Umea FC2Hammarby TFF1

HT 1–1Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 01:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Umeå's three wins in 12 home league games meet Hammarby TFF's eight in 12 on the road, yet Umeå won the most recent meeting 2-1 in April and have taken 12 points from their last six.

Hammarby look the likelier single winner, but 1.62 for their win is short. Umeå to win at 4.00 and Umeå to win or draw at 2.15 are the prices that hold up.

Context

Hedlöf is out for the rest of the season with a hip problem, and he is listed among the absentees for this fixture. Hammarby TFF will close out the campaign without a midfielder registered in their Ettan squad, which thins the cover available for the final rounds. The limitation is that he had not been a settled starter, so this is mostly a depth issue rather than a direct hole in the first-choice eleven.
- Björn Hedlöf is out for the remainder of the 2026 season with a hip injury.
- He is listed among the players missing for the Hammarby TFF trip to Umeå FC.
- B. Hedlof started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. Moses started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when B. Hedlof did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 00:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Hammarby TFF were placed third in Ettan Norra going into the last week of September, while FC Stockholm led the division. That keeps the visitors among the sides with a live interest in the closing rounds, which makes the trip to Umeå a meaningful fixture for them. The caveat is that the available evidence does not establish how tight the gaps at the top were, so the precise pressure on this match cannot be pinned down.
- Hammarby TFF were third in Ettan Norra ahead of the round played on 25–28 September.
- They won 2-1 at home against bottom side IFK Stocksund on 25 September.
- FC Stockholm were setting the pace at the top of the division during the same period.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 00:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Umeå FC are at home here but hold the better recent record in this specific fixture, having won the most recent meeting 2-1 in April 2026.
Four straight away wins in this fixture do not make Umeå favourites on their own, but they do cut against a straight reading of the table, where Hammarby TFF sit eight places and 16 points higher. Umeå's two wins in the sequence came by a single goal, so the margins between the sides in this fixture have been small.
- Umeå FC won 2-1 at Hammarby TFF (listed as Hammarby Talang) in Ettan Norra on 6 April 2026.
- The away team has won the last four meetings: 6 April 2026 (Hammarby 1-2 Umeå), 21 September 2024 (Umeå 1-2 Hammarby), 12 May 2024 (Hammarby 1-2 Umeå) and 1 October 2023 (Umeå 0-1 Hammarby).
- Hammarby won the remaining meeting of the five since 2023, 3-2 at home on 13 May 2023.
Hammarby TFF's campaign has been built on the road, while Umeå FC's home results are the weakest part of their season.
This is the sharpest split between the two teams and it is why Hammarby are the shorter price for the win. The counterweight is that Umeå's away numbers (five wins, two draws, five defeats, 18 scored and 17 conceded) are better than their home ones, so the venue has not been helping them this season.
- Ettan Norra table as of 2 October 2026: Hammarby TFF 3rd, 45 points from 24 games (13W 6D 5L, 50 scored, 23 conceded).
- Hammarby TFF league away record: 8W 1D 3L, 28 scored, 11 conceded in 12 games.
- Umeå FC league home record: 3W 3D 6L, 14 scored, 23 conceded in 12 games.
- Umeå FC league away record: 5W 2D 5L, 18 scored, 17 conceded in 12 games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalflostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 83.3%

