Svenska CupenFull time

Predictions graded

Falu BS2Brommapojkarna1

HT 1–1Thu 27 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 22:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Brommapojkarna are clear favorites to beat Division 2 side Falu BS, but the odds (1.18 away win) leave no value.

The only marginal edge is BTTS Yes at 1.91 (+3 points), but it's too small to recommend. Avoid the heavily juiced match winner, double chance, and Over 2.5 goals markets.

Context

Falu BS lost 0-3 to Skiljebo on 1 August.
- Brommapojkarna won away at Djurgardens IF and Halmstad in May.
- Brommapojkarna average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in Allsvenskan; Falu BS average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded in Division 2.
Falu BS opened five entrances and urged supporters to arrive early for the match.
- The Swedish FA confirmed this is a round 2 knockout fixture with group-stage qualification on the line.
- No verified Brommapojkarna rotation news was found in match-week sources.
Away wins: Djurgardens IF (2-1), Halmstad (3-1), Orgryte IS (2-1).
- Away losses: IFK Goteborg (1-2), IF Elfsborg (0-2).
- Brommapojkarna have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Brommapojkarna

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

The two-division gap and Brommapojkarna's superior recent form against stronger opposition make them clear favorites, but the odds already price in a very high probability, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The two-division gap and Brommapojkarna's superior recent form against stronger opposition make them clear favorites, driven by the structural quality edge and motivation to advance in the cup.
- Brommapojkarna play in Allsvenskan, two divisions above Falu BS (Division 2).
- Brommapojkarna average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in Allsvenskan; Falu BS average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded in Division 2.
- Brommapojkarna have won 3 of their last 5 matches, including away wins at Djurgardens IF and Halmstad.
- Falu BS have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, including a 0-3 away loss to Skiljebo.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBrommapojkarnaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the class difference and Brommapojkarna's consistency, the probability of Falu BS winning is low, making the double chance for the away side a high-confidence selection.
- Brommapojkarna have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Falu BS have won only 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Brommapojkarna's Allsvenskan experience gives them a significant edge in a knockout cup tie.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or BrommapojkarnaEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Brommapojkarna are favorites, the -1.5 handicap is risky given Falu BS's home resilience and the unpredictable nature of cup ties, so this is a low-confidence value pick.
- Brommapojkarna have won by 2+ goals in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Falu BS have lost by 2+ goals in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- The division gap suggests a potential comfortable win, but cup upsets are common.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostBrommapojkarna -1.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brommapojkarna's superior quality may show early, but first-half outcomes are volatile, so this is a low-confidence pick.
- Brommapojkarna led at half-time in 27% of their matches.
- Falu BS trailed at half-time in 33% of their matches.
- Brommapojkarna's first-half goal difference is +0.0, while Falu BS's is -0.1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBrommapojkarnaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Brommapojkarna assert dominance early, they could lead at half-time and full-time, but the probability is low due to the unpredictability of cup matches.
- Brommapojkarna have led at half-time and won in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Falu BS have trailed at half-time and lost in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- The division gap supports a Brommapojkarna win, but HT/FT doubles are inherently risky.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBrommapojkarna/BrommapojkarnaEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages, and the cup context with a lower-division host pushing forward may lead to an open game, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Falu BS matches average 2.9 total goals (1.7 for, 1.2 against).
- Brommapojkarna matches average 2.9 total goals (1.4 for, 1.5 against).
- Falu BS have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Brommapojkarna have seen over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Falu BS's consistent scoring at home and Brommapojkarna's leaky defense suggest both teams are likely to find the net, especially with the home side motivated by the occasion.
- Falu BS have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Brommapojkarna have conceded in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Falu BS average 1.7 goals per match; Brommapojkarna concede 1.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages are modest, but the cup atmosphere and potential early pressure from Brommapojkarna could push the total over 1.5, though confidence is low.
- Falu BS average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Brommapojkarna average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.1, below the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and as the game opens up, the probability of over 1.5 second-half goals is decent.
- Falu BS score 1.2 goals per second half on average (1.7 total - 0.5 first half).
- Brommapojkarna score 0.8 goals per second half on average (1.4 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.0, above the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brommapojkarna's matches tend to have high corner counts, and Falu BS may defend deep, leading to more corners for the away side, but the lack of Falu BS corner data lowers confidence.
- Brommapojkarna average 4.9 corners per match and concede 6.1 opponent corners.
- Falu BS corner data is unavailable, but lower-division teams often concede many corners against stronger opposition.
- Brommapojkarna's matches average 11.0 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brommapojkarna's matches average over 9 shots on target, and Falu BS's attacking intent could add to the total, but missing Falu BS shot data makes this speculative.
- Brommapojkarna average 3.6 shots on target per match and concede 5.5 opponent shots on target.
- Falu BS shots data is unavailable, but they average 1.7 goals, suggesting decent shot output.
- Combined shots on target average for Brommapojkarna matches is 9.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The cup context and physical mismatch may lead to more fouls and cards, but the lack of Falu BS card data makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Brommapojkarna average 1.3 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 1.9 yellow cards.
- Falu BS card data is unavailable, but cup ties often feature more bookings due to intensity.
- Brommapojkarna's matches average 3.2 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 84.7% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Recent Form

Falu BS

W3-1FrankeAug 15DIV

L1-3SunnerstaAug 8DIV

L0-3SkiljeboAug 1DIV

W2-0LidingöJun 27DIV

W1-0GuteJun 18DIV

L0-1SunnerstaJun 13DIV

W2-1KorsnäsJun 6DIV

D1-1LidingöMay 31DIV

W2-0EnskedeMay 24DIV

L1-3BollstanäsMay 17DIV

W2-1FrankeMay 9DIV

D2-2HelgesMay 3DIV

W5-0Viggbyholms IKApr 25DIV

W2-1AngbyApr 18DIV

D1-1SkiljeboApr 12DIV

Brommapojkarna

W3-1Orgryte ISAug 16ALL

D2-2SiriusAug 10ALL

L1-2Malmo FFAug 2ALL

D1-1Hammarby FFJul 26ALL

L1-2IFK GoteborgJul 17ALL

L1-2SiriusJul 12ALL

D1-1GaisJul 6ALL

L0-2Kalmar FFJun 27FRI

D2-2Degerfors IFMay 31ALL

W2-1Djurgardens IFMay 22ALL

W1-0Kalmar FFMay 17ALL

L0-2IF ElfsborgMay 8ALL

W3-1HalmstadMay 4ALL

L1-2Vasteras SK FKApr 26ALL

W2-1Orgryte ISApr 22ALL

Squad & Injuries

Falu BS

2 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0

Brommapojkarna

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 1.5

Brommapojkarna

Draw or Brommapojkarna

Over 2.5

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Brommapojkarna

Draw or Brommapojkarna

Over 2.5

Recent Form

Falu BS

Brommapojkarna

Squad & Injuries

Falu BS

Brommapojkarna