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Predictions graded

Sirius2Brommapojkarna2

HT 2–2Mon 10 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–367%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 20–11On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Sirius' perfect home record and Brommapojkarna's leaky away defense make Over 2.5 goals the top pick, with an 80% probability and a +5.9-point edge.

The first-half goals market also offers value at +12.6 points, but handicap bets on Sirius are risky due to their tendency for narrow wins. Avoid short-priced match winner markets, as they provide no value.

Context

Sirius have won all 7 home league games in 2026, with a goal difference of +12.
- They average 3.0 goals scored per home match, hitting at least 2 goals in 6 of those 7 games.
- Only one home match saw them fail to score multiple goals (a 2-0 win over Hammarby).
Brommapojkarna have conceded in 7 of 8 away league matches, including 2+ goals in 5 of those games.
- They have kept only one away clean sheet (a 1-0 win at Kalmar).
- In their last 5 away matches, they conceded 2, 2, 2, 1, and 3 goals.
Sirius won 2-1 at Brommapojkarna on 12 July 2026, with all three goals coming in the first half.
- The previous two league meetings ended 4-2 and 3-0, averaging 4.0 goals per game.
- Both teams scored in two of those three matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius' perfect home record and dominant league form, combined with Brommapojkarna's poor recent away results and the recent H2H win, make a home victory highly likely.
- Sirius are unbeaten in 15 league matches (13W 2D) and top the table with 41 points.
- Sirius have won all 7 home games this season, scoring 21 goals and conceding 9.
- Brommapojkarna have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches and sit 12th with 17 points.
- Sirius won the reverse fixture 2-1 away less than a month ago.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSiriusEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sirius' unbeaten home record and overall form, the probability of them avoiding defeat is extremely high.
- Sirius have not lost at home this season (6W 1D).
- Brommapojkarna have only 3 away wins in 8 attempts.
- Sirius are unbeaten in 15 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSirius or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius' habit of starting strongly, particularly at home, makes them the clear favorite to be ahead at the break.
- Sirius have led at halftime in 11 of their last 15 matches (73%).
- At home, Sirius have led at halftime in 5 of 7 league games.
- Brommapojkarna have trailed at halftime in only 3 of 15 matches, but 2 of those were away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSiriusEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sirius' dominance at home and tendency to control matches from the start, a halftime lead and full-time win is a plausible outcome.
- Sirius have won both halves in 5 of their 7 home matches this season.
- Brommapojkarna have lost both halves in only 1 of their 8 away matches, but have a negative goal difference away.
- Sirius have led at halftime and won the match in 10 of their last 15 games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSirius/SiriusEstimated chance60%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius' high-scoring attack at home, Brommapojkarna's defensive vulnerabilities, and the consistent high-scoring H2H pattern strongly support over 2.5 goals.
- Sirius average 2.7 goals scored per match over the last 15, with 3.0 at home.
- Brommapojkarna concede 1.6 goals per match on average, and 1.75 away.
- The last three league H2H meetings all had over 2.5 goals, with 12 total goals.
- Sirius' last 5 home matches have seen 4, 5, 2, 5, and 2 goals (average 3.6).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While Sirius are strong defensively overall, they often concede at home, and Brommapojkarna have shown they can score on the road, making both teams scoring a reasonable expectation.
- Sirius have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Brommapojkarna have scored in 6 of their last 8 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 league H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius' prolific home scoring record and Brommapojkarna's leaky away defense make it very likely the hosts will score at least twice.
- Sirius average 3.0 goals per home match this season.
- Sirius have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their 7 home league games.
- Brommapojkarna concede 1.75 goals per away match on average.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSirius over 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brommapojkarna's consistent away scoring record and Sirius' occasional defensive lapses at home suggest the visitors are likely to find the net.
- Brommapojkarna have scored in 6 of their last 8 away matches.
- Sirius have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 7 home matches.
- Brommapojkarna average 1.5 goals per away game this season.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBrommapojkarna over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius' strong first-half performances, especially at home, combined with Brommapojkarna's occasional early defensive struggles, point to a high-scoring opening period.
- Sirius average 1.3 first-half goals per match over the last 15, and have led at halftime in 73% of those games.
- Brommapojkarna concede 0.7 first-half goals on average, but have conceded 2+ first-half goals in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the first half produced 2+ goals in 3 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their recent head-to-head matches have consistently seen high corner counts, supporting over 9.5 corners.
- Sirius average 5.6 corners per match, while Brommapojkarna average 4.4.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were 12, 8, 9, 11, and 10 (average 10.0).
- Sirius' home matches average 10.4 total corners (5.6 for, 4.8 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius' attacking volume and Brommapojkarna's tendency to allow shots on target, combined with historical H2H data, suggest a high total shots on target count.
- Sirius average 6.4 shots on target per match, with 6.7 at home.
- Brommapojkarna concede 5.1 shots on target per away match on average.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total shots on target were 10, 11, 7, 9, and 8 (average 9.0).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have disciplined records, and recent H2H matches have been low on cards, though the low confidence reflects the inherent unpredictability of bookings.
- Sirius average 1.2 yellow cards per match, Brommapojkarna average 1.5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were 1, 5, 2, 3, and 2 (average 2.6).
- Both teams have relatively low foul counts (Sirius 11.4, Brommapojkarna 9.1 per match).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W1-2IF BrommapojkarnavSiriusJul 12, 2026ALL

