Stjarnan2IBV Vestmannaeyjar2

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 00:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Stjarnan need a win to reach the upper section, but the suspension of leading scorer Atlason and a poor home record make the match less predictable than form suggests.

The only value edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.83, while other markets are priced too short to offer value.

Context

Stjarnan sits 7th in the Úrvalsdeild with 27 points from 21 matches, just above the relegation playoff line.
Their recent league form is strong: they beat Breidablik 2-0 away on 31 August, Thor Akureyri 4-2 at home on 23 August, and Keflavik 1-0 at home on 9 August. Those wins show they can score and defend in different settings. However, their overall away record is mixed, and they lost 2-1 to IBV in the reverse fixture on 21 June, so this form does not guarantee a repeat result.
- Stjarnan beat Breidablik 2-0 away on 31 August 2026.
- Stjarnan beat Thor Akureyri 4-2 at home on 23 August 2026.
- Stjarnan beat Keflavik 1-0 at home on 9 August 2026.
Stjarnan attacker E. Atlason, their reported leading scorer, is reported suspended for this match.
His absence removes Stjarnan's main goal threat from the starting attack. The team must find alternative scoring options, which could reduce their attacking output. However, the report is not yet confirmed, so the situation may change before kickoff.
- Fótbolti.net reported that E. Atlason would not be available for Stjarnan against ÍBV because of suspension.
- The same report identified him as Stjarnan’s leading scorer.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:55 · Europe/BucharestFótbolti.net: Suspensions for round 22www.fotbolti.net · 2 Sep 2026
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 11th in the Úrvalsdeild with 17 points from 21 matches, in the relegation playoff zone.
Their recent form is poor: they lost 0-1 at home to Thor Akureyri on 29 August, 0-1 away to Keflavik on 23 August, and 1-3 at home to IA Akranes on 16 August. Those defeats show a lack of goals and defensive vulnerability. They did beat Stjarnan 2-1 at home on 21 June, but that was over two months ago and their current run suggests they are weaker now.
- IBV lost 0-1 at home to Thor Akureyri on 29 August 2026.
- IBV lost 0-1 away to Keflavik on 23 August 2026.
- IBV lost 1-3 at home to IA Akranes on 16 August 2026.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar has struggled on the road this season.
Their away record shows one win, three draws, and six losses in ten matches, with 13 goals scored and 22 conceded. That means they average only 1.3 goals per away game while conceding 2.2. Stjarnan's home form is also mixed, but IBV's away weakness is a clear disadvantage for this match.
- IBV away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses in 10 matches.
- IBV scored 13 goals and conceded 22 in away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Stjarnan

1.72fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Stjarnan's recent form is strong (WWLWW) but their home record is poor, and the suspension of Atlason reduces their attacking threat.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Stjarnan or Draw

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Stjarnan's superior form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, but the odds offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high goals for and against averages, but the odds are too short to justify a bet at our estimated probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.35fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, but the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's strong recent form and home advantage outweigh IBV's poor away record, though the reported suspension of leading scorer Atlason adds uncertainty.
- Stjarnan home record: 4W 1D 5L, 21 goals for, 22 against in 10 home matches
- IBV away record: 1W 3D 6L, 13 goals for, 22 against in 10 away matches
- Stjarnan last 5 form: WWLWW (12 points from 15)
- IBV last 5 form: LLLDL (1 point from 15)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's superior form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, while IBV's poor away form reduces their chances of an upset.
- Stjarnan home record: 4W 1D 5L
- IBV away record: 1W 3D 6L
- Stjarnan last 5 form: WWLWW
- IBV last 5 form: LLLDL
BetBugs · Double ChancewonStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's stronger first-half scoring and IBV's frequent early deficits give the home side an edge, though the draw remains a significant possibility.
- Stjarnan led at half time in 27% of matches
- IBV trailed at half time in 47% of matches
- Stjarnan average first half goals: 1.1 for, 1.1 against
- IBV average first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.7 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's home advantage and motivation to secure an upper-section spot may drive a stronger second-half performance, though IBV's resilience keeps confidence low.
- Stjarnan average second half goals: 0.8 for, 1.0 against
- IBV average second half goals: 1.0 for, 1.0 against
- Stjarnan home matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses
- IBV away matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonStjarnanEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's ability to lead at half time and win is plausible given IBV's poor away form, but the low base rates make this a speculative pick.
- Stjarnan led at half time in 27% of matches
- Stjarnan won 8 of 21 matches overall
- IBV trailed at half time in 47% of matches
- IBV lost 12 of 21 matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostStjarnan/StjarnanEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's dominant home performances are rare, and IBV's occasional competitiveness makes winning both halves unlikely.
- Stjarnan won both halves in 2 of 15 recent matches
- IBV lost both halves in 4 of 15 recent matches
- Stjarnan home matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses
- IBV away matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostYesEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's superior first-half scoring and IBV's frequent early deficits make it likely that Stjarnan will be level or ahead at the break.
- Stjarnan led at half time in 27% of matches
- IBV trailed at half time in 47% of matches
- Stjarnan average first half goals: 1.1 for, 1.1 against
- IBV average first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.7 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostStjarnan or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals for and against averages, and Stjarnan's aggressive pressing style under the new coaching group may lead to more open play.
- Stjarnan average goals per match: 1.9 for, 2.1 against
- IBV average goals per match: 1.6 for, 1.7 against
- Stjarnan home matches average 4.3 total goals
- IBV away matches average 3.5 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Stjarnan scored in 13 of 15 recent matches
- IBV scored in 11 of 15 recent matches
- Stjarnan conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches
- IBV conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's high first-half scoring and IBV's tendency to trail early suggest a lively opening period, though IBV's low first-half output tempers confidence.
- Stjarnan average first half goals: 1.1 for, 1.1 against
- IBV average first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.7 against
- Stjarnan led at half time in 27% of matches, trailed in 33%
- IBV led at half time in 20% of matches, trailed in 47%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede more in the second half, and Stjarnan's need for a result may push them forward late, increasing goal chances.
- Stjarnan average second half goals: 0.8 for, 1.0 against
- IBV average second half goals: 1.0 for, 1.0 against
- Stjarnan home matches average 2.1 second half goals
- IBV away matches average 1.8 second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, but the combined probability of both scoring before the break is below even.
- Stjarnan average first half goals: 1.1 for, 1.1 against
- IBV average first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.7 against
- Stjarnan scored in first half in 10 of 15 recent matches
- IBV scored in first half in 7 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%