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Augsburg

Augsburg - Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt

🇩🇪 BundesligaFinished

Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 13:30

Finished Snapshot

FT1-1

FinishedSettled

Halftime

1-0

Predictions

6W · 4L · 0P

Edges

0W · 0L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

40%-60%

Shots

17-20

Shots on Target

3-7

Corners

9-7

Quick Take

Frankfurt arrive with superior ranking and possession control but face managerial friction and recent form volatility under Albert Riera; Augsburg's home platform and winless streak create a vulnerable backdrop.

Context Signals

Model probabilities

Double ChanceDraw or Frankfurt (X2)68%Mediumwon

Motivation asymmetry (Frankfurt chasing Europa League) and Augsburg's 5-match winless slump support Frankfurt avoiding defeat despite Augsburg's home-pitch edge; draw remains a real possibility given Frankfurt's away fragility (5 away losses) and managerial instability under Riera.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.563%Mediumlost

Discipline averages on both sides, plus Augsburg's high foul count and the relegation/Europa tension, point to 4+ combined cards (Over 3.5).

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Both Teams to ScoreYes62%Mediumwon

Both teams' defensive frailty (Augsburg 54 GA season, Frankfurt 57 GA season) combined with Frankfurt's consistent scoring volume supports BTTS; only counter is Frankfurt's clean sheet in the Dec H2H.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Away Clean SheetNo62%Mediumwon

Frankfurt's recent defensive record and Augsburg's home scoring frequency make a Frankfurt away clean sheet unlikely; only the Dec H2H clean sheet provides counter-evidence.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.560%Mediumwon

Both teams generate and concede healthy SoT volume (Augsburg especially against high-possession sides), supporting an Over on combined shots on target.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Double ChanceHome or Draw (1X)59%Lowwon

Despite Frankfurt being higher ranked, their away record and managerial turbulence plus Augsburg's home structural edge make 1X a plausible complementary hedge with LOW confidence.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Lean

Goals Over/UnderOver 2.558%Mediumlost

High-scoring recent samples for both sides and poor defensive averages (Augsburg 54 GA, Frankfurt 57 GA this season) favour Over 2.5, though H2H history has mixed scoring and trims upside.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.558%Mediumlost

Both teams' first-half profiles are low-volume on the scored side, pointing to cautious openings; the main risk is Augsburg conceding early (0.9 1H GA) to Frankfurt's possession.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Corners Over/UnderOver 8.552%Lowwon

Augsburg's low possession (43.4%) and high opponent-corner concession combined with Frankfurt's possession dominance (60.4%) should generate corner volume, but Frankfurt's own corner production is modest, so confidence is LOW.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Match WinnerEintracht Frankfurt41%Lowlost

Tactical matchup edge (Frankfurt's higher possession and lower goals-against) plus stakes motivation give Frankfurt the edge, but Riera's managerial friction and Augsburg's home-field structure cap confidence at LOW.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Augsburg:Home side winless in 5 matches with 3 defeats; Frankfurt possess superior away composure and higher Europa League motivation despite unstable coaching situation

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:Predictor thesis (58% confidence) for Over 2.5 is undercut by market pricing: 65.4% implied vs 58% estimated. Bookmakers price higher than analysis supports—fair odds offer no margin.

Both Teams to Score Yes:MEDIUM confidence prediction (62%) encounters 67.6% implied probability at 1.48. Bookmaker pricing slightly favors the play; insufficient edge for MEDIUM confidence (need 5+ point advantage).

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Augsburg host Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga clash on April 25th where mid-table stability meets Europa League desperation. Frankfurt hold a structural edge—ranking 8th with 42 points versus Augsburg's 9th place (36 points)—and possess superior possession control (60.4% vs 43.4% in recent form). However, recent intelligence reveals critical instability at Frankfurt: manager Albert Riera, appointed in late January, has won just 3 of 8 Bundesliga matches and faces visible dressing room discord after dropping Mario Götze and blowing a 2-0 lead against relegation-threatened Köln.

Recent Form

Augsburg

Augsburg

W2-1Bayer LeverkusenApr 18BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimApr 10BL

D1-1Hamburger SVApr 4BL

L2-5VfB StuttgartMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia DortmundMar 14BL

L1-2RB LeipzigMar 7BL

W2-01. FC KölnFeb 27BL

W3-2VfL WolfsburgFeb 21BL

W1-01. FC HeidenheimFeb 15BL

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Feb 7BL

Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt

L1-3RB LeipzigApr 18BL

W2-1VfL WolfsburgApr 11BL

D2-21. FC KölnApr 5BL

L1-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 22BL

W1-01. FC HeidenheimMar 14BL

D0-0FC St. PauliMar 8BL

W2-0SC FreiburgMar 1BL

L2-3Bayern MünchenFeb 21BL

W3-0Borussia MönchengladbachFeb 14BL

D1-1Union BerlinFeb 6BL

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Augsburg	30	10	6	14	38-54	36	WDDLL
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	30	11	9	10	55-57	42	LWDLW

6pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L1-0Eintracht FrankfurtvFC AugsburgDec 13, 2025BL

D0-0FC AugsburgvEintracht FrankfurtApr 20, 2025BL

D2-2Eintracht FrankfurtvFC AugsburgDec 7, 2024BL

L3-1Eintracht FrankfurtvFC AugsburgApr 19, 2024BL

L2-1FC AugsburgvEintracht FrankfurtDec 3, 2023BL

Eintracht Frankfurt unbeaten in 5 meetingsEintracht Frankfurt: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Augsburg

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Eintracht Frankfurt

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3