FC Augsburg2Bayern Munich2

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 30%–70%ShotsShots 12–30On targetOn target 5–10CornersCorners 5–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Bayern's 28-match unbeaten away league run meets an Augsburg side with one home league defeat since Manuel Baum's return and a 2-1 win in the last meeting.

A Bayern win is the likeliest outcome, with Musiala's absence the caveat; the 1.18 on Bayern does not justify itself. Six prices do: Under 2.5 goals at 5.5, no goals before half-time at 6, a level half-time score at 3.8, Augsburg avoiding defeat at 4.5, the draw at 9 and both teams not to score at 2.63.

Context

Musiala had been named in Germany's starting XI before the warm-up injury forced him out, and every Bayern session since has excluded him. His availability is the main open question in Kompany's attacking selection for a game Bayern are expected to control. The specific limitation is the absence of a timeline: with individual work only, he could still train with the group later in the week, and the club has been cautious rather than ruling him out.
- Musiala left the Germany camp after tearing a muscle fibre in his right thigh during the warm-up for the Nations League match against the Netherlands in late September.
- He was on the pitch at Säbener Straße on 6 October for individual training, his first session outside since the injury.
- No date has been set for his return to competitive action.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:26 · Europe/Bucharest
The result is the reference point both benches will carry into Saturday: Augsburg scored twice in the closing 15 minutes after conceding first. It matters because it is the one recent Bundesliga occasion on which this fixture did not follow the expected script, and it came at a point in the season when Bayern were unbeaten. The obvious limit is that squads and form have moved on since; the Augsburg scorer Arthur Chaves is no longer part of the stored squad, while Massengo still is.
- Augsburg beat Bayern 2-1 at the last meeting, Bayern's first Bundesliga defeat of the 2025/26 season.
- Hiroki Ito headed Bayern ahead in the 23rd minute; Arthur Chaves equalised in the 75th and Massengo scored the winner in the 81st.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:26 · Europe/Bucharestkicker match tickerwww.kicker.de · 6 Oct 2026
Home form is the platform for Augsburg's rise under Baum, who returned to the bench in December: one league defeat at the WWK Arena since then, and that against Stuttgart in March. It is the main reason Saturday reads as something other than a routine away afternoon for Bayern. The counterweight is that Augsburg have already lost away at Werder Bremen 3-2 this season, and a home record of one defeat in 13 includes draws rather than a stack of wins.
- Augsburg have lost one of 13 Bundesliga home matches at the WWK Arena since Manuel Baum's return as manager.
- The single defeat was 5-2 against Stuttgart in March.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:26 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga Matchday 5 live tickerwww.bundesliga.com · 6 Oct 2026
The streak is the strongest counterweight to any Augsburg home-upset case, and it has been maintained through this season's away fixtures rather than inherited from an older side. The anchor is narrow, though: Bayern's two most recent away trips produced a goalless draw at Schalke and a 2-1 win at Elversberg, so the run has survived on fine margins rather than control. It sets a floor on Bayern's away performance without implying they will dominate at the WWK Arena.
- Bayern have gone unbeaten in 28 Bundesliga away matches, the third-longest run in league history.
- They drew 0-0 at Schalke on Matchday 3 and won 2-1 at Elversberg on Matchday 4.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:26 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga Matchday 5 live tickerwww.bundesliga.com · 6 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern have taken nine wins from ten competitive games and have not lost a league away match in 28 attempts.
- Bayern: 9 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats in 10 competitive matches; 3.4 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game
- Bayern away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats; 5 games, 9 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Augsburg home league record this season: 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats from 4
- Head-to-head: Bayern won four of the last five meetings, Augsburg won the most recent 2-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBayern MunichEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.80
The read
Both sides score relatively little before the break, so the first half ending level is the most likely single outcome.
- Augsburg home first-half goals: 1.0 for, 0.25 against per game
- Bayern away first-half goals: 1.0 for, 0.2 against per game
- Bayern have trailed 0-0 at half-time in several recent matches
- Augsburg have scored 0 first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bayern's goals come heavily after the break, while Augsburg have conceded in the second half of recent games.
- Bayern score 2.2 second-half goals per competitive match
- Augsburg score 1.25 and concede 0.75 second-half goals per home game
- Bayern away second-half goals for average 0.8
- Augsburg conceded late goals in the recent 2-3 defeat at Werder Bremen
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBayern MunichEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern have taken nine wins from ten competitive games and have not lost a league away match in 28 attempts. Augsburg have twice shared the points at home this season while Bayern's away scoring drops to 1.8 goals per game.