W2-4IF BrommapojkarnavSiriusAug 17, 2025ALL

L0-3SiriusvIF BrommapojkarnaApr 13, 2025ALL

W2-1SiriusvIF BrommapojkarnaJan 29, 2025FRI

W3-2SiriusvIF BrommapojkarnaSep 15, 2024ALL

4 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Sirius Qualifying	15	13	2	0	42-17	41	WWWWD
12	Brommapojkarna	15	4	5	6	20-24	17	LDLLD

24pt gap between teamsSirius leads the league

Recent Form

Sirius

W2-0HalmstadAug 3ALL

W4-1IFK GoteborgJul 26ALL

W3-1IF ElfsborgJul 19ALL

W2-1IF BrommapojkarnaJul 12ALL

D4-4Mjallby AIFJul 3ALL

D1-1Djurgardens IFJun 26FRI

W3-0AIK StockholmMay 30ALL

W2-1GaisMay 24ALL

W3-2Djurgardens IFMay 18ALL

W2-0Orgryte ISMay 11ALL

W3-2Kalmar FFMay 2ALL

D2-2BK HackenApr 27ALL

W3-2Malmo FFApr 23ALL

W4-1Vasteras SK FKApr 18ALL

W2-0Hammarby FFApr 13ALL

Brommapojkarna

L1-2Malmo FFAug 2ALL

D1-1Hammarby FFJul 26ALL

L1-2IFK GoteborgJul 17ALL

L1-2SiriusJul 12ALL

D1-1GaisJul 6ALL

L0-2Kalmar FFJun 27FRI

D2-2Degerfors IFMay 31ALL

W2-1Djurgardens IFMay 22ALL

W1-0Kalmar FFMay 17ALL

L0-2IF ElfsborgMay 8ALL

W3-1HalmstadMay 4ALL

L1-2Vasteras SK FKApr 26ALL

W2-1Orgryte ISApr 22ALL

L0-3Mjallby AIFApr 18ALL

D2-2AIK StockholmApr 13ALL

Squad & Injuries

Sirius

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Brommapojkarna

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Sirius2Brommapojkarna2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sirius

Sirius at half-time / Sirius at full-time

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Sirius

Sirius or Draw

Over 8.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sirius

Sirius, draw no bet

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sirius

Brommapojkarna

Squad & Injuries

Sirius

Brommapojkarna