Fort Wayne FC2New York Cosmos4

HT 0–2Sat 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Fort Wayne are strong at home and motivated by the playoff race, but the best value lies in goals markets: Over 2.5 goals at 2.80 (model 60% vs implied 35.7%) and Both Teams to Score at 2.40 (55% vs 41.7%) offer clear edges.

Avoid backing New York or the draw/double chance, as their away form is dire and the prices are inflated.

Context

Fort Wayne sit 8th with 33 points and are in the playoff picture. Cosmos are 16th with 19 points and have struggled on the road.
Fort Wayne's home record is 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in 10 matches, with 16 goals scored and only 7 conceded. Cosmos have 1 win, 2 draws, and 9 losses in 12 away games, conceding 30 goals. This suggests Fort Wayne are likely to control the match and create more chances.
- Fort Wayne home record: 5W 3D 2L, 16 goals for, 7 against.
- Cosmos away record: 1W 2D 9L, 13 goals for, 30 against.
Fort Wayne FC entered this match eighth in the table after their September 2 win, holding the final postseason position.
The 2-0 victory over Richmond Kickers moved Fort Wayne into the eighth and final playoff spot, with 10 regular-season matches remaining. This result directly affects their hold on that place and increases the competitive incentive for the home side. The linked analysis notes Fort Wayne's strong home form and New York's poor away record, giving the hosts a clear edge, though the earlier head-to-head loss tempers confidence.
- Fort Wayne defeated Richmond Kickers 2-0 on September 2.
- The club said that result moved it into eighth place.
- The club stated that the top eight teams qualify for the postseason and that 10 regular-season matches remained.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:20 · Europe/BucharestFort Wayne FC match reportwww.fortwaynefc.com · 3 Sep 2026
Cosmos have the second-worst away defensive record in the league, with only Richmond Kickers conceding more.
Cosmos have conceded 30 goals in 12 away matches, including 3 goals in losses to Westchester SC and Forward Madison. Fort Wayne average 1.5 goals per game overall and 1.6 at home, so they are likely to find the net.
- Cosmos away goals conceded: 30 in 12 matches.
- Fort Wayne home goals per game: 1.6.
Both clubs moved from probable selection to confirmed lineups shortly before kickoff.
Fort Wayne FC announced its starting XI at 22:33 UTC and New York Cosmos published theirs at 23:03 UTC on September 5. These confirmations remove late selection uncertainty and establish the personnel available from kickoff.
- Fort Wayne FC’s official account announced that its starting XI was locked at 22:33 UTC on September 5.
- New York Cosmos’ official account published its starting XI at 23:03 UTC on September 5.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's strong home form and New York's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, though the earlier H2H loss tempers confidence.
- Fort Wayne home record: 5W-3D-2L, 16 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches
- New York away record: 1W-2D-9L, 13 goals for, 30 against in 12 matches
- Fort Wayne overall goal difference +7 vs New York -20
- H2H: New York won 2-0 at home on 2026-03-28
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFort Wayne FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's strong home form and New York's poor away form make the home side highly unlikely to lose.
- Fort Wayne home record: 5W-3D-2L (80% unbeaten at home)
- New York away record: 1W-2D-9L (only 25% unbeaten away)
- Fort Wayne overall points per game 1.5 vs New York 0.83
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFort Wayne FC or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's strong first-half scoring and New York's poor first-half record give the hosts an edge at the break.
- Fort Wayne led at halftime in 47% of matches
- New York trailed at halftime in 53% of matches
- Fort Wayne first half goals average 0.9 vs New York 0.2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFort Wayne FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's tendency to lead early and win at home supports a home/home double, though probability remains moderate.
- Fort Wayne led at halftime in 47% of matches and won 41% overall
- New York trailed at halftime in 53% and lost 61% overall
- Fort Wayne home win rate 50%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFort Wayne FC/Fort Wayne FCEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New York's away games are high-scoring and Fort Wayne's home attack is solid, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Fort Wayne home matches average 2.3 total goals (16 for, 7 against in 10)
- New York away matches average 3.58 total goals (13 for, 30 against in 12)
- New York's last 5 away matches: 3, 3, 2, 3, 3 goals total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while New York's away defense is leaky, suggesting both teams can find the net.
- Fort Wayne scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- New York scored in 8 of 12 away matches
- New York conceded in 11 of 12 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's tendency to score early and New York's first-half defensive weakness make a first-half goal likely.
- Fort Wayne first half goals average 0.9 per match overall
- New York first half goals conceded average 1.0 per match overall
- Fort Wayne led at halftime in 47% of matches, New York trailed in 53%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of at least two goals after the break.
- Fort Wayne second half goals average 0.6 per match (1.5 total - 0.9 first half)
- New York second half goals conceded average 0.9 per match (1.9 total - 1.0 first half)
- Combined second half average 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's solid home defense and New York's inconsistent away scoring give a modest chance of a home clean sheet.
- Fort Wayne kept clean sheets in 4 of 10 home matches
- New York failed to score in 4 of 12 away matches
- New York away goals average 1.08 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNew York Cosmos not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York's poor away defensive record and Fort Wayne's home scoring form make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- New York kept clean sheets in only 1 of 12 away matches
- Fort Wayne scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- Fort Wayne home goals average 1.6 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFort Wayne FC to scoreEstimated chance75%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 23% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 20% for an away win; the price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Fort Wayne FC has been highly reliable when projected Over 2.5 goals

Fort Wayne FC has fulfilled 5 of 6 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 83% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 55%, with an expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. All three home matches went Over 2.5, while away matches fulfilled 2 of 3, indicating consistent high-scoring outcomes in recent evidence.

Recent evidence for Fort Wayne FC6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One