Bodo/Glimt3NEC Nijmegen0

HT 2–0Tue 25 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–367%

PossPossession 79%–21%ShotsShots 21–3On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Aug 2026, 00:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt are strong favourites to win at home with a 3-1 aggregate lead, and the home win at 1.55 offers a 7-point edge.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the market has overpriced these outcomes relative to our model.

Context

Bodø/Glimt won the first leg 3-1 away on 2026-08-19.
- They scored twice before half-time and added a third after the break.
- A two-goal lead means Bodø/Glimt can advance even with a one-goal loss.
NEC lost the first leg 1-3 at home.
- They must score at least twice to force extra time.
- Their attacking need may lead to an open game and defensive gaps.
Bodø/Glimt have won 11 of their last 15 matches.
- They average 2.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
- They are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
NEC have lost 4 of their last 15 matches.
- They have a negative goal difference in that period.
- They won only 4 of their last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong recent form and two-goal aggregate lead give them a decisive edge, while NEC must chase the game away from home.
- Bodo/Glimt won the first leg 3-1 away on 2026-08-19.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 11 of their last 15 matches, with only 1 loss.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match in recent form.
- NEC Nijmegen have lost 4 of their last 15 matches and have a negative goal difference in that span.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's consistency and home advantage make them highly unlikely to lose, so the double chance covers the draw scenario.
- Bodo/Glimt have only lost 1 of their last 15 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen have won only 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBodo/Glimt or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's habit of starting strongly and NEC's vulnerability before the break make a home lead at half-time likely.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%).
- NEC trailed at half-time in 6 of their last 15 matches (40%).
- Bodo/Glimt scored first-half goals in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- NEC conceded first-half goals in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's pattern of leading at the break and closing out wins, especially at home, supports the HT/FT double.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time and won the match in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- NEC have not won a match after trailing at half-time in their recent sample.
- Bodo/Glimt's home form is strong, with 4 wins in their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The aggregate situation forces NEC to push forward, increasing the likelihood of an open game with multiple goals.
- Bodo/Glimt's recent matches average 3.6 total goals (2.9 for, 0.7 against).
- NEC Nijmegen's recent matches average 3.3 total goals (1.8 for, 1.5 against).
- The first leg produced 4 goals.
- NEC must attack to overcome a two-goal deficit, likely leaving space for Bodo/Glimt counters.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's attacking necessity and Bodo/Glimt's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a realistic outcome.
- NEC Nijmegen have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have conceded in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- NEC need at least two goals to have any chance of progressing, so they will commit players forward.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in only 6 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The urgency for NEC to score early combined with Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half scoring record points to a lively opening period.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.3 first-half goals in recent matches.
- NEC Nijmegen average 0.7 first-half goals but concede 0.8 first-half goals on average.
- The first leg had 2 goals in the first half.
- NEC must start aggressively, which could lead to early goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's attacking desperation and Bodo/Glimt's occasional defensive lapses make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in only 6 of their last 15 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- NEC must score at least twice to have any chance, so they will commit numbers forward.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded in the first leg despite winning.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNEC Nijmegen to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half could see more goals as NEC push for a comeback and Bodo/Glimt exploit spaces on the counter.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.6 second-half goals in recent matches (total goals minus first-half goals).
- NEC Nijmegen average 1.1 second-half goals in recent matches.
- The first leg had 2 second-half goals.
- As the match progresses, NEC may take more risks, leading to late goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and NEC's attacking approach could push the total above the line.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.5 corners per match in recent form.
- NEC Nijmegen average 7.6 corners per match in recent form.
- The first leg had 9 corners total (2 for Bodo/Glimt, 7 for NEC).
- NEC's need to attack should increase corner opportunities for both sides.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The intensity of a decisive European tie, especially with NEC needing to press, increases the likelihood of bookings.
- Bodo/Glimt average 0.5 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- NEC Nijmegen average 1.5 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- The first leg had 3 yellow cards (1 for Bodo/Glimt, 2 for NEC).
- High stakes and NEC's aggressive chasing could lead to more fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The attacking nature of the match, especially with NEC needing goals, should lead to a high number of shots on target.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.4 shots on target per match.
- NEC Nijmegen average 6.5 shots on target per match.
- The first leg had 10 shots on target combined (4 for Bodo/Glimt, 6 for NEC).
- Both teams are capable of creating shooting opportunities.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%