BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Union Berlin4Augsburg0

HT 2–0Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 9–1CornersCorners 4–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 23:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Augsburg’s unbeaten run and historical edge over a struggling Union Berlin side point to a low-scoring affair.

The first-half under 1.5 goals (75% estimate vs. 60.6% implied) and full-time under 2.5 goals (58% vs. 40% implied) offer the best value, though Union’s late coaching change under Marie-Louise Eta adds risk. Expect a tight match with few goals and limited clean-sheet potential.

Context

Baumgart was dismissed on 13 April 2026 following a 3-1 defeat at Heidenheim.
- Marie-Louise Eta is in charge for the last five Bundesliga matches.
- Union have won only 1 of their last 5 matches (1W-1D-3L) under the previous coach.
- A late-season bench change can lift or disrupt a team, adding uncertainty to form-based projections.
Augsburg's last five: wins over Gladbach, Bremen, Leverkusen and draws with Frankfurt and Hoffenheim.
- In the last six Bundesliga H2Hs, Augsburg are 3W-2D-1L, including a 2-0 win at Union in January 2025.
- Union have lost three of their last five overall and won only 4 of 16 home games this season.
- Augsburg have scored in 11 of 16 away matches, while Union have conceded in 11 of 16 at home.
Union's first-half goals per game over the last 15 matches is 0.3.
- They have been behind at half-time in 10 of those 15 games (67%).
- In their last five matches, Union scored a first-half goal only once.
- Augsburg concede 0.7 first-half goals on average, so a low-scoring opening is likely.
The last six Bundesliga H2Hs produced goal totals of 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, and 2.
- Only one of those six matches saw over 2.5 goals.
- Union have scored more than one goal in only one of those six meetings.
- Augsburg have kept two clean sheets in the last four H2Hs.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's strong recent form (unbeaten in 5) and historical edge in this fixture give them a slight advantage over a struggling Union Berlin side that has lost 3 of its last 5.
- Augsburg form last 5: WWDWD (3W-2D-0L), Union Berlin last 5: WDLLL (1W-1D-3L)
- Augsburg away record this season: 5W-2D-9L, but recent away wins vs Werder Bremen (3-1) and Bayer Leverkusen (2-1)
- H2H last 5: Augsburg 2W-2D-1L, including 2-0 win at Union Berlin in Jan 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAugsburgEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin's poor home win rate (25%) and Augsburg's resilience in this matchup make a Union Berlin loss or draw highly likely.
- Union Berlin home record: 4W-7D-5L, only 4 wins in 16 home matches
- Augsburg away record: 5W-2D-9L, but 2 wins in last 3 away
- H2H last 5: Union Berlin won only 1, Augsburg won 2, 2 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or AugsburgEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin's tendency to trail at half-time is offset by Augsburg's balanced first-half record, making a draw the most likely outcome at the break.
- Union Berlin half-time results last 15: 2W-3D-10L, Augsburg: 5W-5D-5L
- Union Berlin first half goals: 0.3 scored, 1.1 conceded; Augsburg: 0.7 scored, 0.7 conceded
- H2H last 5 half-time results: 2 draws, 2 Augsburg leads, 1 Union Berlin lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's stronger second-half scoring and Union Berlin's defensive decline after the break give Augsburg a slight edge to win the second period.
- Augsburg second half performance: scored 1.0 goals per game on average (1.7 total - 0.7 first half), conceded 0.8 (1.5 total - 0.7 first half)
- Union Berlin second half: scored 0.8 (1.1 - 0.3), conceded 1.0 (2.1 - 1.1)
- Augsburg won second half in 3 of last 5 matches, Union Berlin lost second half in 3 of last 5
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableAugsburgEstimated chance38%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The historical low-scoring trend in this fixture (5 of last 6 under 2.5) combined with Union Berlin's offensive struggles points to a tight, low-scoring match.
- H2H last 6 Bundesliga meetings: 5 finished under 2.5 goals
- Union Berlin home goals per game: 1.38, conceded 1.63; Augsburg away goals per game: 1.25, conceded 1.81
- Union Berlin last 15 matches: 1.1 goals scored per game, Augsburg last 15: 1.7 scored but only 1.5 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Union Berlin conceding in 69% of home games and Augsburg conceding in 88% of away games, making a clean sheet unlikely for either side.
- Union Berlin home: scored in 12 of 16, conceded in 11 of 16
- Augsburg away: scored in 11 of 16, conceded in 14 of 16
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin's extremely low first-half scoring (0.3 goals) and Augsburg's moderate first-half output suggest a slow start with few goals before the break.
- Union Berlin first half goals per game: 0.3, first half conceded: 1.1
- Augsburg first half goals per game: 0.7, first half conceded: 0.7
- Union Berlin trailing at half time in 67% of last 15 matches, Augsburg leading at half time in 33%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin's shaky home defense (conceded in 69% of home games) and Augsburg's consistent away scoring make a Union Berlin clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Union Berlin home clean sheets: 5 in 16 (31%), conceded in 11 of 16
- Augsburg away scored in 11 of 16 (69%), failed to score in only 5
- H2H last 5: Augsburg scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAugsburg to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's poor away defensive record (conceded in 88% of away games) and Union Berlin's ability to score at home make an Augsburg clean sheet improbable.
- Augsburg away clean sheets: 2 in 16 (12.5%), conceded in 14 of 16
- Union Berlin home scored in 12 of 16 (75%), failed to score in only 4
- H2H last 5: Union Berlin scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUnion Berlin to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin rarely wins without conceding at home, and Augsburg's away scoring record makes a home win to nil extremely unlikely.
- Union Berlin home win to nil: only 2 in 16 home games (12.5%)
- Augsburg away failed to score in only 5 of 16 (31%)
- Union Berlin home clean sheets: 5 in 16, but only 2 combined with a win
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's inability to keep clean sheets away from home and Union Berlin's home scoring consistency make an away win to nil very unlikely.
- Augsburg away win to nil: only 1 in 16 away games (6.25%)
- Union Berlin home failed to score in only 4 of 16 (25%)
- Augsburg away clean sheets: 2 in 16, but only 1 combined with a win
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average moderate corner counts, and the H2H trend shows 3 of last 5 meetings under 9.5 corners, suggesting a low corner total.
- Union Berlin average corners per game: 4.8, opponent corners: 5.5 (total 10.3)
- Augsburg average corners per game: 4.5, opponent corners: 6.7 (total 11.2)
- H2H last 5: corner totals of 15, 7, 9, 11, 8 (average 10.0, 3 of 5 under 9.5)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 1.8 yellow cards per game, and the combined average exceeds 3.5, making over 3.5 cards likely in a competitive mid-table clash.
- Union Berlin average yellow cards: 1.9, opponent yellow cards: 1.8 (total 3.7)
- Augsburg average yellow cards: 2.2, opponent yellow cards: 1.9 (total 4.1)
- Union Berlin last 5 matches: 1, 2, 1, 1, 2 yellow cards; Augsburg last 5: 2, 1, 1, 1, 5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinJan 15, 2026BL

