Augsburg11 – 1Eintracht Frankfurt1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Motivation asymmetry (Frankfurt chasing Europa League) and Augsburg's 5-match winless slump support Frankfurt avoiding defeat despite Augsburg's home-pitch edge; draw remains a real possibility given Frankfurt's away fragility (5 away losses) and managerial instability under Riera.

• Frankfurt 8th (42 pts) vs Augsburg 9th (36 pts); Frankfurt away record 4W-6D-5L vs Augsburg home 6W-4D-5L (season 2025/26)
• Augsburg form WDDLL, winless in last 5; Frankfurt form LWDLW in last 5
• Last H2H: Frankfurt 1-0 Augsburg (Dec 2025); 28-match all-time H2H balanced 9W-9W-10D
• Frankfurt fighting for Europa League qualification (motivation edge) vs Augsburg mid-table stability

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Frankfurt being higher ranked, their away record and managerial turbulence plus Augsburg's home structural edge make 1X a plausible complementary hedge with LOW confidence.

• Augsburg home record: 6W-4D-5L (21 GF, 26 GA) in 15 games this season
• Augsburg won last meeting played at home (H2H sample mixed)
• Frankfurt away record 4W-6D-5L — only 4 away wins from 15
• Frankfurt's Riera under pressure, blew 2-0 lead vs Köln recently

BetBugs · Double ChancewonAugsburg or DrawEstimated chance59%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' defensive frailty (Augsburg 54 GA season, Frankfurt 57 GA season) combined with Frankfurt's consistent scoring volume supports BTTS; only counter is Frankfurt's clean sheet in the Dec H2H.

• Augsburg scored in 4 of last 5; Frankfurt scored in 4 of last 5
• Augsburg conceded in 4 of last 5 (avg 1.7 conceded/match); Frankfurt conceded in 4 of last 5 (avg 1.2)
• Season totals: Augsburg 38 GF/54 GA, Frankfurt 55 GF/57 GA — both teams leak and score
• 3 of last 5 H2H meetings saw both teams score (2-2, 2-2, 3-1)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Frankfurt's recent defensive record and Augsburg's home scoring frequency make a Frankfurt away clean sheet unlikely; only the Dec H2H clean sheet provides counter-evidence.

• Augsburg scored in 4 of last 5 at home/away mix; avg 1.4 goals
• Frankfurt conceded in 4 of last 5 matches (avg 1.2 GA)
• Frankfurt kept just 1 clean sheet in last 5 (1-0 vs Heidenheim)
• Augsburg home GF this season: 21 in 15 — decent home scoring baseline

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAugsburg to scoreEstimated chance62%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Augsburg's low possession (43.4%) and high opponent-corner concession combined with Frankfurt's possession dominance (60.4%) should generate corner volume, but Frankfurt's own corner production is modest, so confidence is LOW.

• Augsburg avg 4.6 corners / 7.4 opponent corners in last 10 (12.0 combined)
• Frankfurt avg 4.3 corners / 4.4 opponent corners in last 10 (8.7 combined)
• Augsburg concedes heavy shot volume (opponent shots avg ~19) — likely to concede corners
• Mixed sample: some H2H patterns unavailable (no corner data in H2H JSON)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams generate and concede healthy SoT volume (Augsburg especially against high-possession sides), supporting an Over on combined shots on target.

• Augsburg avg 5.1 SoT / 5.8 opponent SoT (last 10, combined ~10.9)
• Frankfurt avg 4.6 SoT / 6.0 opponent SoT (last 10, combined ~10.6)
• Both defences porous — Augsburg conceded 10+ shots on target in several recent games (Leverkusen 10)
• Combined shots totals last 10: ~25 per game