Flamengo11 – 0Fluminense RJ0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Flamengo have a much stronger home body of results and sit above Fluminense in the table, so they hold the largest share of the match result.

• Flamengo are unbeaten at home in the tracked window: 6 wins and 2 draws in 8, scoring 1.88 and conceding 0.63 per game.
• In the league they lead on 61 points with a home record of 10 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss.
• Fluminense have won 1 of their last 7 away matches in the sample, losing 2 and drawing 4.
• Flamengo are missing Jorginho (suspended) and Arrascaeta (wrist) while Fluminense are without Cano, John Kennedy, Alisson and Matheus Reis.

BetBugs · Match WinnerFlamengoEstimated chance48%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both sides score little before half-time and concede very little, so a level half-time score is the single most likely outcome.

• Flamengo have scored 0.67 first-half goals per game, Fluminense 0.40.
• Fluminense concede only 0.14 first-half goals away from home.
• Flamengo's last six matches produced first-half scores of 2-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0 and 0-0.
• Fluminense's last six first halves included four with one goal or fewer.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Flamengo score more after the break than Fluminense concede on their travels, so they are the most likely side to win the second half.

• Flamengo average 1.20 second-half goals and concede 0.67.
• At home they average 1.13 second-half goals and concede 0.50.
• Fluminense average 1.14 second-half goals but concede 0.86.
• Flamengo's last six matches produced second-half goals in 5 of 6.

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerFlamengoEstimated chance38%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Flamengo have a much stronger home body of results and sit above Fluminense in the table, so they hold the largest share of the match result. Fluminense draw often and both teams have a midweek continental tie, which supports a tight, shared result.

• Flamengo are unbeaten at home in the tracked window: 6 wins and 2 draws in 8, scoring 1.88 and conceding 0.63 per game.
• In the league they lead on 61 points with a home record of 10 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss.
• Flamengo have drawn 5 of 15 tracked matches, including 2 of 8 at home.
• Fluminense have drawn 6 of 15, and 4 of their last 7 away matches.

BetBugs · Double ChanceFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance76%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Flamengo score more and concede almost nothing before half-time, so they are the most likely side to lead at the break. Both sides score little before half-time and concede very little, so a level half-time score is the single most likely outcome.

• Flamengo average 0.67 first-half goals and concede 0.13 in the first half.
• At home those figures are 0.75 scored and 0.13 conceded per game.
• Flamengo have scored 0.67 first-half goals per game, Fluminense 0.40.
• Fluminense concede only 0.14 first-half goals away from home.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance81%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67

The read

Both attacks score regularly and recent meetings have produced goals, making three or more slightly the more likely outcome.

• Flamengo average 1.87 goals for and 0.80 against; Fluminense average 1.53 for and 1.13 against.
• Three of the last five meetings produced three goals or more.
• Fluminense scored 4 at Coritiba and 3 at Corinthians in their last two away league matches.
• Both teams scored in 10 of Flamengo's 15 and 9 of Fluminense's 15 tracked matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Fluminense score consistently on the road and Flamengo rarely blank opponents at home, so both teams finding the net is the more likely outcome.

• Both teams scored in 10 of Flamengo's 15 tracked matches and 9 of Fluminense's 15.
• Fluminense scored in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
• Fluminense average 1.43 goals away and 1.53 overall.
• Flamengo kept only 3 clean sheets in 8 home matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Flamengo score in every match and average close to two goals at home against an away defence conceding above one and a half.

• Flamengo average 1.88 goals at home and 1.87 overall.
• They scored 2 or more in 4 of their last 6 matches.
• Fluminense concede 1.57 per away game in the sample.
• Flamengo scored in all 15 tracked matches.

BetBugs · Home Goals TotalFlamengo over 1.5Estimated chance53%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combined first-half scoring rates point to roughly one goal before the break, so at least one goal is more likely than none.

• Flamengo average 0.67 first-half goals, Fluminense 0.40.
• Fluminense concede 0.47 first-half goals and Flamengo 0.13.
• Flamengo have scored in the first half in 5 of their last 8 home matches.
• Fluminense scored twice before half-time in their 4-0 win over Coritiba.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17

The read

The first-half numbers for both teams make a goalless or one-sided opening period the likely outcome.

• Flamengo concede 0.13 first-half goals per game across 15 matches.
• Fluminense score 0.40 first-half goals overall and 0.29 away.
• Fluminense concede 0.47 first-half goals, Flamengo 0.13.
• Only one of Flamengo's last six first halves featured goals for both sides' sides in the brief.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams score more after the break than before it, so two or more second-half goals is the more likely outcome.

• Flamengo average 1.20 second-half goals, Fluminense 1.13.
• Combined with Fluminense's away rate of 1.14, the expected second-half total is above two goals.
• Flamengo's last six matches all had at least one second-half goal.
• Fluminense's last six matches produced five second halves with two or more goals.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Flamengo generate corners heavily at home while Fluminense concede many on their travels, which points slightly above ten for the match.

• Flamengo average 5.8 corners and concede 4.0; at home that is 7.1 and 3.4.
• Fluminense average 4.1 corners and concede 5.9; away that is 2.6 and 7.7.
• Flamengo produced 20 corners against Corinthians and 9 at Remo recently.
• Fluminense conceded 12 corners at Platense and 11 at Corinthians.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Fluminense attempt few shots on the road and the combined expectation sits just below the line, making the under the more likely side.

• Flamengo's home shot totals average 18.3, Fluminense's away totals 10.1.
• Fluminense's last three matches produced 7, 9 and 4 shots of their own.
• Fluminense's recent away shots-on-target counts were low relative to the opposition.
• The combined expected match total is around 28 shots.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Fluminense's low away shots-on-target rate leaves the combined expectation under eleven, so the under is slightly favoured.

• Flamengo's home shots on target average 6.3 and Fluminense's away average 3.7, a combined 10.0.
• Fluminense's last three matches produced 2 and 3 shots on target in two of them.
• Fluminense averaged 3.7 shots on target away from home in the sample.
• The combined expected total sits just below the line.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams collect bookings regularly and this derby follows two recent matches with sendings-off, so five or more cards is the more likely outcome.

• Flamengo average 1.7 yellow cards and their opponents 2.4.
• Fluminense average 2.5 yellow cards and their opponents 2.3.
• Fluminense's away matches average 3.0 yellows and 2.4 for opponents.
• Flamengo received 4 yellows and a red at Santos; Fluminense received 5 yellows at Corinthians.