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Predictions graded

Columbus Crew2Cincinnati1

HT 2–1Sat 25 Jul 2026, 23:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 08:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect goals in this derby—Over 2.5 is heavily favored, but the best value lies in Over 4.5 cards at 2.80, where Cincinnati's high yellow card rate and derby intensity create a 24-point edge.

Columbus' squad overhaul and Cincinnati's tight schedule make the match winner market risky, so focus on cards and first-half goals for betting opportunities.

Context

The derby comes three days after Cincinnati restart league play against Vancouver on July 22.
- Cincinnati's official site notes a run of 10 matches between MLS and Leagues Cup in about a month after nearly two months without official games.
Diego Rossi was sold to Monterrey on July 3 after 37 goals and 20 assists in 88 regular-season matches for Columbus.
- Brais Mendez was announced as a new Designated Player on July 2 to replace Rossi's production.
Noonan said there is still uncertainty because multiple players are competing for starting spots after the World Cup pause.
- The XI may enter Columbus with selection decisions still live rather than a settled group.
MLS rules send the top seven teams in each conference straight to the Round One best-of-3 series.
- Cincinnati's official site said FCC were seventh in the East at the restart, so direct-playoff seeding is already on the line.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Cincinnati's last 15 matches average 5.4 total goals, and 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had at least 3 goals, making Over 2.5 highly likely despite the short odds.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score and concede, and 4 of last 5 H2H meetings saw both teams score, supporting a high probability for BTTS Yes.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Columbus Crew

1.72fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Columbus have a strong home record (3W-2D-2L) and dominated the last home H2H 4-0, while Cincinnati struggle away (1W-4D-3L).

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Columbus Crew or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Columbus are tough to beat at home (5/7 unbeaten) and Cincinnati rarely win away (1/8), making home win or draw the most likely double chance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Columbus has a solid home edge and dominated the last home H2H, while Cincinnati struggles on the road, giving the Crew a slight advantage.
- Columbus home record: 3W-2D-2L, 9 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Cincinnati away record: 1W-4D-3L, 16 scored, 23 conceded.
- Last H2H at Columbus: 4-0 win for Crew.
- Columbus has won 3 of last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColumbus CrewEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Columbus is tough to beat at home, and Cincinnati's poor away win rate makes a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Columbus home record: 3W-2D-2L, losing only 2 of 7 home matches.
- Cincinnati away record: 1W-4D-3L, winning only 1 of 8 away matches.
- Columbus has avoided defeat in 5 of last 7 home matches.
- Cincinnati has avoided defeat in 5 of 8 away matches, but mostly draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColumbus Crew or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Columbus often leads at home, Cincinnati's tendency to draw first halves and the H2H pattern of draws suggest a balanced first half is plausible.
- Columbus leads at half-time in 60% of matches, trails in 20%.
- Cincinnati leads at half-time in 27%, trails in 33%.
- Last 5 H2H half-time results: D, W, D, W, D — 3 draws.
- Columbus home half-time: 4W-2D-1L in last 7 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given both teams' tendencies to share points, especially Cincinnati's away draws.
- Columbus home half-time: 4W-2D-1L; full-time: 3W-2D-2L.
- Cincinnati away half-time: 2W-3D-3L; full-time: 1W-4D-3L.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at half-time, 1 draw at full-time.
- Both teams have a high draw rate in away/home splits respectively.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring trends, especially Cincinnati's leaky defense on the road, and recent H2H meetings have been goal-heavy, making Over 2.5 highly likely.
- Cincinnati's last 15 matches average 5.4 total goals (2.7 scored, 2.7 conceded).
- Columbus home matches average 2.14 total goals (1.29 scored, 0.86 conceded), but overall last 15 average 3.0 total goals.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3, 4, 1, 6, 2 goals — 4 of 5 had at least 3 goals.
- Cincinnati's away matches average 4.88 total goals (2.0 scored, 2.88 conceded).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, and the H2H pattern strongly supports both teams finding the net.
- Cincinnati has scored in 14 of last 15 matches; conceded in 13 of last 15.
- Columbus has scored in 12 of last 15 matches; conceded in 10 of last 15.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Cincinnati's away record: both teams scored in 7 of 8 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, and recent H2H first halves have often been lively, supporting Over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Columbus averages 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.4 conceded in last 15.
- Cincinnati averages 1.1 first-half goals scored, 1.2 conceded in last 15.
- Last 5 H2H first-half goals: 1, 2, 0, 3, 0 — 3 of 5 had at least 2 goals.
- Cincinnati's away first-half goals: 1.25 scored, 1.5 conceded on average.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's matches are particularly open after the break, and H2H history shows consistent second-half scoring, making Over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Columbus second-half goals: 0.8 scored, 0.9 conceded on average.
- Cincinnati second-half goals: 1.6 scored, 1.5 conceded on average.
- Last 5 H2H second-half goals: 2, 2, 1, 3, 2 — all had at least 1, 4 of 5 had at least 2.
- Cincinnati's away second halves average 3.13 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages hover around 9-10 per match, and with an open game expected, total corners could slightly exceed 9.5.
- Columbus averages 5.1 corners per match, conceding 4.1 opponent corners — total 9.2.
- Cincinnati averages 3.8 corners per match, conceding 6.1 opponent corners — total 9.9.
- Last 5 H2H corner data unavailable, but both teams' averages suggest around 9-10 total corners.
- Columbus home matches average 5.3 corners for, 3.7 against — total 9.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's high yellow card rate and the derby context push the expected total cards above 4.5.
- Columbus averages 1.6 yellow cards per match, 0 red cards.
- Cincinnati averages 2.9 yellow cards per match, 1 red card per 15 matches.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5, not including potential reds.
- Derby intensity often increases card counts; Cincinnati's away matches average 3.1 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-1FC CincinnativColumbus CrewNov 8, 2025MAJ