−9.3ppshort

Hammarby rarely score early and their away games are low-scoring before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby are the stronger side over the season and have the best away numbers in this matchup, while Umea concede heavily at home.
- Hammarby TFF sit 3rd on 45 points while Umea FC are 11th on 29.
- Their league away record is 8W 1D 3L with 28 scored and 11 conceded in 12 games.
- They average 1.8 goals across 15 tracked matches and 2.14 in 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in both teams' games are low-scoring, which keeps a level scoreline at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Umea's home matches average 1.86 first-half goals in total (1.0 for, 0.86 against).
- Hammarby's away matches average about 1.0 first-half goal in total (0.57 for, 0.43 against).
- Hammarby's last six league matches produced 5 first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby do most of their scoring after the break while Umea have been vulnerable in second halves at home.
- Hammarby score 1.57 second-half goals per tracked away match and concede 0.71.
- Umea concede 1.29 second-half goals per tracked home match.
- Hammarby have scored 19 of their 27 tracked goals after half-time.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea's strong record in this fixture and better recent results keep them firmly in the contest despite a poor home season. Hammarby are the stronger side over the season and have the best away numbers in this matchup, while Umea concede heavily at home.
- Umea FC are 11th on 29 points from 24 league games; Hammarby TFF are 3rd on 45.
- Umea's league home record is 3W 3D 6L with 14 scored and 23 conceded in 12 games.
- Hammarby TFF sit 3rd on 45 points while Umea FC are 11th on 29.
- Their league away record is 8W 1D 3L with 28 scored and 11 conceded in 12 games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUmea FC or Hammarby TFFEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea start games at home noticeably better than Hammarby do on their travels, and Hammarby have been slow to score early. First halves in both teams' games are low-scoring, which keeps a level scoreline at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Umea score 1.0 first-half goals per tracked home match.
- Hammarby score 0.53 first-half goals per tracked match and 0.57 per tracked away match.
- Umea's home matches average 1.86 first-half goals in total (1.0 for, 0.86 against).
- Hammarby's away matches average about 1.0 first-half goal in total (0.57 for, 0.43 against).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonUmea FC or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' home and away goal averages sit above three, and recent meetings between them have been high-scoring.
- Umea's 14 tracked matches average 2.86 goals; their 7 home matches average 3.29.
- Hammarby's 15 tracked matches average 2.8 goals; their 7 away matches average 3.29.
- Four of the last five meetings produced three goals or more.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Umea's home defence concedes regularly and Umea themselves find a goal in most matches, pointing to both teams scoring.
- Umea average 1.14 goals in 7 tracked home matches and concede 2.14 in those games.
- Hammarby average 2.14 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Umea have scored in five of their last six league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea's home attacking output is low and the visitors have been hard to score against on their travels.
- Umea average 1.14 goals across 7 tracked home matches.
- Umea were held to one goal or none in their most recent home league games against Karlstad and Stockholm Internazionale.
- Hammarby have conceded 11 goals in 12 league away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostUmea FC under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's away scoring average and Umea's leaky home defence both point to the visitors scoring at least twice.
- Hammarby average 2.14 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Umea concede 2.14 goals per tracked home match.
- Hammarby scored two goals in their 2-1 win over Stocksund on 25 September.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHammarby TFF over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea's home defensive record is poor and Hammarby score regularly on the road, so a blank for the visitors looks unlikely.
- Hammarby average 2.14 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Umea concede 2.14 goals per tracked home match.
- Umea have kept 2 clean sheets in their 7 tracked home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHammarby TFF to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea have found the net consistently of late and Hammarby's away defence still concedes more than a goal a game.
- Umea have scored in five of their last six league matches.
- Umea scored three at home against Vasalund on 30 August.
- Hammarby concede 1.14 goals per tracked away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUmea FC to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea usually find a goal, so even a Hammarby victory is more likely to come with Umea scoring.
- Umea have scored in five of their last six league matches.
- Hammarby have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 tracked matches.
- Two of Hammarby's last six games finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Almost every recent game involving these sides has featured at least one goal before the break.
- Umea's home matches average 1.86 first-half goals in total.
- Hammarby's away matches average about 1.0 first-half goal in total.
- Umea's last six matches produced 9 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Hammarby rarely score early and their away games are low-scoring before the break.
- Hammarby score 0.53 first-half goals per tracked match and 0.57 per tracked away match.
- Umea's home matches average 1.86 first-half goals in total.
- Hammarby have conceded 3 first-half goals in their last six league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these two teams' matches carry most of the goals, with Hammarby's away games especially heavy after the break.
- Umea's home matches average 1.43 second-half goals (0.14 for, 1.29 against).
- Hammarby's away matches average 2.29 second-half goals (1.57 for, 0.71 against).
- Hammarby have scored 19 of their 27 tracked goals in second halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%