Werder Bremen vs Augsburg: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bremen's new manager bounce (3 wins in 4) and Augsburg's poor away record combine with Bremen's greater relegation urgency to give the hosts a slight edge, though Bremen's overall poor home record (5W in 15) caps confidence.
- Bremen 3W in last 4 Bundesliga games under new manager Thioune (appointed Feb 2026)
- Augsburg away record: 4W-2D-9L (26.7% win rate on the road)
- Bremen won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings; won last home H2H 2-0 (Dec 2023)
- Bremen 6 pts above relegation vs Augsburg's 11 — higher survival motivation
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWerder BremenEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's weak away form and Bremen's improving trajectory under Thioune make an away win unlikely; combined with H2H showing Augsburg winning just once in 5, Bremen avoiding defeat at home is the highest-probability outcome band.
- Augsburg have won only 4 of 15 away games this season (26.7%)
- Bremen under Thioune: 3 wins in last 4 Bundesliga games
- Bremen home: 9 non-losses in 15 home games (60%)
- H2H: Augsburg won only 1 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostWerder Bremen or DrawEstimated chance62%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' leaky defenses (Bremen 54 GA, Augsburg 55 GA in 31 games each) combined with the high-stakes motivation driving attacking urgency create a fertile environment for goals, supported by Augsburg's recent explosive scoring patterns.
- Bremen home games average 2.93 total goals (18 GF + 26 GA in 15 games)
- Augsburg away games average 3.0 total goals (17 GF + 28 GA in 15 games)
- Augsburg's last 5 matches all had 2+ goals, 4 of 5 had 3+ total goals
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings produced 2+ goals (3-0, 2-2, 2-0 results)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses are structurally weak — Bremen's home GA of 1.73 and Augsburg's away GA of 1.87 indicate neither can consistently keep clean sheets, and both teams' recent scoring form suggests mutual goal-scoring is likely.
- Bremen scored in 4 of last 5 matches; Augsburg scored in all last 5 matches
- Bremen concede 1.73 goals/game at home (26 GA in 15 home games)
- Augsburg concede 1.87 goals/game away (28 GA in 15 away games)
- Augsburg scored in 9 of 15 away games this season despite poor away record
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bremen's very low first-half goal production (0.4 per game) and the tactical caution typical of must-win relegation matches suggest early caginess, with the bulk of goals coming in the second half.
- Bremen average only 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded (last 10) = 1.1 total
- Augsburg average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded (last 10) = 1.4 total
- Bremen leading at HT only 20% of games; trailing 40%
- H2H: 2 of last 5 meetings had 0 first-half goals; 3 had 1-2 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bremen's home defensive record of 1.73 GA per game is among the worst in the league, and Augsburg's consistent recent scoring (5/5 matches) make a Bremen clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Bremen concede 1.73 goals per home game (26 GA in 15 home matches)
- Augsburg scored in all 5 of their last matches
- Bremen kept clean sheet in only 1 of last 5 matches (1-0 vs Wolfsburg)
- Augsburg scored in 9 of 15 away games this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAugsburg to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's abysmal away defensive record and inability to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 5 matches, combined with Bremen's improved attacking output under Thioune, strongly points against an Augsburg shutout.
- Augsburg concede 1.87 goals per away game (28 GA in 15 away games)
- Bremen scored in 4 of last 5 matches; 3 wins in last 4 under Thioune
- Augsburg kept zero clean sheets in last 5 matches (conceded in all 5)
- Bremen scored in 12 of 15 home games this season (18 GF at home)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWerder Bremen to scoreEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging 2.4 yellows and 10.4 fouls each in their last 10 matches, the combined baseline of ~4.8 cards per game strongly supports the over, amplified by the high-stakes relegation context driving aggressive play.
- Bremen average 2.4 yellow cards per game (last 10); Augsburg average 2.4 yellows per game (last 10)
- Combined average: 4.8 yellows per match for both teams
- Both teams average 10.4 fouls per game — significant foul commitment
- Relegation-proximity match intensity typically elevates card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a baseline around 9+ corners per match, and Augsburg's counter-attacking style with low possession tends to generate corners for opponents while their direct play also creates set-piece opportunities.
- Augsburg average 5.1 corners per game (last 10); Bremen average 4.1 corners
- Bremen's opponents averaged high corner counts (e.g., Stuttgart 14, Köln 8, Wolfsburg 8)
- Combined baseline ~9.2 corners, but Bremen's home corners dip (avg 4.1 includes away games)
- Recent Augsburg matches: 9, 4, 4, 2, 2 corners — volatile but some high counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined SOT average of 9.2, driven by both teams' attacking form and weak defensive structures, the over 7.5 threshold sits comfortably within expected output for this matchup.
- Bremen average 4.4 shots on target per game (last 10 matches)
- Augsburg average 4.8 shots on target per game (last 10 matches)
- Combined baseline: 9.2 SOT per match
- Both teams face leaky defenses encouraging more shot attempts in dangerous areas
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Werder Bremen1Augsburg3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 8.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 2 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Werder Bremen

Augsburg

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Werder Bremen	31	8	8	15	36-54	32	DWLLW
9	Augsburg	31	10	7	14	39-55	37	DWDDL