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Predictions graded

Bayern Munich5Stuttgart1

HT 1–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges8–189%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 21–11On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Bayern are clear favourites with a 72% win probability, but the 1.25 price offers no value.

The best betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.65 (+4 points), backed by H2H second halves averaging 2.6 goals. Avoid the Asian handicap and Over 4.5 goals markets, which are overpriced relative to our model.

Context

Bayern's World Cup internationals rejoined progressively during pre-season.
- The squad had a 1–8 August Asia tour before the Supercup on 22 August.
- This is a compressed build-up into the league opener on 28 August.
Stuttgart away record in recent matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- They beat Hansa Rostock 4-0 away in the DFB Pokal on 21 August.
- They drew 2-2 at Eintracht Frankfurt and 3-3 at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga last season.
Last five H2H results: 3-0, 4-2, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1, all Bayern wins.
- Bayern scored 17 goals and conceded only 3 in those matches.
- Stuttgart failed to score in only one of those five meetings.
Hoeneß led training restart on 16 July and said the club is ambitious across all competitions.
- He called Bayern away a tough opener but said preparation is aimed at a successful start.
- Stuttgart are aiming for Champions League qualification this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bayern Munich

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Bayern have won the last five H2H meetings by a combined 17-3, and their home form is formidable, making them clear favourites despite the short price.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bayern Munich or Draw

1.08fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 92.6%

−2.6ppshort

Bayern have not lost to Stuttgart in the last five meetings, and their home record is strong, making a Stuttgart win highly unlikely.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bayern Munich

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Bayern's home advantage and H2H dominance give them an edge to lead at the break, but the market price already reflects that edge.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bayern Munich at half-time / Bayern Munich at full-time

1.67fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 59.9%

−9.9ppshort

Bayern's overall superiority suggests they can lead at half-time and full-time, but the market price is slightly above our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Five straight H2H wins for Bayern with 17-3 aggregate and all but one over 2.5; both teams' attacking averages support a high-scoring opener.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 3.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

−5.0ppshort

H2H second halves average 2.6 goals and both teams maintain attacking pressure; Over 3.5 offers better odds than Over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Stuttgart scored in 4 of last 5 H2H and average 2.9 goals/game; Bayern conceded in 4 of last 5 H2H.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's dominant H2H record and superior attacking output make them clear favorites.
- Bayern have won the last 5 H2H meetings, scoring 17 and conceding 3.
- Bayern average 2.7 goals per match over last 15, Stuttgart concede 1.4.
- Bayern home record in recent matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBayern MunichEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's strong home record and H2H dominance make a Stuttgart win unlikely.
- Bayern have not lost to Stuttgart in last 5 meetings.
- Bayern home form: 4 wins, 1 draw in recent matches.
- Stuttgart away form: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in recent matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBayern Munich or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bayern's home strength and H2H dominance give them an edge to lead at the break.
- Bayern led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, Stuttgart in 60%.
- In last 5 H2H, Bayern led at half-time in 2 matches, Stuttgart in 1, 2 draws.
- Bayern's home advantage and early pressure often yield first-half leads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBayern MunichEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bayern's overall superiority suggests they can lead at half-time and full-time.
- Bayern won 4 of last 5 H2H, leading at half-time in 2 of those.
- Bayern home record: 4 wins, 1 draw.
- Stuttgart have not beaten Bayern in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBayern Munich / Bayern MunichEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring trend in H2H and both teams' attacking stats strongly support over 2.5 goals.
- Bayern's last 5 H2H vs Stuttgart: 3-0, 4-2, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1 (all over 2.5 except 2-1).
- Bayern average 2.7 goals for and 1.5 against; Stuttgart average 2.9 for and 1.4 against.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's attacking threat and Bayern's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring likely.
- Stuttgart scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Bayern conceded in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Stuttgart average 2.9 goals per match, Bayern concede 1.5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and H2H first halves have often produced goals.
- Bayern average 1.1 first-half goals, Stuttgart average 1.5.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals: 0, 3, 1, 1, 1 (average 1.2).
- Bayern led at half-time in 47% of matches, Stuttgart in 60%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in H2H have been high-scoring, and both teams maintain attacking pressure.
- Bayern average 1.6 second-half goals (2.7 total - 1.1 first half).
- Stuttgart average 1.4 second-half goals (2.9 total - 1.5 first half).
- Last 5 H2H second-half goals: 3, 3, 4, 1, 2 (average 2.6).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate corners, but H2H corner data is limited, so confidence is low.
- Bayern average 5.4 corners, Stuttgart average 6.6.
- Combined average corners per match: 12.0.
- In last H2H with corner data (DFB Pokal final), total corners were 3 (Bayern 0, Stuttgart 3).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are prolific in shots on target, but H2H sample is small.
- Bayern average 7.5 shots on target, Stuttgart average 6.3.
- Combined average shots on target: 13.8.
- In last H2H with shot data (DFB Pokal final), total shots on target were 9 (Bayern 6, Stuttgart 3).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card counts are moderate, but derby intensity could push total over 3.5.
- Bayern average 1.2 yellow cards, Stuttgart average 1.6.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.8.
- No red cards in recent H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bayern Munich has been highly reliable when projected to win

Bayern Munich has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions. The two misses were draws, with no losses. The current 72% probability sits within the historical range of 52% to 93%.

Recent evidence for Bayern Munich7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 May·Bundesliga