Onsala BK1Qviding FIF2

HT 1–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 17:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Onsala, with two straight clean-sheet wins behind them, host a Qviding side four points better off but without an away clean sheet in eight tracked matches.

A close, mid-table game is the read, and the two prices with something behind them are under 2.5 goals at 3.3 and the draw at 4; the 1.29 on over 2.5 goals and the 1.17 on a first-half goal ask more than the record supports, as do the flat prices on either team to win.

Context

Onsala come into this fixture with the most recent result between the sides in their favour, and it was earned on Qviding's ground.
The 22 May 2026 game finished 2-1 to Onsala as the away side, a single-goal margin in the same division as this fixture. It is one result from a five-game head-to-head record rather than a long pattern, so it is a small sample. The useful reading is that Onsala have recently won on this opponent's ground, though the scoreline itself was tight.
- Qviding FIF 1-2 Onsala, Division 2 Västra Götaland, 22 May 2026 — the most recent of the five recorded meetings between the clubs.
Qviding's away sample is the weakest part of their season and it points to goals at their end on the road.
The eight-match away sample from 14 May to 13 September 2026 reads two wins, two draws and four defeats, with no clean sheets and both teams scoring in six of those games. Onsala have scored in most of their tracked home matches and kept three clean sheets at home, so an away shutout here would be a departure from Qviding's pattern. It is a small sample from a single division, so it is a lean rather than a fixed rate.
- Qviding tracked away matches: 8 played, 2W-2D-4L, 1.13 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game, 0 clean sheets, both teams scored in 6.
- Away-match window: 14 May to 13 September 2026.
Örgryte IS published the loan on 31 August and Fotbolltransfers.com carried it as official the same morning, so this is a completed move rather than a rumour. It places a player from an Allsvenskan first-team squad inside Qviding's group for the closing weeks of the Division 2 season, a window that contains this fixture at Onsala. Neither Qviding nor any local coverage found has since described how much he has played or which position he fills, so the practical selection effect remains unproven and the addition is best read as squad depth.
- Örgryte IS announced on 31 August 2026 that Love Kyhlén is loaned out to Qviding FIF.
- Fotbolltransfers.com carried the same move as official the same morning.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Onsala have neither dominated nor been overwhelmed at home in the tracked sample.
Across seven home matches from 30 May to 12 September 2026, Onsala scored 1.29 and conceded 1.57 per game, keeping three clean sheets but winning only twice. That 2.86-goal average means both a tight afternoon and a three-goal one sit inside the sample. The home split is small, and a single heavy defeat inside it can move the numbers a long way.
- Onsala tracked home matches: 7 played, 2W-2D-3L, 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game, 3 clean sheets.
- Home-match window: 30 May to 12 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.17fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 85.5%

−11.5ppshort

First-half goal totals for both sides are above one per game, making at least one goal before the break the likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Onsala have the home ground, a clear recent head-to-head record and two straight wins going into this game.
- Onsala tracked home matches: 2W-2D-3L with 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game
- Head-to-head: Onsala won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including 2-1 away in May 2026
- Table: Onsala 9th on 27 points, Qviding 8th on 31 points
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOnsala BKEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides score little before the break, so the interval score is often level.
- Both teams average 0.73 first-half goals scored per game overall
- Onsala's home first halves produce 1.43 total goals on average
- Qviding's away first halves produce 1.38 total goals on average
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Qviding concede noticeably more after the break away from home, giving Onsala the better second-half outlook.
- Onsala score 0.71 and concede 0.71 second-half goals per tracked home game
- Qviding score 0.75 and concede 1.38 second-half goals per tracked away game
- Qviding's overall second-half concession rate is 1.07 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOnsala BKEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Onsala have the home ground, a clear recent head-to-head record and two straight wins going into this game. Qviding score more often than Onsala over the season and have the better league position, so they remain a live chance.
- Onsala tracked home matches: 2W-2D-3L with 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game
- Head-to-head: Onsala won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including 2-1 away in May 2026
- Qviding tracked away matches: 2W-2D-4L with 1.13 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game
- Qviding overall in the window: 6W-3D-6L, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.93 per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOnsala BK or Qviding FIFEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Onsala's home first halves are tight but they concede rather than dominate, so a home lead is only the smaller possibility. Both sides score little before the break, so the interval score is often level.
- Onsala score 0.57 and concede 0.86 first-half goals per tracked home game
- Qviding score 0.38 and concede 1.00 first-half goals per tracked away game
- Both teams average 0.73 first-half goals scored per game overall
- Onsala's home first halves produce 1.43 total goals on average
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonOnsala BK or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding's away games have produced goals at both ends regularly, and Onsala concede more than they score at home.
- Onsala tracked home matches average 2.86 total goals (1.29 for, 1.57 against)
- Qviding tracked away matches average 3.5 total goals (1.13 for, 2.38 against)
- Qviding have both scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding rarely keep clean sheets away and Onsala score at home more often than not, pointing to both teams finding the net.
- Qviding have both scored and conceded in 6 of 8 tracked away matches
- Qviding overall have seen both teams score in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- Onsala have both scored and conceded in 3 of 7 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onsala's home scoring rate sits just above one goal a game, so one goal or none is the more likely outcome.
- Onsala score 1.29 goals per tracked home game
- Onsala's overall average is 1.33 goals per game
- Onsala failed to score in one recent home match against Dalstorps
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonOnsala BK under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding's away scoring rate is close to one goal a game, with Onsala keeping a reasonable number of home clean sheets.
- Qviding score 1.13 goals per tracked away game
- Qviding were held scoreless in 2 of 8 tracked away matches
- Onsala kept 3 clean sheets in 7 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostQviding FIF under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding score in most away games and Onsala concede regularly at home, so a home shutout is unlikely.
- Qviding scored in 6 of 8 tracked away matches
- Onsala conceded 1.57 goals per tracked home game
- Onsala have conceded in 4 of their last 6 tracked matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQviding FIF to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding concede heavily away from home and have not shut out an away opponent in the tracked sample.
- Qviding have 0 clean sheets in 8 tracked away matches
- Qviding concede 2.38 goals per tracked away game
- Onsala scored in the majority of their tracked home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOnsala BK to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding usually score away, which makes a home win without conceding the less likely combination.
- Qviding scored in 6 of 8 tracked away matches
- Onsala have won only 2 of 7 tracked home matches
- Onsala have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
First-half goal totals for both sides are above one per game, making at least one goal before the break the likely outcome.
- Onsala home first halves average 1.43 total goals
- Qviding away first halves average 1.38 total goals
- Both teams average 0.73 first-half goals scored per game overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring for both teams is low, so at least one side is likely to be held scoreless before the break.
- Onsala score 0.57 first-half goals per tracked home game
- Qviding score 0.38 first-half goals per tracked away game
- Onsala average 0.73 first-half goals scored overall
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding's away games produce plenty of second-half goals, so two or more after the break is a genuine possibility.
- Onsala home second halves average 1.43 total goals
- Qviding away second halves average 2.13 total goals
- Qviding's two most recent away matches produced second-half goals for both teams
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%