestijn at 47 minutes.
- The same update listed the score as 1-0.
- K. Blommestijn started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- D. Burko started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when K. Blommestijn did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest
NY Cosmos are 16th of 17 teams in USL League One with 22 points from 25 matches, a goal difference of minus 19, and a recent form line of L-W-L-D-D.
The standings context matters because the gap to safety is thin: two points separate them from the bottom. That pressure can push a team to play more directly or take more risks at home, especially against an opponent with a poor away record. The counterweight is that NY Cosmos have won only four of 11 home games, so urgency alone does not guarantee they convert this opportunity.
- NY Cosmos are 16th in USL League One with 22 points from 25 matches, a goal difference of minus 19.
- The gap to the relegation line is two points, with Richmond Kickers 17th on 20 points.
- NY Cosmos home record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 11 matches.
Westchester SC average 1.5 goals per game and 1.1 first-half goals per game in 2026 USL League One, with 27 percent of their matches leading at half-time.
The 5-2 win over Richmond on 16 September 2026 is the clearest recent example of Westchester scoring heavily and early. But it came at home, where they have scored 32 of their 44 league goals. Their away scoring average is far lower, so the practical question is whether that first-half threat travels to NY Cosmos, who have conceded 0.7 first-half goals per game on average.
- Westchester SC beat Richmond Kickers 5-2 at home on 16 September 2026, scoring all five goals in the first half.
- Westchester SC average 1.1 first-half goals per game and have led at half-time in 27 percent of matches.
- NY Cosmos average 0.7 first-half goals conceded per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Westchester SC

1.36fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 74%

0.0ppshort

The market has fully priced the confirmed 1-0 lead, but our model still rates Westchester at only 44% to win the match outright, leaving no cushion at 1.36.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Westchester SC

1.05fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 95%

0.0ppshort

At 1.05 the market demands a 95% hit rate while our model gives draw-or-away only 66%, so the price offers no value despite the live lead.

