ChinaATP BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Andrey Rublev #18Russia2Roman Safiullin #98Russia1

Sets 6-2 · 3-6 · 6-4Sat 3 Oct 2026, 05:54 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrey Rublev · 80 places

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 5 on 13 September 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #18
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Roman Safiullin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 36 in January 2024. His 2025 season ended after the US Open because of injury; he returned from qualifying to reach the Wimbledon fourth round in July 2026.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #36 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 03:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Safiullin arrives off a straight-sets win over the fourth seed and already owns a Wimbledon win over Rublev, while Rublev needed four match points and more than two and a half hours in his opener two days after the Hangzhou final.

Rublev's serve still makes him the narrow favourite, but 1.65 is not a price to take. The one worthwhile quote is 2.3 for the match to go to three sets.

Context

Safiullin and Rublev have met once at tour level, and Safiullin won it in five sets on grass after a fifth-set tiebreak that ran to 14-12. Because it is their only completed meeting, there is no tour-level evidence that Rublev has solved an opponent who matched him from the baseline for five sets. It also gives Safiullin recent, direct proof he can beat this specific player in a long match, which is unusual for a lower-ranked player against a former top-five opponent. The caveat is surface and format: that meeting was on grass over five sets, not on a Beijing hard court in a best-of-three.
- Safiullin won their only completed tour-level meeting 6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12) at Wimbledon on 29 June 2026.
- Safiullin leads the completed tour-level head-to-head against Rublev 1-0.
- The fifth set was decided by a tiebreak that finished 14-12.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:30 · Europe/BucharestPredictionistpredictionist.com · 2 Oct 2026
Safiullin arrives at this second-round match off a straight-sets win over the fourth seed on this court. It is his fourth career win over a top-10 opponent and his first at that level since 2023, ending a long gap and pointing to a level above his No. 84 ranking. Cobolli came in as the world No. 7 and the 2026 Roland-Garros runner-up, so the win is a genuine scalp rather than a ranking accident. The limitation is that it was one round-one match and Safiullin still had to save five break points, so it reads as a form signal rather than a repeating pattern.
- Safiullin beat fourth seed Flavio Cobolli 6-3 6-2 in the Beijing first round .
- Cobolli is ranked No. 7 and was the 2026 Roland-Garros runner-up.
- It is Safiullin's fourth career top-10 win and his first since beating Carlos Alcaraz at the 2023 Paris Masters.
- Safiullin saved all five break points he faced.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Rublev reached the Beijing second round through a three-set opener that ran past two and a half hours and required four match points, doing it two days after losing the Hangzhou final. His week already contains a full title run in Hangzhou plus a long first-round match here, a heavier load than a routine opening win, while his opponent advanced in straight sets. The effect is most likely to surface late, in a third set or in service games under fatigue. There is no reported injury or withdrawal and Rublev did close the match out, so this is a workload consideration rather than an availability doubt.
- Rublev beat Tallon Griekspoor 6-4 5-7 7-6(6) in the Beijing first round .
- The match lasted more than two and a half hours and Rublev converted his fourth match point.
- Rublev lost the Hangzhou final to Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-4 on 29 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Rublev has been in long, tight hard-court matches through August and September, including a three-setter that went past two and a half hours on 1 October.
Rublev's first sets in that eight-match window average 11.375 games, with 5.625 won and 5.75 lost, and his second sets average 9.75 games. Those are small samples, but they describe a player whose sets on this surface are not settled early, which is the kind of pattern that can push a best-of-three towards a decider. It does not guarantee a third set against an opponent whose own hard-court matches have finished faster.
- Rublev's eight hard-court best-of-three matches from 4 August to 1 October 2026 average 25.25 total games and 2.375 sets.
- Five of those eight matches contained at least one tiebreak.
- His first sets in the window average 11.375 games (5.625 won, 5.75 lost); his second sets average 9.75 games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Andrey Rublev

