Bodo/Glimt4Lillestrom0

HT 2–0Fri 31 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 12–6On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 10–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 17:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt's dominant H2H and home form make them likely winners, but injuries and Champions League rotation risk erode value at 1.30.

The top betting edge is Both Teams to Score – No at 2.25, with a 60% model probability vs. 44.4% implied, backed by Glimt's five home clean sheets in seven and Lillestrøm's failure to score in both 2026 meetings.

Context

Bodø/Glimt confirmed Evjen's knee injury on 28 July, ruling him out.
- Høgh was omitted from the last squad while completing a Celtic medical, and coach Knutsen declined to discuss him.
- Høgh has been a key striker this season, and Evjen a regular midfield contributor.
Glimt play Lillestrøm on 31 July and travel to Brussels for a 4/5 August qualifier.
- The short turnaround and travel increase the need to rest key players.
- Coach Knutsen has rotated in similar situations to prioritize European ties.
Jenssen's loan ended on 23 July, and he immediately signed for Odense.
- He made 11 Eliteserien appearances this season, providing defensive experience.
- His departure leaves a gap in Lillestrøm's backline for the trip to Aspmyra.
Glimt won 2-0 away and 4-0 home in 2026, with Lillestrøm failing to score in either.
- The aggregate score across the last seven meetings is approximately 25-5.
- Lillestrøm's captain admitted after a recent loss that they lack precision against top teams like Glimt.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

Dominant H2H history and exceptional home form give Bodo/Glimt a clear edge, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominant H2H history and exceptional home form give Bodo/Glimt a clear edge, despite potential rotation risk from Champions League commitments.
- Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 H2H meetings, including both 2026 encounters (2-0 away, 4-0 home).
- Bodo/Glimt home record this season: 6 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 20 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Lillestrom away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, but only 8 goals scored in 7 away matches.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.6 goals per match overall; Lillestrom concede 1.2 per match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's tendency to start strongly at home, combined with Lillestrom's occasional slow starts away, gives the home side a solid chance to lead at the break.
- Bodo/Glimt led at halftime in 73% of their matches this season.
- At home, Bodo/Glimt were leading at halftime in 6 of 7 league matches.
- Lillestrom trailed at halftime in 33% of matches, but in away matches they were level or behind in 5 of 7.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt led at halftime in 3 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's ability to control matches from start to finish at home makes a halftime/fulltime double a reasonable outcome, though Lillestrom's resilience away prevents higher confidence.
- Bodo/Glimt have won both halves in 5 of their 7 home league matches this season.
- Lillestrom have lost both halves in only 1 of 7 away matches, but that was against a top side (Ham-Kam).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt led at halftime and won the match in 3 of them.
- Bodo/Glimt's home dominance is reflected in a +18 goal difference.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance50%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high-scoring home form and the history of high-scoring H2H encounters make over 2.5 goals likely, though Lillestrom's decent defensive record away tempers confidence slightly.
- Bodo/Glimt home matches average 3.14 total goals (20 scored, 2 conceded in 7 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-0, 4-0, 5-2, 2-4, 5-0 – all had at least 2 goals, 4 of 5 had over 2.5.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.6 goals per match overall; Lillestrom average 1.5 goals per match.
- Lillestrom's last 5 away league matches: 2-0, 0-2, 0-2, 2-0, 0-0 – mixed, but Bodo/Glimt's firepower at home is strong.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's defensive solidity at home and Lillestrom's struggles to score in this fixture suggest at least one team will fail to score, likely Lillestrom.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 home league matches.
- Lillestrom failed to score in both 2026 H2H meetings (0-2, 0-4).
- Lillestrom have scored only 8 goals in 7 away matches this season.
- Bodo/Glimt's home defensive record: only 2 goals conceded in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's home defensive record is exceptional, and Lillestrom have consistently struggled to score against them, making a home clean sheet probable.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 home league matches.
- Lillestrom failed to score in both 2026 H2H meetings.
- Lillestrom average only 1.14 goals per away match this season.
- Bodo/Glimt's home goals conceded average is 0.29 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLillestrom not to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half scoring record, especially at home, makes it highly likely there will be at least one goal in the first half.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.1 first-half goals per match overall; at home, they scored in the first half in 6 of 7 league matches.
- Lillestrom concede 0.6 first-half goals on average, but against top teams they have conceded early (e.g., 0-1 vs Viking, 0-1 vs Ham-Kam).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, there was a first-half goal in 4 of 5 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt led at halftime in 73% of their matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H data shows consistently high corner counts, and Bodo/Glimt's attacking style generates many corners at home, though Lillestrom's lower corner numbers away add uncertainty.
- Bodo/Glimt average 7.6 corners per match overall; at home, they average 8.0 corners per match.
- Lillestrom average 5.0 corners per match, but concede 5.4 corners per away match.
- Combined average corners in Bodo/Glimt home matches: 11.4 (8.0 for, 3.4 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, corner counts were 11, 12, 9, 10, 13 – all over 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high shot volume at home, driven by possession and attacking intent, makes it likely they will exceed 15.5 total shots.
- Bodo/Glimt average 17.7 shots per match overall; at home, they average 19.3 shots per match.
- In their last 5 home league matches, Bodo/Glimt had shot totals of 20, 20, 14, 19, 25 – all over 15.5 except one.
- Lillestrom concede an average of 12.4 shots per away match.
- Bodo/Glimt's possession dominance (65.1% average) leads to high shot volume.
BetBugs · Home Shots TotallostBodo/Glimt over 15.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low card counts, and the fixture historically sees few cards, suggesting under 3.5 total cards is plausible, though referee tendencies are unknown.
- Bodo/Glimt average only 0.5 yellow cards per match overall; at home, they average 0.4 yellow cards.
- Lillestrom average 1.8 yellow cards per match; away, they average 1.7 yellow cards.
- Combined average cards in Bodo/Glimt home matches: 2.1 (0.4 + 1.7 opponent cards).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were 2, 3, 4, 2, 3 – all under 3.5 except one.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt has been highly reliable when projected to win

Bodo/Glimt has fulfilled 7 of 8 recent win predictions. The only miss was a draw against Rosenborg, with no losses. At home, they have won all 4 matches when favored, and the current 68% probability sits within their historical range of 45–78%.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien