Augsburg - Hoffenheim
Finished Snapshot
Halftime
2-2
Predictions
9W · 1L · 0P
Edges
1W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
Shots
Shots on Target
Corners
Quick Take
Hoffenheim's defensive freefall (7 pts from 24, conceding 2+ in 5/8 games) meets Augsburg's leaky recent form (2.0 conceded per game over last 5) in a historically high-scoring rivalry. Both teams to score is the key edge (72% confidence vs.
Context Signals
Hoffenheim in defensive freefall
HIGHHoffenheim have taken just 7 points from their last 24 available, conceding 2+ goals in 5 of 8 recent Bundesliga matches including two 5-goal concessions. Key defenders Gendrey and Machida are injured.
Augsburg's form dip after Baum bounce
HIGHAfter Manuel Baum's stunning 15-point haul from 6 matches, Augsburg have regressed to just 1 point from their last 4 league outings, conceding 2.0 goals per game. Missing defenders Matsima and Schlotterbeck.
Betting Edges
Implied: 66.7% → Our estimate: 72% → Edge: +5.3pts
- •Hoffenheim conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 8 recent games
- •Augsburg conceding 2.0 goals per game over last 5 matches
- •H2H shows both teams reliably finding the net (Hoffenheim 1.8/game)
Predictions
The convergence of both teams' defensive frailties and the historically high-scoring nature of this fixture makes it highly probable that at least 2 goals are scored.
Hoffenheim's defensive collapse (conceding 2+ in 5/8 games, including two 5-goal concessions) and the loss of two defenders to injury make a Hoffenheim clean sheet extremely unlikely.
Augsburg's 2.0 goals conceded average over their last 5 matches, compounded by two missing defenders and Hoffenheim's historically prolific H2H scoring (1.8 goals/game), makes an Augsburg clean sheet very unlikely.
Augsburg's poor defensive record (2.0 conceded over last 5), missing two key defenders, and Hoffenheim's strong H2H scoring record (1.8 goals/game) make it highly likely Hoffenheim score at least once.
Hoffenheim's severely leaking defense (2+ goals conceded in 5/8 recent games) combined with Augsburg's proven ability to score against them in recent H2H (3 wins in 5) and Hoffenheim's defensive injuries make at least one Augsburg goal very likely.
The combination of both teams' defensive vulnerabilities (Hoffenheim conceding 2+ in 5/8, Augsburg averaging 2.0 conceded over last 5) plus multiple defensive injuries on each side strongly supports both teams finding the net.
Hoffenheim's motivation asymmetry (chasing Champions League) should drive early attacking intent against a depleted Augsburg defense, while the general defensive fragility of both sides favors at least one first-half goal.
Both defenses are in structural decline — Hoffenheim's collapse (conceding 5 goals twice recently) and Augsburg's leaky run (2.0 conceded per game over last 5) combine with an already high-scoring H2H pattern and multiple defensive absentees to make over 2.5 goals probable.
Hoffenheim's sustained poor form (7 pts from 24) and Augsburg's recent H2H superiority (3 wins in last 5 meetings) combined with home advantage make it more likely that Augsburg avoid defeat than Hoffenheim win outright.
Augsburg's recent H2H dominance (3W in last 5) and home advantage partially offset by their own poor run of 1 point from 4 matches, but Hoffenheim's severe collapse (7 pts from 24) makes them beatable — slight home lean but low confidence due to Augsburg's dip.
Recent Form
Standings will be available soon.
Head-to-head record not yet available.