USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Chattanooga Red Wolves3New York Cosmos3

HT 2–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Chattanooga's strong home form and Cosmos' terrible away record make the hosts likely to win, but the odds (1.35) offer no value.

The only market close to fair is over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.80, but the edge is minimal. Avoid the heavily juiced home win and double chance; consider a small play on second-half goals if you must bet.

Context

Chattanooga home record: 6W-0D-3L, 17 goals scored, 8 conceded.
- Recent home losses include a 1-3 defeat to Union Omaha and a 2-3 loss to Charlotte Independence.
- They have kept clean sheets in four home wins, showing defensive capability when in control.
Cosmos away record: 1W-0D-9L, 9 goals scored, 26 conceded.
- They won their last away match 2-0 against Corpus Christi on August 20.
- Before that, they had lost five consecutive away matches in league play.
Cosmos official preview states a win would cut the gap to Chattanooga to 11 points.
- Chattanooga are around the playoff line and need to defend home turf.
- Both teams have clear incentives, reducing the chance of rotation or indifference.
Cosmos official match preview from August 20 mentions new additions settling into the squad.
- Integration of new players can lead to defensive miscommunication or attacking disjointedness.
- This is a current variable, not a static form metric.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.35fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 74%

0.0ppshort

Chattanooga's strong home record and Cosmos' poor away form support the home win, but the odds are far too short relative to our 55% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chattanooga Red Wolves or Draw

1.06fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 94%

−16.0ppshort

While the home side are unlikely to lose, the odds imply a near-certainty that is not supported by our 78% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' combined averages point to over 2.5 goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown ability to score and concede, but the odds are slightly against our estimate, offering no value.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Second halves have seen more goals for both teams, but the odds are slightly against our estimate, offering no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga's strong home form and Cosmos' terrible away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Chattanooga home record: 6W-0D-3L, 17 goals scored, 8 conceded in 9 home matches
- New York Cosmos away record: 1W-0D-9L, 9 goals scored, 26 conceded in 10 away matches
- Chattanooga overall: 10W-1D-8L, 35 goals scored, 29 conceded; Cosmos overall: 5W-2D-13L, 21 goals scored, 40 conceded
- Last 5 form: Chattanooga LWLLW (6 pts), Cosmos WWLLL (6 pts)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Cosmos' away struggles and Chattanooga's solid home form, the hosts are very unlikely to lose, making double chance a high-confidence play.
- Chattanooga home record: 6W-0D-3L, 17 goals scored, 8 conceded in 9 home matches
- New York Cosmos away record: 1W-0D-9L, 9 goals scored, 26 conceded in 10 away matches
- Chattanooga overall: 10W-1D-8L, 35 goals scored, 29 conceded; Cosmos overall: 5W-2D-13L, 21 goals scored, 40 conceded
- Last 5 form: Chattanooga LWLLW (6 pts), Cosmos WWLLL (6 pts)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChattanooga Red Wolves or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga are more likely to lead at half time than Cosmos, but the probability is low due to their own high trailing percentage.
- Chattanooga leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Cosmos leading at half time in 7% of matches, trailing in 53%
- Chattanooga first half goals: 0.7 per game, first half conceded: 0.9
- Cosmos first half goals: 0.1 per game, first half conceded: 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonChattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga are favored to win, but their tendency to trail at half time reduces the chance of a HT/FT double.
- Chattanooga home record: 6W-0D-3L, 17 goals scored, 8 conceded in 9 home matches
- Cosmos away record: 1W-0D-9L, 9 goals scored, 26 conceded in 10 away matches
- Chattanooga leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Cosmos leading at half time in 7% of matches, trailing in 53%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostChattanooga Red Wolves / Chattanooga Red WolvesEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, especially Cosmos on the road, and the combined averages point to a likely over 2.5 goals.
- Chattanooga home matches average 2.78 total goals (17 scored + 8 conceded in 9 games)
- Cosmos away matches average 3.5 total goals (9 scored + 26 conceded in 10 games)
- Chattanooga overall: 35 goals scored, 29 conceded in 19 games (3.37 total per game)
- Cosmos overall: 21 goals scored, 40 conceded in 20 games (3.05 total per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, and the matchup suggests both are likely to find the net.
- Chattanooga scored in 8 of 9 home matches (17 goals total)
- Cosmos conceded in 9 of 10 away matches (26 goals total)
- Cosmos scored in 7 of 10 away matches (9 goals total)
- Chattanooga conceded in 6 of 9 home matches (8 goals total)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first half goal average is around 1.6, but Cosmos' low first half scoring makes over 1.5 a borderline call.
- Chattanooga first half goals: 0.7 per game average, first half conceded: 0.9 per game
- Cosmos first half goals: 0.1 per game average, first half conceded: 0.9 per game
- Combined first half average: 1.6 goals per game
- Chattanooga leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 40%; Cosmos leading in 7%, trailing in 53%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have seen more goals for both teams, and the combined average supports over 1.5 in the second half.
- Chattanooga total goals per game: 1.7, first half goals: 0.7, implying second half goals: 1.0
- Cosmos total goals per game: 0.7, first half goals: 0.1, implying second half goals: 0.6
- Combined second half average: 1.6 goals per game
- Both teams tend to concede more in second half (Chattanooga 1.6 total conceded vs 0.9 first half; Cosmos 2.0 total conceded vs 0.9 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this prediction is based on general league averages and is highly uncertain.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- No corner averages provided in the dataset
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without card statistics, this prediction is based on general league averages and is highly uncertain.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- No card averages provided in the dataset
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Chattanooga Red Wolves have been highly reliable when projected to win

Chattanooga Red Wolves have fulfilled 3 of 4 win predictions, a 75% success rate. Their average estimated probability was 47.5%, yet they won three times, exceeding the expected 1.9 wins. All three fulfilled predictions came at home, where they are 3 for 3, while their only away prediction missed.

Recent evidence for Chattanooga Red Wolves4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 Jul·USL League One