Away Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.28fair 1.14

BetBugs 78% · Market 78.1%

0.0ppshort

Westchester's away defensive record (2.15 conceded per game, no away clean sheets implied) and Cosmos' ability to score in most matches make a Westchester win-to-nil highly improbable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Westchester's superior overall goal output and the confirmed 1-0 lead from Blommestijn (live game state) outweigh their poor away record, while Cosmos' -19 goal difference and 1.1 goals-per-game scoring rate limit their comeback capacity.
- Westchester away record 2026: 0W-3D-10L, 12 goals for, 28 against in 13 away matches
- H2H last 2 meetings: Westchester won 3-0 at home (2026-07-22) and lost 3-2 at home in the Cup (2026-05-15)
- NY Cosmos home record 2026: 4W-2D-5L, 13 scored, 16 conceded in 11 home matches
- Westchester overall goals 44 for / 44 against in 26 games vs Cosmos 31/50 in 25
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWestchester SCEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's confirmed early lead plus Cosmos' weak scoring rate (1.1 goals/game) and modest home record make a Cosmos win unlikely, so the draw-or-away double chance is the safer side of the result market.
- Westchester away: 0 wins in 13 but 3 draws, so draw is the realistic away outcome
- Cosmos last 5 league matches: L-W-L-D-D, only 1.1 goals per game average
- Cosmos home: 4W-2D-5L with 13 goals in 11 home games
- Westchester scored 5 and 4 in two of their last six matches, showing attacking upside
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Westchester SCEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Westchester's far stronger first-half scoring profile (1.1 vs 0.3) and Cosmos' 47% half-time trailing rate make the visitors the most likely half-time leader, though their own 40% trailing rate keeps confidence low.
- Westchester average 1.1 first-half goals for vs Cosmos 0.3 first-half goals for
- Cosmos leading at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailing in 47%
- Westchester leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Westchester scored 5 first-half goals in their most recent match vs Richmond
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonWestchester SCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams concentrate scoring in the first half (Westchester 1.1 of 1.5 goals, Cosmos 0.3 of 1.1), suggesting a lower-scoring second period where a draw is the most probable single outcome.
- Cosmos average 0.8 second-half goals (1.1 total minus 0.3 first half)
- Westchester average 0.4 second-half goals (1.5 total minus 1.1 first half)
- Both teams' recent matches show heavy first-half scoring concentration
- Cosmos conceded 1.0 second-half goals per game on average
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' very low first-half scoring rate (0.3 per game) and 47% half-time trailing rate make a Cosmos half-time lead unlikely, supporting draw-or-Westchester in the first-half double chance.
- Cosmos first-half record: 13% leading, 47% trailing at half-time
- Westchester first-half: 27% leading, 40% trailing at half-time
- Cosmos average only 0.3 first-half goals across last 15 matches
- Westchester scored 5 first-half goals in their most recent home match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Westchester SCEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's confirmed lead plus Cosmos' modest home record (4 wins in 11) and -19 goal difference make the +0.5 handicap on Westchester the value side.
- Westchester away: 0W-3D-10L but 3 draws give +0.5 cover value
- Cosmos home: 4W-2D-5L, only 4 home wins in 11
- Cosmos -19 goal difference vs Westchester 0
- Westchester confirmed 1-0 lead from Blommestijn's 47th-minute goal
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonWestchester SC +0.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' limited home scoring and Westchester's superior overall goal output support the visitors covering a +0.5 handicap, with the confirmed 1-0 lead reinforcing the position.
- Cosmos home record: 4W-2D-5L with 13 goals in 11 home matches
- Westchester away: 3 draws in 13 away matches, showing draw capability
- Cosmos scored 0 or 1 in 10 of their last 15 matches
- Westchester's 44 goals for in 26 games vs Cosmos 31 in 25
BetBugs · Handicap ResultwonWestchester SC +0.5Estimated chance60%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal environments (3.4 and 2.8 combined goals per game) and the two 2026 H2H meetings both clearing 2.5 support an over line, reinforced by the confirmed 1-0 scoreline already on the board.
- Westchester last 15: 1.5 goals for and 1.9 against per game, combined 3.4 goals per match
- Cosmos last 15: 1.1 for and 1.7 against, combined 2.8 goals per match
- H2H 2026: 3-0 and 3-2, both matches going over 2.5 goals
- Westchester's last six matches produced 7, 9, 3, 1, 4 and 4 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's leaky defence (1.9 conceded per game) and Cosmos' need to chase the confirmed 1-0 deficit create conditions for both teams to score, though Cosmos' low scoring rate keeps confidence moderate.
- Cosmos scored in 9 of their last 15 matches, including 4-2 and 3-3 games
- Westchester conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches, including 5-2 and 4-5
- H2H 2026-05-15: both teams scored (3-2)
- Cosmos average 1.1 goals for and Westchester 1.9 against per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's high first-half scoring rate (1.1 per game) combined with their tendency for early goals supports first-half overs, though Cosmos' very low 0.3 first-half goals average caps the probability.
- Westchester average 1.1 first-half goals for and 0.9 against in last 15
- Cosmos average 0.3 first-half goals for and 0.7 against in last 15
- Westchester's last six first-half scores: 5-0, 2-4, 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 2-0
- H2H 2026-07-22 first half produced goals in a 3-0 Westchester win
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' low scoring output (1.1 per game, 1.18 at home) and their tendency to be held to 0-1 goals in most matches make an under 1.5 home total the value side.
- Cosmos average 1.1 goals per game across last 15 matches
- Cosmos home record: 13 goals in 11 home matches (1.18 per game)
- Cosmos scored 0 or 1 goal in 10 of their last 15 matches
- Cosmos failed to score in 4 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNew York Cosmos under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's overall 1.5 goals-per-game rate and their confirmed 1-0 lead support an over 1.5 away total, though their weak away scoring record (0.92 per game) tempers confidence.
- Westchester average 1.5 goals per game across last 15 matches
- Westchester scored 5 and 4 goals in two of their last six matches
- Westchester away record: 12 goals in 13 away matches (0.92 per game)
- Westchester scored 3 goals in the 3-0 H2H win over Cosmos in July 2026
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonWestchester SC over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's poor away defensive record (2.15 goals conceded per away game) and Cosmos' need to chase the game make a Westchester clean sheet unlikely.
- Westchester conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches
- Westchester away record: 28 goals conceded in 13 away matches (2.15 per game)
- Cosmos scored in 9 of their last 15 matches
- H2H 2026-05-15: Cosmos scored 3 against Westchester
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNew York Cosmos to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Westchester's away defensive record (2.15 conceded per game) and Cosmos' ability to score in most matches make a Westchester win-to-nil highly improbable.
- Westchester away: 0 clean sheets implied by 28 goals conceded in 13 away matches
- Westchester conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches overall
- Cosmos scored in 9 of their last 15 matches including 4-2 and 3-3
- Westchester's only 2026 H2H win was 3-0 at home, not away
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion versus our 44% estimate; the price already reflects the confirmed 1-0 lead.

Prediction history

New York Cosmos Over 2.5 projections have matched 6 of 9 recent outcomes

New York Cosmos fulfilled 6 of 9 Over 2.5 goal projections in the supplied evidence. The 6 matched outcomes came at an average estimated probability of 60.8, while the 3 misses averaged 60.0, a narrow gap that indicates the threshold was not strongly separated by probability level. The current 60% projection sits within the historical range of 60 to 65, and the split between home and away fulfillment was 2 of 4 at home versus 4 of 5 away.

Recent evidence for New York Cosmos9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One