W4-0Columbus CrewvFC CincinnatiNov 2, 2025MAJ

L1-0FC CincinnativColumbus CrewOct 27, 2025MAJ

W2-4FC CincinnativColumbus CrewJul 12, 2025MAJ

D1-1Columbus CrewvFC CincinnatiMay 17, 2025MAJ

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21-23	16	WDLLL
7	Cincinnati Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	15	5	5	5	36-37	20	WDLDW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Columbus Crew

D1-1BurnleyJul 12FRI

W2-0Atlanta United FCMay 24MAJ

W1-0New York City FCMay 20US

D1-1Philadelphia UnionMay 16MAJ

L2-3New York Red BullsMay 13MAJ

L0-3New York City FCMay 10MAJ

L2-3Minnesota United FCMay 2MAJ

W4-1One KnoxvilleApr 29US

W2-0Philadelphia UnionApr 25MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles GalaxyApr 22MAJ

L1-2New England RevolutionApr 18MAJ

W3-0Richmond KickersApr 15US

D1-1Orlando City SCApr 12MAJ

W3-1Atlanta United FCApr 4MAJ

L1-2Toronto FCMar 21MAJ

Cincinnati

W3-1BurnleyJul 10FRI

W6-2Orlando City SCMay 23MAJ

D3-3San DiegoMay 17MAJ

L3-5Inter MiamiMay 13MAJ

D2-2CharlotteMay 9MAJ

W3-2Chicago FireMay 3MAJ

W2-0New York Red BullsApr 25MAJ

D4-4New York City FCApr 22MAJ

D3-3Chicago FireApr 18MAJ

D1-1Toronto FCApr 11MAJ

L2-4New York Red BullsApr 4MAJ

W4-3CF MontrealMar 22MAJ

L1-5Tigres UANLMar 20CON

L1-6New England RevolutionMar 15MAJ

W3-0Tigres UANLMar 13CON

Squad & Injuries

Columbus Crew

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Cincinnati

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Columbus Crew

Cincinnati

Squad & Injuries

Columbus Crew

Cincinnati