BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Augsburg3Borussia M'gladbach1

HT 2–0Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 15–16On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:34 · Europe/Bucharest

The standout bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.60, with a strong +9.5% edge driven by a perfect 5/5 high-scoring H2H record and both teams’ leaky defenses.

Over 4.5 cards at 1.80 also offers value (+9.4% edge) given Augsburg’s disciplinary record and the fixture’s physical history.

Context

Kleindienst is listed as 'Missing Fixture' with a knee injury, removing a key goal-scoring option.
- Elvedi is suspended due to yellow card accumulation, leaving a gap in central defense.
- Gladbach already struggle away (3 wins in 16), and these absences further reduce their chance of controlling the match.
Last five results: W-D-W-D-D, with the only loss a heavy 2-5 defeat to Stuttgart.
- At home this season: 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, losing only five of 16 matches.
- Gladbach have won just 3 of 16 away matches, making Augsburg's home stability a key factor.
Last five H2H results: 4-0, 3-0, 2-1, 2-1, 4-4.
- Both teams have conceded regularly this season (Augsburg 56, Gladbach 50 goals against).
- Augsburg's last 15 matches average 3.1 total goals; Gladbach's average 2.6.
Augsburg average 2.3 yellow cards per match, the highest in the league.
- Last five H2H meetings all saw at least 4 total cards, with three matches reaching 5+.
- Gladbach also average 2.2 yellow cards per game, contributing to a card-heavy fixture.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's solid recent form and Gladbach's poor away record, compounded by key absences, give the hosts a slight edge.
- Augsburg won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, including the last home fixture 2-1.
- Augsburg's recent form: WDWDD (last 5), unbeaten in 4 of last 5.
- Gladbach's away form: 3 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses in 16 away matches.
- Gladbach missing key attacker Kleindienst and defender Elvedi (suspension).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAugsburgEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's home resilience and Gladbach's travel struggles make a home win or draw the most likely double-chance outcome.
- Augsburg lost only 5 of 16 home matches this season (6W, 5D, 5L).
- Gladbach won only 3 of 16 away matches.
- Augsburg unbeaten in 4 of last 5 overall (W2, D2).
- Gladbach's last 5 away matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAugsburg or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates and high draw percentages at halftime for both sides suggest a stalemate at the break is most probable.
- Augsburg led at halftime in only 27% of matches, trailed in 33%, drew in 40%.
- Gladbach led at halftime in only 13% of matches, trailed in 33%, drew in 54%.
- In last 5 H2H, halftime results: 2 draws, 2 Augsburg leads, 1 Gladbach lead.
- Both teams average less than 1 first-half goal per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A halftime draw followed by an Augsburg win aligns with their pattern of second-half improvement at home and Gladbach's tendency to fade.
- Augsburg drew at halftime in 40% of matches, won 34% overall.
- Gladbach drew at halftime in 54% of matches, lost 41% overall.
- In last 5 H2H, halftime draw occurred twice, with Augsburg winning both those matches.
- Augsburg's home record: 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses; often tight at half before pulling away.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/AugsburgEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H trend of high-scoring encounters combined with both teams' consistent concession rates makes Over 2.5 goals highly probable.
- Last 5 H2H meetings all finished Over 2.5 goals (4-0, 3-0, 2-1, 2-1, 4-4).
- Augsburg's last 15 matches average 3.1 total goals (1.6 scored, 1.5 conceded).
- Borussia M'gladbach's last 15 matches average 2.6 total goals (1.1 scored, 1.5 conceded).
- Both teams have negative goal differences and concede regularly (Augsburg 56 GA, Gladbach 50 GA in 32 matches).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides regularly find the net and have defensive vulnerabilities, supporting a both-teams-to-score outcome.
- Augsburg scored in 13 of last 15 matches; Gladbach scored in 10 of last 15.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Augsburg home record: 22 goals scored, 27 conceded in 16 matches (both teams scored in 10 of 16).
- Gladbach away record: 17 goals scored, 26 conceded in 16 matches (both teams scored in 9 of 16).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and H2H history shows first-half goals are common, making Over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Augsburg's last 15 matches: 0.6 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded (1.3 total first-half goals on average).
- Gladbach's last 15 matches: 0.4 first-half goals scored, 0.8 conceded (1.2 total first-half goals on average).
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches (4-0, 3-0, 2-1, 4-4).
- Augsburg led at halftime in 27% of matches, trailed in 33%; Gladbach led in 13%, trailed in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams push for results, with historical data supporting Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Augsburg's last 15 matches average 1.6 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Gladbach's last 15 matches average 1.4 second-half goals.
- In last 5 H2H, second-half goals exceeded 1.5 in 3 matches (4-0, 3-0, 4-4).
- Both teams have negative goal differences, indicating defensive lapses often occur later in games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history consistently shows high corner counts, and Augsburg's matches tend to produce many corners, supporting Over 9.5.
- Augsburg's last 15 matches average 4.9 corners for, 7.1 against (total 12.0).
- Gladbach's last 15 matches average 2.9 corners for, 5.1 against (total 8.0).
- In last 5 H2H, corner counts: 10, 10, 9, 11, 12 (all Over 9.5).
- Augsburg's home matches average 5.2 corners for, 6.8 against (total 12.0).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records and H2H card trends indicate a high likelihood of at least 5 total cards.
- Augsburg averages 2.3 yellow cards per match; Gladbach averages 2.2.
- Augsburg accumulated 83 yellow cards this season (2.6 per match).
- In last 5 H2H, total cards: 5, 4, 6, 5, 7 (all Over 4.5).
- Referee data unavailable, but both teams have physical, card-prone profiles.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L4-0Borussia MönchengladbachvFC AugsburgJan 11, 2026BL