- Bayern: 9 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats in 10 competitive matches; 3.4 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game
- Bayern away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats; 5 games, 9 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Augsburg have drawn 2 of 4 home league matches this season
- Bayern have drawn 1 of 10 competitive matches and 1 of 5 away
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bayern MunichEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score relatively little before the break, so the first half ending level is the most likely single outcome. Bayern's first-half scoring and defensive record give them the better chance of leading at the break.
- Augsburg home first-half goals: 1.0 for, 0.25 against per game
- Bayern away first-half goals: 1.0 for, 0.2 against per game
- Bayern average 1.2 first-half goals per competitive match, 1.0 away
- Bayern concede 0.2 first-half goals per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Bayern MunichEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score regularly and Bayern's away games plus Augsburg's home games point to around three goals in total.
- Augsburg home matches average 2.25 goals for and 1.0 against
- Bayern average 3.4 scored and 0.5 conceded over 10 competitive games
- Bayern away matches average 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded
- Augsburg scored 11 goals in their first four league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg have found the net in every home league game and Bayern have conceded in half of their competitive matches.
- Augsburg scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches and in all 4 home league games
- Bayern failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of 10 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of Augsburg's 4 home league matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of Bayern's 5 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's away defence has allowed very little, making it more likely Augsburg are held to one goal or fewer.
- Bayern concede 0.5 goals per game across 10 competitive matches
- Bayern away goals against average 0.6 with 2 clean sheets in 5
- Bayern's away opponents average 2.2 shots on target per game
- Augsburg average 2.25 goals per home game but against weaker defences
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Augsburg under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's scoring rate is high overall, though their away matches produce fewer goals than their home games.
- Bayern average 3.4 goals per game over 10 competitive matches
- Bayern away goals for average 1.8 across 5 matches (9 scored)
- Augsburg concede 1.0 goals per home game, 1.44 overall
- Bayern scored 2, 5, 2, 4 and 7 goals in recent matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBayern Munich over 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves produce around one goal on average, so at least one before the break is the more likely outcome.
- Augsburg home first-half total averages 1.25 goals per game
- Bayern away first-half total averages 1.2 goals per game
- Bayern scored in the first half of 5 of their last 6 matches
- Augsburg scored first-half goals in 2 of their last 4 home league games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams have tended to produce goals, particularly for Bayern after the interval.
- Bayern average 2.2 second-half goals per competitive match
- Augsburg home second-half total averages 2.0 goals per game
- Bayern away second-half total averages 1.2 goals per game
- Bayern scored 4 second-half goals in each of their last two home matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern concede very few corners, which pulls the combined total towards the lower end of these two teams' ranges.
- Augsburg home corners average 6.25 for and 6.5 against, a total of 12.75
- Bayern away corners average 7.4 for and 3.0 against, a total of 10.4
- Bayern concede only 3.1 corners per competitive match
- Augsburg's most recent match produced just 4 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern restrict opponents to very few shots, so the combined shot count is more likely to stay below the line.
- Augsburg home shots: 16 for, 19 against per game
- Bayern away shots: 19.6 for, 7.2 against per game
- Bayern concede only 7 shots per competitive match
- Bayern's away league games produced 19 and 33 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 34.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's away matches have produced very few shots on target at both ends, well below the line.
- Bayern away shots on target: 7.0 for, 2.2 against per game
- Bayern allow only 2.2 shots on target per competitive match
- Augsburg home shots on target: 7.75 for, 5.25 against
- Bayern's away league games produced 6 and 7 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 14.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' yellow-card counts are low on average, particularly Bayern's, pointing to a quiet match for cards.
- Augsburg home cards: 1.25 for, 1.25 against per game
- Bayern away cards: 0.75 for, 1.25 against per game
- Bayern average 0.67 yellow cards per competitive match
- Augsburg average 1.44 yellow cards per competitive match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.18 price requires 84.7%, above our 61.0% estimate.

Prediction history

FC Augsburg: 4/5 recent goals projections matched

4 of 5 comparable goals projections involving FC Augsburg matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for FC Augsburg5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 May·Bundesliga