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Predictions graded

Bayern Munich5Cologne1

HT 3–1Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–190%

Edges8–0100%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 19–9On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Bayern’s five-match H2H win streak and dominant home form make a home win a near-certainty, but the real value lies in goal and shot markets.

Over 4.5 goals (+9pts edge) and over 8.5 shots on target (+14.4pts edge) offer the best betting opportunities, driven by Bayern’s high-scoring attack and Köln’s leaky defense.

Context

Bayern won the last five H2Hs: 3-1, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0, 2-1.
- Köln conceded 11 goals in those five matches, scoring only 3.
- The last two meetings in Cologne ended 4-1 and 3-1 to Bayern.
- Bayern are unbeaten in the last six H2Hs (5W-1D).
Bayern home record: 13W-2D-1L, 63 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- Köln away record: 2W-7D-7L, 18 goals scored, 28 conceded.
- Bayern average 3.9 goals per home game; Köln concede 1.75 per away game.
- Bayern's last five home league games produced 4, 4, 6, 5, and 7 total goals.
Köln scored in 13 of last 15 matches across all competitions.
- Bayern conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Köln scored once in each of the last two H2H meetings (both away losses).
- Bayern's last five home games: conceded in four of them.
Bayern need a win to clinch the Bundesliga title with two games to spare.
- Köln are 10th in the table, 12 points clear of relegation and 9 points off European spots.
- Bayern's home crowd will expect a title-clinching celebration.
- Köln have won only one of their last eight away league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bayern München

1.15fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Bayern's dominant H2H streak and vastly superior home form make a home win highly probable.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bayern München or Draw

1.03fair 1.05

BetBugs 95% · Market 97%

0.0ppshort

Bayern's near-flawless home record and Köln's poor away form make a Bayern win or draw extremely likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 3.5

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Bayern's 3.2 goals/game average and Köln's 1.9 conceded/game, plus 4 of last 5 H2H over 3.5, support a high-scoring match.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Köln scored in 13 of last 15 matches and Bayern conceded in 10 of 15, making both teams scoring likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Bayern's fast starts at home and Köln's early vulnerability suggest over 1.5 first-half goals is plausible.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Bayern's second-half scoring surge and Köln's defensive fatigue often lead to multiple goals after the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's dominant H2H streak and vastly superior home form make a home win highly probable.
- Bayern have won their last 5 H2H meetings, including 3-1 and 4-1 away wins in the last two.
- Bayern home record this season: 13W-2D-1L, 63 goals scored, 18 conceded in 16 matches.
- Köln away record: 2W-7D-7L, 18 goals scored, 28 conceded in 16 matches.
- Bayern form last 5: W-D-D-L-W (3W-2D-0L in Bundesliga last 5).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBayern MünchenEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's near-flawless home record and Köln's poor away form make a Bayern win or draw extremely likely.
- Bayern have lost only 1 home league game all season (13W-2D-1L).
- Köln have won only 2 of 16 away games this season.
- Bayern are unbeaten in last 6 H2H meetings (5W-1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBayern München or DrawEstimated chance95%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's strong first-half performances at home and Köln's tendency to fall behind early support a Bayern halftime lead.
- Bayern led at halftime in 47% of last 15 matches; Köln trailed at halftime in 40% of last 15.
- Bayern home first-half record: led in 9 of 16 home games this season.
- Köln away first-half record: trailed in 7 of 16 away games.
- In last 5 H2H, Bayern led at halftime in 3 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBayern MünchenEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's ability to dominate from the start at home makes a halftime/fulltime double a solid possibility.
- Bayern led at halftime and won in 6 of last 15 matches overall.
- At home, Bayern led at halftime and won in 8 of 16 league games.
- Köln trailed at halftime and lost in 5 of 16 away games.
- In last 5 H2H, Bayern led at halftime and won in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableBayern München / Bayern MünchenEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's high-scoring attack and Köln's leaky defense, combined with recent H2H goal fests, point to over 3.5 goals.
- Bayern average 3.2 goals per game over last 15; 3.9 goals per home game this season.
- Köln concede 1.9 goals per game on average; 1.75 per away game.
- Last 2 H2H meetings: 3-1 and 4-1 (both over 3.5).
- Bayern's last 5 home league games: 4-2, 4-0, 3-3, 4-1, 6-1 (all over 3.5 except 4-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Köln's consistent scoring record and Bayern's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams are likely to score.
- Köln have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Bayern have conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches, including against weaker sides.
- Köln scored in both recent H2H away losses (1 goal each).
- Bayern kept only 5 clean sheets in last 15 overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's tendency to start fast at home and Köln's vulnerability early in games make over 1.5 first-half goals plausible.
- Bayern average 1.1 first-half goals per game; Köln concede 0.8 first-half goals per game.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, first-half goals: 1, 2, 1, 0, 1 (4 of 5 had at least 1 goal).
- Bayern's last 5 home games: first-half goals totals: 3, 2, 3, 1, 3 (all over 1.5 except one).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's second-half scoring surge and Köln's defensive fatigue often lead to multiple goals after the break.
- Bayern average 2.1 second-half goals per game (3.2 total - 1.1 first half).
- Köln concede 1.1 second-half goals per game on average.
- Last 2 H2H: second-half goals: 2 (3-1) and 3 (4-1).
- Bayern's last 5 home games: second-half goals: 3, 2, 0, 3, 3 (4 of 5 over 1.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the total often hovers around 9-10, making over 9.5 a marginal call.
- Bayern average 6.7 corners per game; Köln average 5.1 corners per game.
- Combined average corners in Bayern matches: 12.2 (6.7 + 5.5 opponent).
- Köln's away matches average 9.8 corners total.
- Last H2H: corners were 3-6 (total 9); previous: 1-8 (total 9).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's high shot volume and Köln's tendency to concede shots on target push the total comfortably over 8.5.
- Bayern average 8.3 shots on target per game; Köln average 4.7.
- Combined average shots on target in Bayern matches: 13.8 (8.3 + 5.5 opponent).
- Köln's away matches average 9.4 shots on target total.
- Last 5 H2H: shots on target totals: 14, 13, 11, 9, 10 (all over 8.5).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2 cards each, and recent H2H meetings have seen at least 4 cards, making over 3.5 likely.
- Bayern average 2.1 yellow cards per game; Köln average 2.1.
- Combined average cards in Bayern matches: 4.2 (2.1 + 2.1 opponent).
- Köln's away matches average 4.1 cards total.
- Last 5 H2H: cards totals: 4, 5, 3, 4, 3 (4 of 5 over 3.5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