W1-2FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinMay 17, 2025BL

L0-2Union BerlinvFC AugsburgJan 15, 2025BL

L2-0FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinApr 12, 2024BL

D1-1Union BerlinvFC AugsburgNov 25, 2023BL

Augsburg: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Union Berlin	33	9	9	15	40-58	36	WDLLL
9	Augsburg	33	12	7	14	45-57	43	WWDWD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Union Berlin

W3-1FSV Mainz 05May 10BL

D2-21. FC KölnMay 2BL

L1-3RB LeipzigApr 24BL

L1-2VfL WolfsburgApr 18BL

L1-31. FC HeidenheimApr 11BL

D1-1FC St. PauliApr 5BL

L0-4Bayern MünchenMar 21BL

W1-0SC FreiburgMar 15BL

L1-4Werder BremenMar 8BL

L0-1Borussia MönchengladbachFeb 28BL

W1-0Bayer LeverkusenFeb 21BL

L2-3Hamburger SVFeb 14BL

D1-1Eintracht FrankfurtFeb 6BL

L1-31899 HoffenheimJan 31BL

L0-3Borussia DortmundJan 24BL

Augsburg

W3-1Borussia MönchengladbachMay 9BL

W3-1Werder BremenMay 2BL

D1-1Eintracht FrankfurtApr 25BL

W2-1Bayer LeverkusenApr 18BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimApr 10BL

D1-1Hamburger SVApr 4BL

L2-5VfB StuttgartMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia DortmundMar 14BL

L1-2RB LeipzigMar 7BL

W2-01. FC KölnFeb 27BL

W3-2VfL WolfsburgFeb 21BL

W1-01. FC HeidenheimFeb 15BL

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Feb 7BL

W2-1FC St. PauliJan 31BL

W2-1Bayern MünchenJan 24BL

Squad & Injuries

Union Berlin

27 available

Attackers3

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Augsburg

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Augsburg

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

Under 9.5

Augsburg to score

No

No

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Union Berlin

Augsburg

Squad & Injuries

Union Berlin

Augsburg