K League 2Full time

Predictions graded

Cheonan City0Gimhae Fc1

HT 0–1Fri 10 Jul 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 17:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Cheonan City's strong home form and Gimhae's league-worst defense make the double chance (Cheonan or Draw) a safe play, but the best value lies in both teams to score, where our 60% probability estimate beats the market's 53.2% implied odds.

Avoid the home win and first-half goals markets, which are overpriced given Cheonan's high draw rate and Gimhae's poor first-half scoring.

Context

Cheonan have 19 points, with 6th-place Hwaseong on 25 points.
- The 2026 K League 2 format sends 3rd-6th into promotion playoffs.
- A win here keeps Cheonan firmly in the playoff race.
Gimhae have conceded 33 goals in 15 matches, the most in K League 2.
- They have conceded in 14 of 15 matches this season.
- Away from home, they concede 1.75 goals per game.
Home record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss.
- The only home defeat was against Gimpo Citizen in March.
- Cheonan have scored in 6 of 8 home matches.
Gimhae were approved for K League 2 membership in August 2025.
- They have won only once in 15 matches this season.
- Their squad lacks experience at this level compared to established teams.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cheonan City or Draw

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Cheonan rarely lose at home (1 loss in 8) while Gimhae rarely win away (1 win in 8), making a home win or draw highly probable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Gimhae's tendency to concede early (0.8 first-half goals against) makes a first-half goal highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's solid home form and playoff motivation contrast sharply with Gimhae's league-worst defense and poor away record, giving the hosts a clear edge.
- Cheonan home record: 2W-5D-1L, goals 7:6 in 8 matches (last 15 matches)
- Gimhae away record: 1W-3D-4L, goals 7:14 in 8 matches (last 15 matches)
- Cheonan last 5 matches: 1W-2D-2L, goals 8:8; Gimhae last 5: 1W-1D-3L, goals 5:10
- Gimhae overall form: 1W-3D-11L, goals 12:33, worst defense in league
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCheonan CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan rarely lose at home while Gimhae rarely win away, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- Cheonan home losses: only 1 in 8 matches (last 15 matches)
- Gimhae away wins: only 1 in 8 matches (last 15 matches)
- Cheonan home draw rate: 62.5% (5 of 8 home matches)
- Gimhae away draw rate: 37.5% (3 of 8 away matches)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCheonan City or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gimhae's poor first-half record gives Cheonan a chance to lead at the break, though Cheonan's own first-half inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Cheonan led at halftime in 27% of matches (last 15 matches)
- Gimhae trailed at halftime in 60% of matches (last 15 matches)
- Cheonan first-half goal difference: -0.1 per game
- Gimhae first-half goal difference: -0.7 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCheonan CityEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's stronger second-half performances and Gimhae's tendency to fade after halftime point to a home second-half win.
- Cheonan second-half goal difference: +0.2 per game (last 15 matches)
- Gimhae second-half goal difference: -0.7 per game (last 15 matches)
- Cheonan won second half in 5 of last 15 matches (33%)
- Gimhae lost second half in 9 of last 15 matches (60%)
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCheonan CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Cheonan breakthrough is plausible given Gimhae's second-half collapses, but the specific sequence is low probability.
- Cheonan drew at halftime in 40% of matches (6 of 15)
- Cheonan won 4 of 15 matches overall (27%)
- Gimhae drew at halftime in 33% of matches (5 of 15)
- Gimhae lost 11 of 15 matches overall (73%)
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Cheonan CityEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, and Gimhae's leaky defense makes a high-scoring game likely.
- Cheonan last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (80%)
- Gimhae last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (80%)
- Gimhae concedes 2.2 goals per game on average (last 15 matches)
- Cheonan scores 1.3 goals per game on average (last 15 matches)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net but also concede regularly, supporting a both-teams-to-score outcome.
- Cheonan scored in 12 of last 15 matches (80%)
- Gimhae scored in 10 of last 15 matches (67%)
- Gimhae conceded in 14 of last 15 matches (93%)
- Cheonan conceded in 11 of last 15 matches (73%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's low clean sheet rate and Gimhae's ability to score on the road make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Cheonan kept only 3 clean sheets in last 15 matches (20%)
- Gimhae failed to score in only 5 of last 15 matches (33%)
- Cheonan conceded in 5 of 8 home matches (62.5%)
- Gimhae scored in 5 of 8 away matches (62.5%)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGimhae Fc to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's recent attacking uptick and Gimhae's defensive fragility suggest the hosts can score at least twice.
- Cheonan scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 matches (60%)
- Cheonan home goals per game: 0.88, but recent form shows improvement
- Gimhae conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 matches (80%)
- Gimhae away goals conceded per game: 1.75
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCheonan City over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae's tendency to concede early (0.8 first-half goals against) makes a first-half goal highly probable.
- Cheonan first-half goals: 0.4 per game; conceded 0.5 per game (last 15 matches)
- Gimhae first-half goals: 0.1 per game; conceded 0.8 per game (last 15 matches)
- Gimhae trailed at halftime in 60% of matches (last 15 matches)
- Cheonan led at halftime in 27% of matches (last 15 matches)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches see a surge in second-half scoring, with Gimhae's defense particularly vulnerable after the break.
- Cheonan second-half goals: 0.9 per game (1.3 total - 0.4 first half)
- Gimhae second-half goals conceded: 1.4 per game (2.2 total - 0.8 first half)
- Last 5 Cheonan matches: 4 had 2+ second-half goals
- Last 5 Gimhae matches: 4 had 2+ second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, the league average suggests a neutral expectation, but the attacking intent of both sides could push the total over.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Cheonan averages 0 corners per game (data missing)
- Gimhae averages 0 corners per game (data missing)
- League average corners in K League 2 typically around 8-9 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D1-1Cheonan CityvGimhae CityOct 22, 2022K3