5W · 0D · 0W

W1-31. FC KölnvBayern MünchenJan 14, 2026BL

W1-41. FC KölnvBayern MünchenOct 29, 2025DFB

W2-0Bayern Munichv1. FC KölnApr 13, 2024BL

W0-11. FC KölnvBayern MunichNov 24, 2023BL

W1-21. FC KölnvBayern MunichMay 27, 2023BL

Bayern Munich unbeaten in 5 meetingsBayern Munich: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München Champions League	33	27	5	1	117-35	86	WDWWW
14	1. FC Köln	33	7	11	15	48-58	32	LDLDW

54pt gap between teamsBayern München leads the league

Recent Form

Bayern München

W1-0VfL WolfsburgMay 9BL

D1-1Paris Saint GermainMay 6UEF

D3-31. FC HeidenheimMay 2BL

L4-5Paris Saint GermainApr 28UEF

W4-3FSV Mainz 05Apr 25BL

W2-0Bayer LeverkusenApr 22DFB

W4-2VfB StuttgartApr 19BL

W4-3Real MadridApr 15UEF

W5-0FC St. PauliApr 11BL

W2-1Real MadridApr 7UEF

W3-2SC FreiburgApr 4BL

W4-0Union BerlinMar 21BL

W4-1AtalantaMar 18UEF

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 14BL

W6-1AtalantaMar 10UEF

1. FC Köln

L1-31. FC HeidenheimMay 10BL

D2-2Union BerlinMay 2BL

L1-2Bayer LeverkusenApr 25BL

D1-1FC St. PauliApr 17BL

W3-1Werder BremenApr 12BL

D2-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 5BL

D3-3Borussia MönchengladbachMar 21BL

D1-1Hamburger SVMar 14BL

L1-2Borussia DortmundMar 7BL

L0-2FC AugsburgFeb 27BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimFeb 21BL

L1-3VfB StuttgartFeb 14BL

L1-2RB LeipzigFeb 8BL

W1-0VfL WolfsburgJan 30BL

L1-2SC FreiburgJan 25BL

Squad & Injuries

Bayern München

35 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders12

Goalkeeper5

1. FC Köln

26 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 4.5

Over 8.5

Bayern München

Bayern München or Draw

Bayern München

Bayern München at half-time / Bayern München at full-time

Over 3.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bayern München

1. FC Köln

Squad & Injuries

Bayern München

1. FC Köln