El Paso Locomotive1Monterey Bay0

HT 1–0Thu 6 Aug 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–3–163%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 06:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Monterey Bay's winless away record (0-2-7) makes El Paso likely to avoid defeat, but the 1.04 odds on home win or double chance offer no value.

Instead, back 'Over 0.5 First Half Goals' at 4.50 (70% estimated probability) and 'Both Teams to Score' at 8.00 (60% estimated probability) for clear betting edges.

Context

Monterey Bay away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses.
- They have conceded 20 goals in 9 away matches, an average of 2.2 per game.
- Their last four away matches were all defeats.
El Paso home record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- They have conceded 16 goals in 7 home matches, an average of 2.3 per game.
- In their last 5 home matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
Last 5 H2H: El Paso 2 wins, Monterey Bay 2 wins, 1 draw.
- The most recent meeting at Southwest University Park was a 1-0 El Paso win on 2026-08-06.
- Monterey Bay won the previous away fixture 1-0 in June 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

El Paso Locomotive

1.04fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 96%

0.0ppshort

El Paso's home advantage and Monterey's dreadful away form (0 wins, 20 goals conceded in 9 away matches) give the hosts a clear edge, supported by their recent H2H home win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
El Paso's home advantage and Monterey's dreadful away form (0 wins, 20 goals conceded in 9 away matches) give the hosts a clear edge, supported by their recent H2H home win.
- El Paso won the most recent H2H at home 1-0 on 2026-08-06.
- El Paso home record: 2W-2D-3L, but Monterey away record: 0W-2D-7L with 8 goals scored and 20 conceded.
- El Paso overall form last 5: L-W-L-W-L, Monterey: L-L-L-D-W.
- El Paso sits 8th with 22 pts, Monterey 12th with 15 pts; El Paso has a +7 point gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's inability to win on the road makes an El Paso win or draw highly probable, as the visitors have failed to secure an away victory all season.
- Monterey Bay has not won an away match this season (0W-2D-7L).
- El Paso has lost only 3 of 7 home matches, with 2 wins and 2 draws.
- H2H last 5: El Paso 2 wins, Monterey 2 wins, 1 draw; at El Paso, the last meeting was a 1-0 home win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEl Paso Locomotive or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
El Paso has a slight edge in first-half performance at home, and Monterey often trails on the road, but the low overall lead rate keeps confidence low.
- El Paso led at halftime in 20% of matches overall, but at home they led in 2 of 7 (29%).
- Monterey trailed at halftime in 27% of matches, but away they trailed in 4 of 9 (44%).
- Last H2H at El Paso: El Paso led 1-0 at halftime.
- El Paso's recent home form: led at halftime in 2 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monterey's poor away second-half record gives El Paso an edge, but El Paso's own home defensive issues make this a low-confidence call.
- El Paso has a better second-half record at home, winning the second half in 3 of 7 matches.
- Monterey has lost the second half in 6 of 9 away matches.
- Last H2H at El Paso: second half ended 0-0, but El Paso held on to win.
- El Paso's overall goal difference is 0, but at home they have a -4 goal difference, suggesting second-half struggles.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerpushEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While El Paso has shown the ability to lead at halftime and win at home, the low frequency of such outcomes makes this a low-probability prediction.
- El Paso has led at halftime and won the match in 2 of 7 home games (29%).
- Monterey has trailed at halftime and lost the match in 4 of 9 away games (44%).
- Last H2H at El Paso: El Paso led at halftime and won 1-0.
- El Paso's overall HT/FT win rate is 20%, but at home it's slightly higher.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonEl Paso Locomotive / El Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses, especially Monterey on the road, and El Paso's home games tend to be high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- El Paso home matches average 4.0 total goals (12 scored, 16 conceded in 7 games).
- Monterey away matches average 3.1 total goals (8 scored, 20 conceded in 9 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have negative goal differences, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net but also concede regularly, especially Monterey on the road, suggesting a strong chance of both teams scoring.
- El Paso has scored in 6 of 7 home matches this season.
- Monterey has scored in 6 of 9 away matches, but conceded in all 9.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.
- El Paso conceded in 6 of 7 home matches; Monterey conceded in all 9 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with historical H2H data showing early goals in most meetings, making over 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- El Paso home first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.7 conceded on average.
- Monterey away first-half goals: 0.8 scored, 0.7 conceded on average.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 matches had at least one first-half goal.
- El Paso's recent home matches: 4 of last 5 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Defensive lapses in the second half are common for both teams, and historical data shows a pattern of multiple goals after the break, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- El Paso home matches: 6 of 7 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Monterey away matches: 7 of 9 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams concede heavily in the second half, especially Monterey away (1.3 goals conceded per second half on average).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, we rely on league averages, but the lack of team-specific stats makes this a speculative call with low confidence.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- USL Championship average corners per match is approximately 9.2.
- No specific corner trends can be derived from the provided data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds of 1.04 imply a 96% chance, far above our 45% estimate; no value and extreme risk of a draw or away win.

Prediction history

El Paso Locomotive has been inconsistent when projected to win

El Paso Locomotive has fulfilled 2 of 4 win predictions. Both fulfilled predictions came at home, where they are 2 for 3, while their only away prediction resulted in a loss. The current probability of 45% sits within the historical range of 45–55%, but the two missed predictions both occurred when the probability was at the lower end of that range.

Recent evidence for El Paso Locomotive4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship