EliteserienUpcomingFeatured

Bodo/GlimtKristiansund

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:0010 Oct, 14:00

14Probabilities2Priced6Edges93%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 05:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 23 sends the title-race leaders to Aspmyra against a Kristiansund side in the bottom three, and Bodø/Glimt should win.

The direct home win at 1.06 and Over 2.5 at 1.13 are not worth their price, but Under 2.5 at 5.25, Kristiansund to win or draw at 8.5, and the draw at 4.33 in the first half and 15 for the match all offer something.

Context

There are stakes at both ends of the table in round 23, and a reported midweek Champions League fixture for the home side makes this more than a routine top-versus-bottom league game.

Eliteserien returns from the October international window with Bodø/Glimt and Viking level on points at the top, and Viking having played one match more, so Bodø/Glimt's extra fixture is what keeps them in front. Round 23 sends Bodø/Glimt to Aspmyra to face Kristiansund while Viking travel to Brann, which means anything short of a home win can swing the title picture inside the same weekend. Kristiansund arrive needing points at the bottom of the table, so the fixture carries stakes at both ends. The read is complicated by the fact that only the points are level: Bodø/Glimt's advantage rests on the game in hand rather than a gap in the table.
- Bodø/Glimt and Viking are level on points at the top of Eliteserien, with Viking having played one match more.
- Round 23, on the weekend of 10 October, sends Bodø/Glimt to a home fixture against Kristiansund at Aspmyra and Viking away to Brann.
- Kristiansund have spent the autumn in and around the bottom three.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Bodø/Glimt are in the 2026/27 Champions League league phase and are set to host Borussia Dortmund at Aspmyra on Wednesday 14 October, four days after this league fixture. That is a short turnaround in a week that also brings players back from international duty, so minutes management and rotation are a live question for a side that is also in a domestic title race. The midweek date is repeated across fixture listings rather than taken from an official competition schedule, and no selection intent for either game is on record. The practical effect is uncertainty about how strong a side Bodø/Glimt field against Kristiansund.
- Bodø/Glimt host Kristiansund in Eliteserien on 10 October and are set to host Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League at Aspmyra on Wednesday 14 October at 21:00.
- Bodø/Glimt lost their opening Champions League fixture 5-0 away to Bayern München on 10 September.
- Aspmyra is scheduled for football from 11:00 on Wednesday 14 October.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Kristiansund reach Aspmyra after a season-worst 8-1 league defeat at Viking on 13 September and a 1-3 home loss to Rosenborg six days later, results that have kept them inside the relegation scrap. Their one bright note in the same stretch was a 2-0 home win over Tromsø that briefly lifted them out of the bottom three. The heavy defeats matter here because Bodø/Glimt's home games have produced goals in volume and Kristiansund's recent league matches have turned into high-scoring losses. The counterpoint is that the worst of those results came away from home against a title rival, while Kristiansund's points in this run were picked up at home, where this fixture is not being played.
- Viking beat Kristiansund 8-1 on 13 September, Kristiansund's heaviest league defeat of the season.
- Kristiansund lost 1-3 at home to Rosenborg on 19 September.
- A 2-0 home win over Tromsø on 6 September had briefly lifted Kristiansund out of the bottom three.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:45 · Europe/Bucharest
That home record is the backdrop to a fixture in which Kristiansund, 15th, have won once in 11 league away matches and conceded 26 times on the road. It explains why a home win is the expected result here without guaranteeing anything on the night. The single home defeat shows the record is not absolute, and the away side did score in each of their two September league games.
- Eliteserien standings snapshot, 7 October 2026: Bodø/Glimt home record 10 played, 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat, 31 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Same snapshot: Bodø/Glimt second on 50 points from 21 league games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 93%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring and defensive record at Aspmyra against a bottom-three away side makes one result far more likely than the others.
- Bodø/Glimt's league home record is 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat, with 31 goals scored and 6 conceded in 10 games.
- Kristiansund's league away record is 1 win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, with 8 scored and 26 conceded in 11 games.
- Bodø/Glimt have won 12 of their last 15 competitive matches and all of their last 6 home matches, with 4 clean sheets.
- Bodø/Glimt won the April meeting 3-0 away, the 2025 home meeting 7-1 and the 2024 home meeting 4-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerBodo/GlimtEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodø/Glimt's first-half scoring is the strongest single factor here, though their recent half-time scores have often been level.
- Bodø/Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals and concede 0.4 in their last 15 competitive matches.
- Kristiansund score 0.57 and concede 1.57 first-half goals per away match across their last 7 away fixtures.
- Bodø/Glimt's last six matches were 2-2, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerBodo/GlimtEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodø/Glimt's second-half scoring at home is the strongest element, with the away side's defensive record adding to it.
- Bodø/Glimt average 1.67 second-half goals at home and concede 0.5; Kristiansund average 1.0 for and 0.86 against away.
- Bodø/Glimt scored 4 second-half goals at Rana and 3 in the 4-2 win over Rosenborg.
- Kristiansund conceded 3 second-half goals at Viking on 13 September.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerBodo/GlimtEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring and defensive record at Aspmyra against a bottom-three away side makes one result far more likely than the others. A draw requires Kristiansund to hold out at a ground where Bodø/Glimt have won nine of ten league games.
- Bodø/Glimt's league home record is 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat, with 31 goals scored and 6 conceded in 10 games.
- Kristiansund's league away record is 1 win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, with 8 scored and 26 conceded in 11 games.
- Bodø/Glimt have 2 draws in 21 league matches and 1 in their last 15 competitive matches.
- Kristiansund have 4 draws in 21 league matches, 2 of them away from home.
BetBugs · Double ChanceBodo/Glimt or DrawEstimated chance93%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodø/Glimt's first-half scoring is the strongest single factor here, though their recent half-time scores have often been level. Bodø/Glimt's recent habit of going in level shows a first-half draw is a live outcome even in a lopsided match.
- Bodø/Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals and concede 0.4 in their last 15 competitive matches.
- Kristiansund score 0.57 and concede 1.57 first-half goals per away match across their last 7 away fixtures.
- Bodø/Glimt's last six matches were level at half-time in four of them.
- Kristiansund concede 1.57 first-half goals per away match but score 0.57.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfBodo/Glimt or DrawEstimated chance91%

