Sarasota Paradise3Chattanooga Red Wolves2

HT 3–1Thu 20 Aug 2026, 00:44 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Chattanooga Red Wolves are the value side: away win at 2.70 (45% model vs 37% implied) and double chance at 1.57 (70% vs 64%) both offer edges.

Avoid Sarasota home win at 2.25 (30% vs 44% implied). Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00 is a secondary value play.

Context

Sarasota's last five results: LLDDL.
- They have scored only 1.1 goals per game at home this season.
- They have lost 4 of 9 home matches, matching their away loss count.
Chattanooga away record: 4W-1D-4L, 16 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- They have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- They beat Sarasota 4-1 in the most recent head-to-head.
USL League One regular season ends October 24, and this match is on August 19.
- Top eight teams qualify for playoffs, with higher seeds hosting.
- Both teams are in the playoff race, making this a six-pointer.
H2H on 2026-05-09: Chattanooga 4-1 Sarasota.
- Chattanooga led 2-1 at half time in that match.
- Sarasota have not beaten Chattanooga in their last meeting.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga's stronger overall form and away record, combined with Sarasota's poor recent run and the H2H result, give the visitors a moderate edge.
- Chattanooga away record: 4W-1D-4L, 16 goals scored, 18 conceded in 9 away matches
- Sarasota home record: 4W-1D-4L, 12 goals scored, 12 conceded in 9 home matches
- H2H last meeting: Chattanooga won 4-1 at home on 2026-05-09
- Sarasota recent form: LLDDL in last 5, Chattanooga form: WLLWW
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sarasota's inconsistent home form and Chattanooga's competitive away record, the double chance for the away side is a safer play.
- Sarasota home win rate: 44% (4/9), Chattanooga away loss rate: 44% (4/9)
- Sarasota have drawn 1 of 9 home games, Chattanooga drawn 1 of 9 away
- Combined probability of draw or away win based on form and H2H
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Chattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, and the first-half scoring rates are low, making a draw at half time a reasonable outcome.
- Sarasota leading at half time in 14% of matches, trailing in 36%
- Chattanooga leading at half time in 27%, trailing in 33%
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time (50% and 40% respectively)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Chattanooga win is a plausible sequence given the teams' half-time patterns and Chattanooga's stronger second-half performance.
- Sarasota have drawn at half time in 50% of matches, Chattanooga in 40%
- Chattanooga have won 10 of 18 matches overall
- H2H: Chattanooga won after leading at half time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Chattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and the H2H suggests an open game, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Sarasota average goals per game: 1.1 for, 1.6 against (total 2.7)
- Chattanooga average goals per game: 1.9 for, 1.5 against (total 3.4)
- H2H last meeting had 5 goals
- Both teams have scored in 6 of Sarasota's last 10 and 7 of Chattanooga's last 10
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, and the H2H supports both teams finding the net.
- Sarasota scored in 7 of last 10 matches, conceded in 8
- Chattanooga scored in 9 of last 10 matches, conceded in 7
- H2H: both teams scored in last meeting (4-1)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the first half, and Chattanooga's first-half scoring rate is decent, making a first-half goal likely.
- Sarasota first half goals: 0.2 per game, first half conceded: 0.8
- Chattanooga first half goals: 0.7 per game, first half conceded: 0.8
- Combined first half average: 1.25 goals per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and the combined average suggests over 1.5 second-half goals is plausible.
- Sarasota second half goals: 0.9 per game (1.1 total - 0.2 first half)
- Chattanooga second half goals: 1.2 per game (1.9 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half average: 2.1 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league average and the attacking nature of both teams, but confidence is low.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL League One average corners per game: approximately 9.2
- Both teams have attacking styles that could produce corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive stakes and league average, over 3.5 cards is a coin flip, but we lean slightly over.
- Card data unavailable for both teams
- USL League One average cards per game: approximately 4.1
- Match intensity expected due to playoff implications
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 44% leaves no cushion vs our 30% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Chattanooga Red Wolves have been highly reliable when projected to win

Chattanooga Red Wolves have fulfilled 3 of 4 win predictions, a 75% success rate. Their average estimated probability was 47.5%, with an expected 1.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating they outperformed expectations. All three fulfilled predictions came at home, while their only away prediction resulted in a loss.

Recent evidence for Chattanooga Red Wolves4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 Jul·USL League One