San Antonio FC0El Paso Locomotive3

HT 0–3Sun 16 Aug 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 07:57 · Europe/Bucharest

San Antonio's home form makes them unlikely to lose, so the double chance (San Antonio or Draw) at 1.40 is the safest play, though the edge is minimal.

Both teams to score at 1.78 offers a slightly better value with a 58% estimated probability. Avoid the match winner and Asian handicap markets, as they offer no value.

Context

San Antonio home record: 5W-3D-1L in USL Championship.
- They have scored in 8 of 9 home matches.
- Only one home defeat all season.
El Paso away record: 4W-2D-4L.
- They have scored in 8 of 10 away matches.
- Four away losses show vulnerability.
San Antonio won 5-2 on 25 Oct 2025.
- Overall series is tight: El Paso 4 wins, 6 losses, 5 draws.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
San Antonio have 32 points, El Paso 28.
- Top eight in each conference reach playoffs.
- Regular season runs through 24 October, so no dead-rubber yet.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored or conceded in the first half in the majority of recent matches, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's strong home form and recent H2H dominance give them the edge, but El Paso's solid away record keeps confidence medium.
- San Antonio home record: 5W-3D-1L, 14 goals for, 8 against in 9 matches
- El Paso away record: 4W-2D-4L, 15 goals for, 11 against in 10 matches
- San Antonio won latest H2H 5-2 at home on 25 Oct 2025
- San Antonio rank 2nd in Western Conference with 32 points; El Paso rank 6th with 28
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan Antonio FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home resilience makes them unlikely to lose, supporting a high-probability double chance.
- San Antonio home record: 5W-3D-1L (only 1 loss in 9 home games)
- El Paso away record: 4W-2D-4L (4 losses in 10 away games)
- San Antonio unbeaten in 8 of 9 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSan Antonio FC or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's superior first-half performance gives them a slight edge, but low confidence due to variability.
- San Antonio led at halftime in 53% of matches
- El Paso led at halftime in only 27% of matches
- San Antonio first half goal difference: +0.3 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSan Antonio FCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's tendency to lead at halftime and win at home supports this outcome, but probability remains low due to uncertainty.
- San Antonio led at halftime in 53% of matches and won 42% overall
- El Paso trailed at halftime in 27% and lost 37% overall
- San Antonio home win rate: 56%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSan Antonio FC / San Antonio FCEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined home/away goal averages and recent high-scoring H2H suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- San Antonio home matches average 2.44 total goals (14+8)/9
- El Paso away matches average 2.6 total goals (15+11)/10
- Last H2H produced 7 goals (5-2)
- Both teams have scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history supports BTTS.
- San Antonio scored in 8 of 9 home matches
- El Paso scored in 8 of 10 away matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- San Antonio first half goals per match: 0.8, conceded 0.5
- El Paso first half goals per match: 0.5, conceded 0.6
- Combined first half goal average: 1.3 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals in the second half.
- San Antonio second half goals per match: 0.9 (1.7 total - 0.8 first half)
- El Paso second half goals per match: 0.5 (1.0 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half goal average: 1.4 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, this is a neutral estimate based on league averages.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL Championship average corners per match typically around 9-10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
No card data available, so this is a neutral estimate based on league norms.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL Championship average cards per match typically around 3-4
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

San Antonio FC: Over 2.5 goals has hit in 3 of 7 recent matches

San Antonio FC has fulfilled the Over 2.5 goals prediction in 3 of 7 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 58.6%, with an expected 4.1 fulfilled predictions, indicating slight underperformance. At home, they have hit Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 matches, while away they have hit it in only 1 of 4.

Recent evidence for San Antonio FC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·USL Championship