USL CupPEN

Predictions graded

Portland Hearts Of Pine1New York Cosmos1

HT 0–0Sat 11 Jul 2026, 23:06 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Jul 2026, 16:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Portland's H2H dominance masks recent attacking churn and poor form, while the Cosmos' compact defensive setup under Corti points to a lower-event game than the earlier 3-1 scorelines suggest.

The best value may lie in over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.70, but the edge is slim; avoid backing Portland to win outright at short odds and be wary of over 2.5 total goals.

Context

The Cosmos' official homepage preview calls this the 'Prinx Tires USL Cup Group Stage Finale'.
- They sit on 3 points from 3 group matches, making a win essential for progression.
- Portland have already secured 3 points from their only home cup match and face less pressure.
Terzaghi was transferred to Sarasota Paradise on June 12 after only four appearances.
- Coach Bobby Murphy said Gonzalez was signed on loan to fill an attacking-midfield need due to injuries and schedule load.
- Portland scored 1 goal or fewer in 4 of their last 6 matches across all competitions.
In their July 8 win over FC Naples, the Cosmos used a 4-1-4-1 shape and conceded no goals.
- They have conceded only one first-half goal across their last three matches.
- Corti's system prioritizes compact defending and quick transitions.
Portland's last five results: W-W-L-L-L, with the losses including a 5-1 defeat to Brooklyn in the cup.
- They have conceded 2+ goals in four of those five matches.
- The two H2H wins came in March and May, before the recent slump and squad changes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Portland Hearts Of Pine or Draw

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Portland are unbeaten at home in the USL Cup and have won both H2H meetings in 2026, while NY Cosmos have lost 2 of 3 group matches and trail at halftime in 60% of recent games.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Portland Hearts Of Pine or Draw

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Portland led or drew at halftime in 86% of recent home matches, while NY Cosmos trailed at halftime in 60% of their last 15 games.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams scored in both H2H meetings and both sides have high BTTS rates in recent form, but Cosmos' defensive improvement adds uncertainty.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

NY Cosmos concede 1.4 first-half goals per game on average, and Portland tend to score early, but odds are heavily skewed toward Over 0.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's strong H2H record (two 3-1 wins in 2026) and home advantage at Fitzpatrick Stadium, where they have a 100% cup record, give them the edge despite recent mixed form.
- Portland won both H2H meetings in 2026: 3-1 away (Mar 14) and 3-1 home (May 2).
- Portland's home record in USL Cup group stage: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (2-1 vs Rhode Island).
- NY Cosmos away record in USL Cup: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (3-2 vs Westchester SC), but overall form is poor (1W, 0D, 2L in group).
- Portland's last 5 matches: W-W-L-L-L (mixed form), but home advantage and H2H dominance.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPortland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's home strength and NY Cosmos' poor overall form make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by Portland's unbeaten home cup record and dominant H2H.
- Portland unbeaten at home in USL Cup (1W, 0D, 0L).
- NY Cosmos have lost 2 of 3 group matches, both at home.
- H2H: Portland won both meetings in 2026, scoring 3 goals each time.
- Portland's home form across all competitions: 4W, 2D, 1L in last 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPortland Hearts Of Pine or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NY Cosmos' poor first-half record (trailing in 60% of matches) gives Portland a slight edge to lead at halftime, but Portland's own inconsistency and H2H halftime results limit confidence.
- Portland led at halftime in 33% of last 15 matches; trailed in 40%.
- NY Cosmos led at halftime in 13% of last 15 matches; trailed in 60%.
- H2H: Portland led at halftime in 0 of 2 meetings (trailed once, drew once).
- Portland's home first-half record: led in 3 of last 7 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPortland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's strong second-half performance in H2H (winning both) and NY Cosmos' tendency to lose second halves suggest a home second-half win, but overall form is mixed.
- Portland won the second half in 5 of last 15 matches; lost in 6.
- NY Cosmos won the second half in 4 of last 15 matches; lost in 7.
- H2H: Portland won the second half in both meetings (2-0 and 2-0).
- Portland's home second-half record: won 3, drawn 2, lost 2 in last 7.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradablePortland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Portland win is a plausible pattern given NY Cosmos' tendency to fade and Portland's home strength, but the specific sequence is low probability.
- Portland drew at halftime in 27% of last 15 matches; won full-time in 40%.
- NY Cosmos drew at halftime in 27% of last 15 matches; lost full-time in 60%.
- H2H: One match was draw at halftime, Portland won full-time (May 2).
- Portland's home HT/FT: 2 draws at HT, 2 wins at FT in last 7.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Portland Hearts Of PineEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely dominate entire matches, with Portland winning both halves in only 7% of recent games, making it highly unlikely either team will win both halves.
- Portland won both halves in only 1 of last 15 matches.
- NY Cosmos won both halves in 0 of last 15 matches.
- Neither H2H meeting saw a team win both halves.
- Portland's home matches: won both halves in 1 of last 7.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's strong first-half home record (led or drew in 86% of matches) and NY Cosmos' poor first-half performance make a Portland lead or draw at halftime highly probable.
- Portland led or drew at halftime in 60% of last 15 matches.
- NY Cosmos trailed at halftime in 60% of last 15 matches.
- H2H: Portland led or drew at halftime in both meetings.
- Portland's home first-half: led or drew in 6 of last 7 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonPortland Hearts Of Pine or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring cup matches, with Portland's games averaging over 7 goals and both H2H meetings exceeding 2.5 goals, making over 2.5 likely despite NY Cosmos' recent defensive improvement.
- Portland's USL Cup matches average 7.3 total goals per game (9 scored, 13 conceded in 3 matches).
- NY Cosmos' USL Cup matches average 4.3 total goals per game (4 scored, 9 conceded in 3 matches).
- Both H2H meetings in 2026 had over 2.5 goals (3-1 and 3-1).
- Portland's last 15 matches: 1.6 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game; 73% of matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, with both H2H meetings seeing both teams score, and high BTTS rates in recent form, making it likely both will find the net.
- Both teams scored in both H2H meetings in 2026 (3-1 and 3-1).
- Portland scored in 13 of last 15 matches; conceded in 13 of last 15.
- NY Cosmos scored in 11 of last 15 matches; conceded in 14 of last 15.
- In USL Cup, Portland scored in all 3 matches, NY Cosmos scored in 2 of 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NY Cosmos' high first-half concession rate (1.4 per game) and Portland's tendency to score early (0.7 per game) suggest at least one first-half goal is probable.
- Portland's first-half goals in last 15: 0.7 per game; conceded 0.7 per game.
- NY Cosmos' first-half goals in last 15: 0.3 per game; conceded 1.4 per game.
- In H2H: Mar 14 match had 1 first-half goal (0-1), May 2 match had 2 first-half goals (1-1).
- Portland's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5; NY Cosmos conceded first-half goals in 4 of last 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring second halves in Portland's cup matches and both H2H meetings, combined with both teams' second-half scoring and conceding rates, make over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Portland's second-half goals in last 15: 0.9 per game; conceded 1.2 per game.
- NY Cosmos' second-half goals in last 15: 0.9 per game; conceded 0.9 per game.
- Both H2H meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals (2 and 2).
- Portland's USL Cup matches average 4.7 second-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NY Cosmos' high first-half concession rate (73%) and Portland's moderate first-half scoring rate create a chance for both teams to score in the first half, but NY Cosmos' low first-half scoring (20%) reduces confidence.
- Portland scored in first half in 53% of last 15 matches; conceded in 47%.
- NY Cosmos scored in first half in 20% of last 15 matches; conceded in 73%.
- H2H: Both teams scored in first half in 1 of 2 meetings (May 2).
- Portland's home first-half BTTS: 3 of last 7 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonYesEstimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, the league average and match context (attacking home team vs. defensive away team) suggest a slightly above-average corner count, but confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- General USL League One average corners per game: ~9.5.
- Portland's style (attacking, high-scoring) suggests above-average corners.
- NY Cosmos' recent defensive setup (low possession, many clearances) may lead to more opponent corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L3-1Portland Hearts of PinevNY CosmosMay 2, 2026USL

W1-3NY CosmosvPortland Hearts of PineMar 14, 2026USL

4 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One Cup 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Portland Hearts Of Pine	3	1	1	1	9-13	4	LWL
5	New York Cosmos	3	1	0	2	4-9	3	LWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Portland Hearts Of Pine

W3-2NaplesJul 3USL

W5-1Richmond KickersJun 24USL

L1-5Westchester SCJun 19USL

L1-2Chattanooga Red WolvesJun 13USL

L1-5BrooklynJun 7USL

L2-3Corpus ChristiJun 4USL

W2-1Spokane VelocityMay 30USL

D1-1Greenville TriumphMay 23USL

W2-1Rhode IslandMay 16USL

D2-2Union OmahaMay 10USL

L0-3Fort WayneMay 6USL

W3-1NY CosmosMay 2USL

D1-1NaplesApr 19USL

D0-0One KnoxvilleApr 11USL

L0-1Sarasota ParadiseMar 28USL

New York Cosmos

W1-0NaplesJul 8USL

L0-3Greenville TriumphJul 4USL

L1-2Santos LagunaJun 28FRI

L1-3Forward MadisonJun 21USL

L1-3One KnoxvilleJun 13USL

L1-4Hartford AthleticJun 6USL

L1-2Sarasota ParadiseMay 30USL

L1-2Union OmahaMay 27USL

L0-4AltaMay 24USL

W3-2Westchester SCMay 15USL

L1-3Portland Hearts of PineMay 2USL

L0-3BrooklynApr 25USL

D2-2Forward MadisonApr 19USL

W3-2Charlotte IndependenceApr 3USL

W2-0Fort WayneMar 28USL

Squad & Injuries

Portland Hearts Of Pine

28 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

New York Cosmos

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Portland Hearts Of Pine or Draw

Portland Hearts Of Pine or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Portland Hearts Of Pine

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Portland Hearts Of Pine

New York Cosmos

Squad & Injuries

Portland Hearts Of Pine

New York Cosmos