Colorado Rapids1CF Montreal0

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 18–11On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 00:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Colorado are strong at home and Montreal poor away, but the market has already priced in that edge, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The only positive edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, where our model sees a 55% chance versus the 46.5% implied by the odds.

Context

Colorado Rapids sit 7th in the Western Conference with 31 points, while CF Montreal are 15th in the Eastern Conference with 21 points.
Colorado's home record is 8 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in 11 matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding 9. Montreal's away record is 2 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses in 12 matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding 35. This contrast suggests Colorado may control the match at home, but Montreal's recent away win at Columbus shows they can compete on the road.
- Colorado home record: 8W-0D-3L, 21 goals for, 9 against.
- Montreal away record: 2W-1D-9L, 15 goals for, 35 against.
CF Montreal have the worst away defensive record in the Eastern Conference, conceding 35 goals in 12 away matches.
Montreal's away matches have seen them concede 35 goals, including a 7-1 loss at Inter Miami on August 29, 2026. Colorado averages 1.9 goals per home match, but their recent home form includes a 2-0 win over Sporting Kansas City and a 1-0 win over Los Angeles FC. Montreal's defense may struggle against Colorado's attack, but Colorado's own scoring has been inconsistent, with only 0.8 goals per match overall.
- Montreal conceded 7 goals at Inter Miami on 2026-08-29.
- Montreal away goals against: 35 in 12 matches.
- Colorado home goals for: 21 in 11 matches.
Colorado announced an immediate trip to Austin, while Montréal confirmed it would host Charlotte the following evening.
The compact turnaround reduces recovery and training time before Saturday, increasing rotation and fatigue uncertainty for both sides. Late selection decisions are likely as coaches manage workloads across the quick fixture.
- Colorado said on September 8 that it was returning to the road for its final regular-season meeting with Austin.
- CF Montréal said on September 8 that it was preparing to host Charlotte the following evening.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest
Colorado Rapids have been strong at home recently, winning four consecutive home matches in MLS.
Colorado's recent home wins include a 2-0 victory over Sporting Kansas City on August 16, 2026, and a 1-0 win over Los Angeles FC on August 20, 2026. They also beat Real Salt Lake 1-0 on August 30, 2026. This run shows they can control matches at home, but their last away match was a 3-0 loss at Columbus Crew on September 5, 2026, so their form may not carry over perfectly.
- Colorado beat Sporting Kansas City 2-0 at home on 2026-08-16.
- Colorado beat Los Angeles FC 1-0 at home on 2026-08-20.
- Colorado beat Real Salt Lake 1-0 at home on 2026-08-30.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Colorado Rapids

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Colorado's strong home form and Montreal's poor away record give the Rapids a clear edge, supported by recent form and home/away splits.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Colorado Rapids or Draw

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Colorado's dominant home form and Montreal's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.2, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's strong home form and Montreal's poor away record give the Rapids a clear edge, supported by recent form and home/away splits.
- Colorado home record: 8W-0D-3L, 21 goals for, 9 against in 11 MLS home matches
- Montreal away record: 2W-1D-9L, 15 goals for, 35 against in 12 MLS away matches
- Colorado last 5 MLS form: W-W-W-L-W (12 points), Montreal last 5 MLS form: L-L-D-W-D (5 points)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColorado RapidsEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's dominant home form and Montreal's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Colorado home record: 8W-0D-3L, 21 goals for, 9 against in 11 MLS home matches
- Montreal away record: 2W-1D-9L, 15 goals for, 35 against in 12 MLS away matches
- Colorado last 5 MLS form: W-W-W-L-W (12 points), Montreal last 5 MLS form: L-L-D-W-D (5 points)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColorado Rapids or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home advantage and Montreal's slow starts give the Rapids a slight first-half edge.
- Colorado leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 27%
- Montreal leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 27%
- Colorado home first-half goal difference: +0.2 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonColorado RapidsEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home second-half performance is stronger, making them likely to win the second half.
- Colorado second-half goal difference: -0.1 per game
- Montreal second-half goal difference: -0.4 per game
- Colorado home second-half goal difference: +0.5 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostColorado RapidsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home dominance and Montreal's away struggles make a home win from start to finish plausible.
- Colorado home record: 8W-0D-3L, with 5 wins after leading at half-time
- Montreal away record: 2W-1D-9L, with 7 losses after trailing at half-time
- Colorado has led at half-time in 27% of matches and won 43% overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonColorado Rapids / Colorado RapidsEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montreal's away games are high-scoring and Colorado's home attack is solid, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Colorado home matches average 2.73 total goals (21 for, 9 against in 11 games)
- Montreal away matches average 4.17 total goals (15 for, 35 against in 12 games)
- Montreal's last 5 MLS matches: 1-7, 2-2, 2-1, 1-1, 2-2 (all over 2.5 except 1-1)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, especially Montreal on the road, making BTTS a solid bet.
- Colorado home: 21 goals for, 9 against in 11 matches (both teams scored in 7 of 11)
- Montreal away: 15 goals for, 35 against in 12 matches (both teams scored in 9 of 12)
- Montreal has scored in 10 of 12 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a first-half goal, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Colorado first-half goals: 0.5 per game, first-half conceded: 0.5 per game
- Montreal first-half goals: 0.5 per game, first-half conceded: 0.7 per game
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.2 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montreal's away games see many second-half goals, pushing the total over 1.5.
- Colorado second-half goals: 0.3 per game, second-half conceded: 0.4 per game
- Montreal second-half goals: 0.8 per game, second-half conceded: 1.2 per game
- Montreal away matches average 2.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 5 corners, suggesting a total above 9.5 is possible.
- Colorado average corners: 5.7 per game, opponent corners: 3.3 per game
- Montreal average corners: 5.8 per game, opponent corners: 5.0 per game
- Combined average corners: 11.5 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montreal's high shots on target average pushes the combined total near the line.
- Colorado average shots on target: 3.2 per game, opponent shots on target: 3.5 per game
- Montreal average shots on target: 5.3 per game, opponent shots on target: 4.9 per game
- Combined average shots on target: 8.5 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2.5 yellow cards, making over 4.5 total cards likely.
- Colorado average yellow cards: 2.6 per game, opponent yellow cards: 2.9 per game
- Montreal average yellow cards: 2.4 per game, opponent yellow cards: 2.1 per game
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.0 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%