W0-3Borussia MönchengladbachvFC AugsburgFeb 22, 2025BL

L2-1FC AugsburgvBorussia MönchengladbachOct 4, 2024BL

W1-2Borussia MonchengladbachvFC AugsburgJan 21, 2024BL

D4-4FC AugsburgvBorussia MonchengladbachAug 19, 2023BL

4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Augsburg	32	11	7	14	42-56	40	WDWDD
11	Borussia M'gladbach	32	8	11	13	37-50	35	WDDLD

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Augsburg

W3-1Werder BremenMay 2BL

D1-1Eintracht FrankfurtApr 25BL

W2-1Bayer LeverkusenApr 18BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimApr 10BL

D1-1Hamburger SVApr 4BL

L2-5VfB StuttgartMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia DortmundMar 14BL

L1-2RB LeipzigMar 7BL

W2-01. FC KölnFeb 27BL

W3-2VfL WolfsburgFeb 21BL

W1-01. FC HeidenheimFeb 15BL

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Feb 7BL

W2-1FC St. PauliJan 31BL

W2-1Bayern MünchenJan 24BL

D2-2SC FreiburgJan 18BL

Borussia M'gladbach

W1-0Borussia DortmundMay 3BL

D0-0VfL WolfsburgApr 25BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05Apr 19BL

L0-1RB LeipzigApr 11BL

D2-21. FC HeidenheimApr 4BL

D2-2VfL OsnabrückMar 26FRI

D3-31. FC KölnMar 21BL

W2-0FC St. PauliMar 13BL

L1-4Bayern MünchenMar 6BL

W1-0Union BerlinFeb 28BL

L1-2SC FreiburgFeb 22BL

L0-3Eintracht FrankfurtFeb 14BL

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenFeb 7BL

D1-1Werder BremenJan 31BL

L0-3VfB StuttgartJan 25BL

Squad & Injuries

Augsburg

4 out

Attackers5

Midfielders2/10

×#13

Defenders2/9

×#3

Goalkeeper3

#13 D. Giannoulis — Injury

#3 M. Pedersen — Knee Injury

#13 D. Giannoulis — Injury

#3 M. Pedersen — Knee Injury

Borussia M'gladbach

4 out

Attackers2/6

×#11

Midfielders10

Defenders2/11

×#30

Goalkeeper4

#30 N. Elvedi — Yellow Cards

#11 T. Kleindienst — Knee Injury

#30 N. Elvedi — Yellow Cards

#11 T. Kleindienst — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Augsburg or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Augsburg

Borussia M'gladbach

Squad & Injuries

Augsburg

Borussia M'gladbach