W0-2Gimhae CityvCheonan CityAug 6, 2022K3

W1-5Gimhae CityvCheonan CityAug 14, 2021K3

W2-1Cheonan CityvGimhae CityApr 11, 2021K3

D1-1Gimhae CityvCheonan CityJul 18, 2020K3

Cheonan City unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

K League 2 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Cheonan City	15	4	7	4	19-18	19	LDWLD
17	Gimhae Fc K League 2 (Relegation)	15	1	3	11	12-33	6	LDLWL

13pt gap between teamsGimhae Fc in relegation zone

Recent Form

Cheonan City

L1-2Gyeongnam FCJul 5K L

D2-2Suwon City FCJun 7K L

W3-1Ansan GreenersMay 31K L

L2-3Suwon BluewingsMay 25K L

D0-0Paju CitizenMay 16K L

L0-1Busan I ParkMay 10K L

W1-0Asan MugunghwaMay 3K L

D1-1Seongnam FCApr 25K L

W2-1Daegu FCApr 18K L

D2-2CheongjuApr 12K L

W1-0Jeonnam DragonsMar 28K L

D0-0Seoul E-Land FCMar 21K L

D2-2HwaseongMar 15K L

L0-1Gimpo CitizenMar 8K L

D2-2Yongin CityMar 1K L

Gimhae Fc

L1-3Seoul E-Land FCJul 5K L

D1-1Seongnam FCJun 5K L

L1-2Gimpo CitizenMay 30K L

W1-0Jeonnam DragonsMay 23K L

L1-4Daegu FCMay 17K L

L1-2Gyeongnam FCMay 10K L

L0-1Busan I ParkMay 3K L

L1-4Yongin CityApr 26K L

D1-1CheongjuApr 18K L

D1-1Asan MugunghwaApr 12K L

L1-3Paju CitizenApr 5K L

L0-3Suwon BluewingsMar 21K L

L1-2Suwon City FCMar 14K L

L0-2HwaseongMar 8K L

L1-4Ansan GreenersFeb 28K L

Squad & Injuries

Cheonan City

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Gimhae Fc

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Cheonan City or Draw

Over 0.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Cheonan City

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cheonan City

Gimhae Fc

Squad & Injuries

Cheonan City

Gimhae Fc