Suwon1Cheonan City1

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges5–456%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Suwon are strong favourites at home against a struggling Cheonan City, but the match winner odds offer no value.

The standout betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20 (model 55% vs implied 45.5%). Avoid Over 2.5 total goals, BTTS Yes, and first-half Over 0.5, as they are all overpriced.

Context

Suwon sit fourth in K League 2 with 44 points from 23 matches, inside the promotion playoff places.
Their home record is the strongest part of their season: no defeats in ten games, with 22 goals scored and only nine conceded. Cheonan City have lost seven of 12 away matches, so Suwon's home strength is a clear advantage. The sample is limited to ten home games, but the contrast with Cheonan's away struggles is stark.
- Suwon home record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses in 10 matches.
- Suwon have scored 22 goals and conceded 9 at home.
- Cheonan City away record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses in 12 matches.
Matheus Frizzo has started all five recent Suwon matches with available lineups, most recently in central midfield against Yongin on 5 September.
Frizzo was taken to hospital after losing consciousness in a 17th-minute collision with Yongin goalkeeper Hwang Seong-min, and no clearance or withdrawal has been confirmed before this fixture. If he is unavailable, Suwon must change the central midfield pairing that started their last league match. The absence of any official update leaves his participation unresolved rather than ruled out.
- Frizzo started in Suwon FC’s central midfield against Yongin on 5 September.
- He collided with Yongin goalkeeper Hwang Seong-min in the 17th minute, lost consciousness and was taken away by ambulance.
- No subsequent official fitness update was located before 12 September.
- Matheus Frizzo started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/BucharestGOAL Koreawww.goal.com · 5 Sep 2026
Cheonan City are 14th in K League 2 with 22 points, nine points above the relegation line.
Their recent form is poor: no wins in five matches, including a 0-1 home loss to Suwon Bluewings on 22 August and a 0-1 away loss to Jeonnam Dragons on 28 August. They have scored only 28 goals in 24 matches, the third-lowest total in the league. This lack of scoring makes it hard for them to trouble a solid Suwon defence.
- Cheonan City form: DLLDL (last five matches).
- Cheonan City have 4 wins, 10 draws, 10 losses in 24 matches.
- Cheonan City have scored 28 goals in 24 matches, third-lowest in K League 2.
Suwon are fourth in K League 2 and pushing for promotion.
In their last five league games, Suwon scored 12 goals: 5-0 against Jeonnam Dragons on 10 July, 3-1 against Ansan Greeners on 4 July, and 2-1 against Busan I Park on 30 August. They average 2.1 goals per match overall. Cheonan City have conceded 33 goals in 24 matches, so Suwon's attack should create chances.
- Suwon scored 5 goals against Jeonnam Dragons on 10 July 2026.
- Suwon scored 3 goals against Ansan Greeners on 4 July 2026.
- Suwon average 2.1 goals per match this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's strong home form and superior league position give them a clear edge over a struggling Cheonan City side.
- Suwon are unbeaten at home this season with 6 wins and 4 draws in 10 matches.
- Suwon have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, scoring 2.1 goals per game on average.
- Cheonan City have lost 7 of 12 away matches this season and have only 2 away wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSuwonEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Suwon's unbeaten home record and Cheonan's poor away form, Suwon or Draw is highly likely.
- Suwon have not lost at home this season (6W, 4D).
- Cheonan City have lost 7 of 12 away matches.
- Suwon are 4th in the league while Cheonan are 14th.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuwon or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's superior first-half performance and home advantage give them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Suwon lead at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Cheonan City trail at half-time in 33% of their matches.
- Suwon have scored first-half goals in 6 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSuwonEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's ability to control matches from the start makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Suwon have led at half-time and won in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Cheonan City have trailed at half-time and lost in 3 of their last 10 matches.
- Suwon are unbeaten at home this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSuwon/SuwonEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's attacking output combined with Cheonan's defensive vulnerabilities suggests a high-scoring game.
- Suwon average 2.1 goals scored per match overall and 2.2 at home.
- Cheonan City concede 1.7 goals per match on average.
- Suwon's recent home matches have seen 3+ goals in 4 of the last 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's ability to score, especially with Toungara in form, makes both teams scoring plausible.
- Cheonan City have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Suwon have conceded in 6 of their last 10 matches.
- Cheonan's away matches average 1.5 goals scored per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's tendency to start strongly at home makes a first-half goal likely.
- Suwon average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Cheonan City concede 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Suwon have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more open in the second half, increasing the chance of multiple goals.
- Suwon average 1.2 second-half goals per match.
- Cheonan City concede 1.0 second-half goals per match.
- Suwon's recent matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 5 of the last 8.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's solid home defense could shut out a Cheonan side that struggles for goals away.
- Suwon have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Cheonan City have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 away matches.
- Suwon concede 0.9 goals per home match on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCheonan City not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's poor away defensive record makes it very unlikely they will keep a clean sheet.
- Cheonan City have kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 away matches.
- Suwon have scored in 9 of their 10 home matches.
- Suwon average 2.2 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSuwon to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Suwon win without conceding is possible given Cheonan's away scoring struggles.
- Suwon have won to nil in 3 of their last 10 home matches.
- Cheonan City have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 away matches.
- Suwon's home defense concedes less than a goal per game.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan winning without conceding is highly improbable against Suwon's strong home attack.
- Cheonan City have won to nil in only 1 of 12 away matches.
- Suwon have scored in 9 of 10 home matches.
- Cheonan's away defense concedes 1.8 goals per game.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance90%

Prediction history

Suwon has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Suwon has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win predictions. The two missed predictions both ended in draws, with no losses. The current 65% probability is within the historical range of 45% to 65%.

Recent evidence for Suwon4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·K League 2