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BohemiansWaterford

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 18:4516 Oct, 18:45

15Probabilities2Priced7Edges81%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians need a win to stay in the title race, yet Waterford won 2-0 at this ground in the cup semi-final a week ago.

Expect a tight first half and a home side that finishes stronger. Waterford or a draw is priced at 1.8 for the first half and 2.63 for the match, the first-half draw at 2.63, no first-half goals at 3.6, Waterford to win at 5.25 and under 2.5 goals at 2.5. Both teams to score at 1.62 is too short.

Context

Bohemians carry maximum urgency in a three-way title race and a short turnaround from the 12 October derby, while Waterford arrive off a cup final place and a win at this venue. A Bohemians midfield injury is a watch item with no severity update, so its effect is unclear.

With three clubs level at the top, Bohemians could not afford to lose the 12 October derby, and a 76th-minute goal leaves them playing catch-up. That turns a home league game into a must-win for Alan Reynolds' team, likely requiring a more attacking approach than the away derby. The complication is recent head-to-head form: Waterford won at this ground in the cup semi-final a week earlier.
- Rovers, Bohemians and St Patrick's were level on 59 points going into Rovers' game in hand (VMSport, 8 October 2026).
- A derby win would have moved Rovers six points clear of Bohemians (VMSport, 12 October 2026).
- Dylan Watts scored Rovers' 76th-minute winner in a 2-1 defeat of Bohemians (Bohemian FC, 12 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest
This was the same fixture at the same ground only seven days earlier, and Waterford won it with two second-half goals. That gives Graham Coughlan's side a working template for Dalymount and a lift from ending a 22-year wait for a final. The caveat is context: a knockout semi-final and a league game Bohemians must win for the title are different propositions, and Waterford may manage players with the 8 November final in mind.
- Noah Mawene (51') and Tommy Lonergan (58') scored in Waterford's 2-0 semi-final win at Dalymount Park (Bohemian FC; Waterford FC, 9 October 2026).
- Waterford last reached the FAI Cup final 22 years ago and have not won the cup since 1980 (Actu Foot Irlande, 9 October 2026).
- Derry City await in the final at the Aviva Stadium on 8 November (Waterford FC, 10 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest
An early injury to a starting midfielder on Monday night leaves Alan Reynolds' side with an availability question four days before a must-win title game. If McDonnell cannot play, Bohemians must rework the middle of the pitch against a Waterford side that just won at Dalymount. The club has given no severity update, so the size of the impact remains unclear.
- McDonnell was replaced by Ryan Burke in the 19th minute after sustaining an injury at Tallaght (Bohemian FC, 12 October 2026).
- A. McDonnell started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Coughlan has lifted Waterford to a cup final and has already won at Dalymount this month, so Bohemians face a settled side rather than one in transition. He also used the semi-final to call for Tommy Lonergan's senior Ireland promotion, showing he is driving the team's ambition late in the season. The limit is that Waterford's league position carries less urgency than Bohemians' title chase, which may shape how he sets up.
- Graham Coughlan is Waterford's head coach and led the club to the 2026 FAI Cup final (Waterford FC, 10 October 2026).
- The Irish Independent described Coughlan as working 'his magic again' as Waterford knocked Bohemians out of the cup (Irish Independent Sport, 9 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians score well at home and hold the stronger home record, while Waterford's league away form is poor.
- Bohemians home: 6W-1D-2L in this sample, 2.11 scored and 1.11 conceded per home game
- Waterford league away record 3W-4D-9L, conceding 35 in 16
- Waterford beat Bohemians 2-0 at Dalymount on 9 October
- Bohemians sit 3rd and need points in the title race
BetBugs · Match WinnerBohemiansEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
First halves involving both teams are low-scoring and rarely separated.
- Bohemians' home first halves average 1.22 total goals
- Waterford's away first halves average 0.72 total goals
- Waterford led at half-time in only 2 of their last 6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.63Estimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians finish home games strongly.
- Bohemians score 1.33 second-half goals at home
- Waterford concede 0.71 second-half goals away
- Bohemians scored five second-half goals against Derry
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerBohemiansEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians score well at home and hold the stronger home record, while Waterford's league away form is poor. Both sides are hard to beat lately and Waterford draw often on the road.
- Bohemians home: 6W-1D-2L in this sample, 2.11 scored and 1.11 conceded per home game
- Waterford league away record 3W-4D-9L, conceding 35 in 16
- Bohemians home league record includes 6 draws in 16
- Waterford drew 4 of 7 away and 5 of their last 15
BetBugs · Double ChanceBohemians or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians carry the better first-half attacking numbers, though the period is usually tight. First halves involving both teams are low-scoring and rarely separated.
- Bohemians score 0.78 first-half goals at home, conceding 0.44
- Waterford score 0.43 first-half goals away, conceding 0.29
- Bohemians' home first halves average 1.22 total goals
- Waterford's away first halves average 0.72 total goals
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfBohemians or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals6 outcomes · top 81%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly and recent Bohemians games have been high-scoring.
- Bohemians games average 3.29 total goals, home games 3.22
- Waterford away games average 2.86 total goals
- Bohemians' last six matches produced 24 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams find the net in most of their matches.
- Bohemians scored in 11 of 14 league matches
- Waterford scored in 13 of 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Bohemians' 14 and 9 of Waterford's 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.62Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals arrive at a modest but regular rate for these teams.
- Bohemians home first halves average 1.22 goals; Waterford away first halves 0.72
- Bohemians scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams have rarely had goals at both ends.
- Bohemians' home first halves average 1.22 total goals
- Waterford concede 0.29 first-half goals away
- Both teams scored in the first half in none of Bohemians' last six
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most goals in these teams' games come after the break.
- Bohemians home second halves average 2.0 total goals
- Waterford away second halves average 2.14 total goals
- Second-half goals outnumber first-half goals for both teams
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians score enough at home to clear 1.5 goals more often than not.
- Bohemians score 2.11 goals per home game
- Bohemians scored 2+ in 3 of their last 4 home matches
- Waterford concede 1.0 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalBohemians over 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner counts sit below the 13.5 line.
- Bohemians home games average 11.8 total corners
- Waterford away games average 12.7 total corners
- Bohemians' last five matches averaged 10 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 13.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Total shots are expected to stay below the line.
- Bohemians home games average 25.2 total shots
- Waterford away games average 33 total shots
- Bohemians' last five matches averaged 30.6 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 34.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target tend to sit just below the line.
- Bohemians home games average 9.6 shots on target
- Waterford away games average 9.5
- Bohemians' opponents average just 3.0 shots on target at home
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals sit just above the line given Waterford's recent record.
- Bohemians games average 3.55 total cards
- Waterford games average 4.4 total cards
- Waterford's last three matches produced 5, 6 and 6 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Bohemians: 5/8 recent winner projections matched

5 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Bohemians matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bohemians8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League