Goals6 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodø/Glimt's home scoring rate alone brings three goals into range, and the away side's defending adds to the total.
- Bodø/Glimt's 10 league home matches produced 37 goals in total (31 for, 6 against).
- Kristiansund's 11 league away matches produced 34 goals in total (8 for, 26 against).
- Bodø/Glimt average 2.87 goals scored per game across their last 15 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The home side's clean-sheet rate against a low-scoring travelling team makes one side failing to score slightly more likely.
- Bodø/Glimt kept 6 clean sheets in their last 15 competitive matches, 4 of them at home.
- Kristiansund's away split shows 7 goals conceded in 7 matches and 1 clean sheet.
- Kristiansund scored 8 goals in 11 league away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.85Estimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring rate and the away side's conceding rate combine to make two or more Bodø/Glimt goals likely.
- Bodø/Glimt scored 31 goals in 10 league home matches (3.1 per game).
- Bodø/Glimt scored 3.0 goals per game in their last 6 home matches.
- Kristiansund conceded 26 goals in 11 league away matches (2.4 per game).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalBodo/Glimt over 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A single away goal or none matches Kristiansund's output on the road and Bodø/Glimt's home defensive numbers.
- Kristiansund average 0.73 goals per league away match.
- Bodø/Glimt conceded 6 goals in 10 league home matches.
- Kristiansund's away split shows 1.57 goals per game across 7 matches but 2.43 conceded.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalKristiansund under 1.5Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Both sides' first-half numbers point to at least one goal, and goalless first halves have been rare in Bodø/Glimt's recent matches.
- Bodø/Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals for and 0.4 against across 15 matches.
- Kristiansund average 0.67 first-half goals for and 1.08 against across 12 matches.
- Only 1 of Bodø/Glimt's last 6 matches was goalless at half-time, the 0-0 away at Bayern München.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.07Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have produced the bulk of Bodø/Glimt's recent goals, and Kristiansund's recent defensive collapses came after the break.
- Bodø/Glimt average 1.67 second-half goals at home and Kristiansund 1.0 away.
- Bodø/Glimt's last six matches produced 10 second-half goals in total.
- Kristiansund have conceded 6 goals in their last two league matches, 5 of them after half-time.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 58%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodø/Glimt's home dominance generates corners, but the two sides' combined averages sit almost exactly on the line.
- Bodø/Glimt average 9.7 corners and concede 1.5 in their last 6 home matches (11.2 combined).
- Their 15-match average is 6.8 corners for and 3.3 against (10.1 combined).
- Kristiansund's 7-match away split averages 5.8 corners each way (11.6 combined).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 11.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kristiansund's habit of conceding shots on target lifts the combined number just past the line.
- Bodø/Glimt average 7.8 shots on target and concede 1.8 in their last 6 home matches (9.7 combined).
- Bodø/Glimt's 15-match average is 5.9 for and 3.5 against (9.5 combined).
- Kristiansund's away split averages 3.4 on target and 7.4 conceded (10.8 combined).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match card totals sit around three, so the over has a slight but not decisive pull.
- Bodø/Glimt's 13 matches average 2.8 cards in total, with opponents collecting 2.15 yellows per game.
- Kristiansund's 10 matches average 3.1 cards in total (1.8 for, 1.3 against).
- Card data covers 13 Bodø/Glimt matches and 10 Kristiansund matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt: 8/9 recent winner projections matched

8 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Bodo/Glimt matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien

Bodo/Glimt4-0