Corpus Christi0New York Cosmos2

HT 0–1Thu 20 Aug 2026, 00:37 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges2–722%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Corpus Christi's strong home form (5W-3D-1L) meets New York Cosmos' winless away record (0W-0D-9L), making a home win likely but not a value bet at 1.70.

The top actionable edge is 'Clean Sheet - Away: No' at 1.43, with a +15.1 point edge (85% model probability vs 69.9% implied). Avoid 'Over 2.5 goals' and '1st Half Over 0.5 goals' due to negative value.

Context

New York Cosmos away record: 0W-0D-9L
- They have conceded 26 goals and scored only 7 in those matches.
- They have kept zero clean sheets away from home.
Corpus Christi home record: 5W-3D-1L
- They have scored in 8 of 9 home matches.
- They are unbeaten in their last 5 matches overall (W-W-D-W-D).
New York Cosmos away goals: 7 in 9 matches
- They failed to score in 3 of those 9 away games.
- Their overall goals per game average is 0.8.
July 18, 2026: New York Cosmos 0-0 Corpus Christi
- The match was halted for nearly 2.5 hours due to lightning.
- The game was played at New York Cosmos' home, not Corpus Christi.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corpus Christi's strong home form and New York Cosmos' winless away record make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Corpus Christi home record: 5W-3D-1L, 14 goals for, 9 against in 9 matches
- New York Cosmos away record: 0W-0D-9L, 7 goals for, 26 against in 9 matches
- Corpus Christi last 5 form: W-W-D-W-D (unbeaten)
- New York Cosmos last 5 form: W-L-L-L-D (1 win in 5)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCorpus ChristiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given New York Cosmos' dreadful away form, Corpus Christi are highly unlikely to lose at home.
- Corpus Christi home unbeaten rate: 8/9 matches (89%)
- New York Cosmos away points: 0 from 9 matches
- H2H: only meeting ended 0-0
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCorpus Christi or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos' poor first-half away record makes Corpus Christi the most likely half-time leader.
- Corpus Christi leading at half-time in 27% of matches
- New York Cosmos trailing at half-time in 53% of matches
- Corpus Christi home first-half goal difference: +0.3
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCorpus ChristiEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is plausible given New York Cosmos' away struggles.
- Corpus Christi home win rate: 56%
- New York Cosmos away loss rate: 100%
- Corpus Christi leading at half-time in 27% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCorpus Christi/Corpus ChristiEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos' leaky away defense should contribute to a higher-scoring game.
- New York Cosmos away matches average 3.7 total goals (33 goals in 9 games)
- Corpus Christi home matches average 2.6 total goals (23 goals in 9 games)
- New York Cosmos concede 2.9 goals per away game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and New York Cosmos' defense is vulnerable away.
- Corpus Christi scored in 8 of 9 home matches
- New York Cosmos scored in 6 of 9 away matches
- New York Cosmos conceded in all 9 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos often trail at half-time, suggesting a first-half goal is likely.
- Corpus Christi first-half goals: 0.5 per game overall, 0.6 at home
- New York Cosmos first-half goals conceded: 0.9 per game overall, 1.2 away
- New York Cosmos trailing at half-time in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos' defense tends to weaken in the second half, especially away.
- Corpus Christi second-half goals: 0.8 per game overall
- New York Cosmos second-half goals conceded: 1.2 per game overall
- New York Cosmos away second-half goals conceded: 1.7 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corpus Christi have a decent chance of a clean sheet, but New York Cosmos can score occasionally.
- Corpus Christi kept 3 clean sheets in 9 home matches
- New York Cosmos failed to score in 3 of 9 away matches
- H2H: 0-0 draw in only meeting
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNew York Cosmos not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York Cosmos are highly unlikely to keep a clean sheet away from home.
- New York Cosmos kept 0 clean sheets in 9 away matches
- Corpus Christi scored in 8 of 9 home matches
- New York Cosmos concede 2.9 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCorpus Christi to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win to nil is possible but not the most likely outcome.
- Corpus Christi won 3 home matches without conceding
- New York Cosmos lost 9 away matches, 3 without scoring
- Corpus Christi home clean sheet rate: 33%
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance25%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative pick based on league averages.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL League One average corners per game: approximately 9.2
- New York Cosmos' defensive pressure may lead to more corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 24% leaves no cushion vs our 20% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Corpus Christi has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals

Corpus Christi has fulfilled 4 of 10 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 40% rate. The average estimated probability was 56.5%, so roughly 5.7 matches were expected to go over, but only 4 did. At home, just 2 of 7 such predictions were fulfilled, while away they hit 2 of 3.

Recent evidence for Corpus Christi10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One