K League 2Full time

Predictions graded

Yongin FC1Suwon1

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 04:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Suwon FC are favourites to win at Yongin and close the gap on league leaders, but the betting markets offer little value.

The most notable mispricings are in first-half markets, where odds imply much higher probabilities than our model estimates, making them avoidable. Focus on the match narrative rather than seeking a betting edge.

Context

Suwon are second in K League 2 with 43 points from 22 matches, four points behind leaders Suwon Bluewings. Yongin are 11th with 25 points.
Suwon's away record is strong with six wins in twelve matches, while Yongin have managed only two home wins all season. This gap in table position and home form suggests Suwon can control the match, but Yongin's ten draws show they are hard to beat and could still frustrate the visitors.
- Suwon are 2nd with 43 points; Yongin are 11th with 25 points.
- Yongin's home record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 11 matches.
- Suwon's away record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses in 12 matches.
Suwon FC begin the round second on 43 points, with leaders Suwon on 47 after one additional match.
Three points at Yongin would reduce that gap to one, raising Suwon FC's incentive to seek a result rather than treat the fixture as routine. The league identifies this as the match of Round 25, reflecting its immediate promotion-race consequences.
- The K League lists Suwon FC second with 43 points from 22 matches.
- Leaders Suwon have 47 points from 23 matches.
- The league identifies Yongin versus Suwon FC as the match of Round 25.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 04:26 · Europe/BucharestK League 2 2026 Round 25 previewwww.kleague.com · 2 Sep 2026Suwon FC club page and league tablewww.kleague.com · 3 Sep 2026
Suwon have scored 45 goals in 22 league matches, the second-highest total in K League 2. Yongin have scored 29 goals in the same number of games.
Suwon's scoring rate of 2.1 goals per match is well above Yongin's 1.3. This difference in attacking output gives Suwon a clear edge, especially since Yongin's defence has conceded 31 goals, only slightly fewer than Suwon's 27.
- Suwon average 2.1 goals per match; Yongin average 1.3.
- Suwon have scored 45 goals in 22 matches; Yongin have scored 29.
- Yongin have conceded 31 goals; Suwon have conceded 27.
Suwon FC midfielder Han Chan-Hee is set to return at Yongin.
His availability broadens Suwon FC's midfield options for this away fixture. The official K League 25th-round preview states that his return will strengthen Suwon FC.
- The official K League 25th-round preview states that Han Chan-Hee’s return will strengthen Suwon FC.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 04:26 · Europe/BucharestK League 2 2026 Round 25 previewwww.kleague.com · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Suwon

1.82fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's superior away form and promotion motivation justify their status as favourites, but the odds offer no value cushion.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Suwon

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's low loss rate and Yongin's poor home win rate make this a high-probability outcome, but the odds are fair.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Suwon

1.21fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's first-half lead rate is only 40%, so the market's implied probability exceeds our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' scoring and conceding averages point to a match with at least three goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, making a both-teams-score outcome likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Given the moderate first-half scoring rates, it is more likely that at least one team fails to score in the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's superior league position, away form, and promotion motivation give them a clear edge over a mid-table Yongin side.
- Suwon are 2nd with 43 points from 22 matches; Yongin are 11th with 25 points.
- Suwon's away record: 6W 3D 3L, 23 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Yongin's home record: 2W 5D 4L, 14 goals scored, 16 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Suwon's recent form: WWDWW; Yongin's recent form: WLWDD.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSuwonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's low loss rate and Yongin's poor home win rate make a Suwon win or draw highly likely.
- Suwon have lost only 3 of 22 league matches this season.
- Yongin have won only 2 of 11 home matches.
- Suwon's away record: 6W 3D 3L; Yongin's home record: 2W 5D 4L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SuwonEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's superior first-half scoring and half-time lead record give them an edge, though a draw at half-time is also common.
- Suwon have led at half-time in 40% of matches; Yongin in 13%.
- Suwon average 0.9 first-half goals; Yongin average 0.5.
- Suwon's first-half goal difference: +0.4 per match; Yongin's: 0.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSuwonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's stronger overall and second-half scoring suggests they are more likely to win the second half.
- Suwon average 1.2 second-half goals; Yongin average 0.8.
- Suwon have won 12 of 22 matches overall; Yongin have won 5 of 22.
- Suwon's second-half goal difference: +0.4 per match; Yongin's: -0.1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSuwonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's ability to lead at half-time and win matches makes a Suwon/Suwon HT/FT double possible, though not highly probable.
- Suwon have led at half-time in 40% of matches and won 55% overall.
- Yongin have led at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Suwon's away record: 6W 3D 3L.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSuwon/SuwonEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's consistent scoring in both halves and Yongin's occasional collapses make this a low-probability but possible outcome.
- Suwon have won both halves in 3 of 22 matches (14%).
- Yongin have lost both halves in 4 of 22 matches (18%).
- Suwon's first-half and second-half goal differences are both positive.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostSuwonEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's strong first-half record and Yongin's low half-time lead rate make a Suwon lead or draw at half-time likely.
- Suwon have led at half-time in 40% of matches; Yongin in 13%.
- Suwon have trailed at half-time in 27% of matches; Yongin in 27%.
- Suwon's first-half goal difference: +0.4; Yongin's: 0.0.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or SuwonEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages point to a match with at least three goals.
- Suwon average 2.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
- Yongin average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Suwon's away matches average 3.4 total goals (23 scored + 18 conceded in 12 games).
- Yongin's home matches average 2.7 total goals (14 scored + 16 conceded in 11 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making a both-teams-score outcome likely.
- Suwon have scored in 20 of 22 league matches (91%).
- Yongin have scored in 17 of 22 league matches (77%).
- Suwon have conceded in 15 of 22 league matches (68%).
- Yongin have conceded in 17 of 22 league matches (77%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.
- Suwon average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Yongin average 0.5 first-half goals per match.
- Suwon have led at half-time in 40% of matches; Yongin in 13%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Suwon average 1.2 second-half goals per match (2.1 total - 0.9 first-half).
- Yongin average 0.8 second-half goals per match (1.3 total - 0.5 first-half).
- Combined second-half average: 2.0 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the moderate first-half scoring rates, it is more likely that at least one team fails to score in the first half.
- Suwon average 0.9 first-half goals; Yongin average 0.5.
- Suwon have conceded 0.5 first-half goals per match; Yongin have conceded 0.5.
- Combined first-half scoring average: 1.4 goals, but both teams scoring in first half is less common.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%