1.65fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 60.6%

−7.6ppshort

Rublev is the higher-ranked, heavier server and his hard-court point and game numbers are almost level with Safiullin's, which keeps him a narrow favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Rublev is the higher-ranked, heavier server and his hard-court point and game numbers are almost level with Safiullin's, which keeps him a narrow favourite.
- Hard-court last 10: Rublev 6-4, Safiullin 6-4
- Hard-court totals: Rublev 51.7% points and 52.7% games won; Safiullin 52.3% and 54.3%
- Rankings: Rublev 24, Safiullin 84
- Safiullin won their only tour meeting, five sets at Wimbledon on 29 June 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin has been winning by wider game margins and defends break points better, so a line that lets him lose by two games or fewer is well supported.
- Safiullin's six completed hard-court matches: 74 games won, 58 lost (+16, about +2.7 per match)
- Rublev's six-match game margin is +7
- Safiullin's hard-court break points saved is 72% against Rublev's 58%
- Rublev's hard-court matches average 129.8 minutes
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRoman Safiullin +2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have averaged above ten games, so this line sits below their combined norm.
- Rublev's hard-court first sets average 11.375 games
- Safiullin's hard-court first sets average 10.11 games
- Rublev's first sets produced three tiebreaks in eight matches
- Safiullin's first sets produced one tiebreak in nine matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's matches have been the shorter of the two, and his straight-sets wins have pulled the combined expectation just under the number.
- Safiullin's nine hard-court best-of-three matches average 21.2 total games
- Rublev's hard-court matches average 25.25 total games
- Safiullin's average match lasts 100.7 minutes against Rublev's 129.8
- Only one of Safiullin's nine hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's second sets have generally finished quickly, which tips the line slightly under.
- Safiullin's hard-court second sets average 9.0 games
- Only one tiebreak in his nine hard-court matches
- Rublev's second sets average 9.75 games
- Rublev's second-set loss average is 4.25 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Safiullin has closed matches in straight sets far more often than Rublev, so a deciding set is not the most likely outcome here.
- Rublev's hard-court best-of-three sets average is 2.375 (5 of 8 went to a decider)
- Safiullin's hard-court best-of-three sets average is 2.22 (2 of 9 went to a decider)
- Rublev's scorelines: 2-0 three times, 2-1 twice, 0-2 twice, 1-2 once
- Safiullin's scorelines: 2-0 five times, 2-1 once, 0-2 twice, 1-2 once
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong in second sets, and Rublev's overall edge leaves him a slight favourite in it.
- Rublev's hard-court best-of-three second sets: 5 wins, 3 losses
- Rublev's set-two game average is 5.5 won to 4.25 lost
- Safiullin's second sets: 7 wins, 2 losses
- Safiullin's set-two game average is 5.44 won to 3.56 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndrey RublevEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rublev's overall edge is small and his first-set record on this surface is level, so the opening set is only marginally his.
- Rublev's hard-court best-of-three first sets: 4 wins, 4 losses
- Safiullin's hard-court best-of-three first sets: 5 wins, 4 losses
- Rublev's set-one game average is 5.63 won to 5.75 lost
- Safiullin's set-one game average is 5.56 won to 4.56 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's matches rarely reach tiebreaks and his own service games have not produced the long holds that create them.
- Only one of Safiullin's nine hard-court best-of-three matches had a tiebreak
- Rublev's eight hard-court matches had a tiebreak five times
- Safiullin saves 72% of break points on hard courts
- Safiullin's average hard-court match lasts 100.7 minutes
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate sits just under the line, helped by Safiullin's low fault count.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is about 5.3 per match
- Rublev averages 3.1 and Safiullin 2.2 double faults
- Safiullin's hard-court first-serve rate is 63.7%
- Safiullin averages 2.2 double faults across his last 10 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Adding the two hard-court ace rates together puts the combined expectation just above the line.
- Rublev averages 10.7 aces per hard-court match
- Safiullin averages 6.6 aces per hard-court match
- Combined hard-court average is about 17.3 aces
- Safiullin averages 2.2 double faults per hard-court match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 16.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Andrey Rublev: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Andrey Rublev matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Andrey Rublev15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev1-2#78Luca Van Assche

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·78%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev1-2#78Luca Van Assche

Andrey Rublev to win

78%probability

Luca Van Assche won

Missed

23 Jul·ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev2-0#163Timofey Skatov

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·82%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev2-0#163Timofey Skatov

Andrey Rublev to win

82%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

19 Jul·ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#18Luciano Darderi

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·62%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#18Luciano Darderi

Andrey Rublev to win

62%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

18 Jul·ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-1#31Alejandro Tabilo

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·62%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-1#31Alejandro Tabilo

Andrey Rublev to win

62%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

17 Jul·ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#56Sebastian Baez

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·62%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#56Sebastian Baez

Andrey Rublev to win

62%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)Andrey Rublev#24vRoman Safiullin#84Jun 29, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Andrey Rublev

10W 5L

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)#55Tallon Griekspoor 7-5 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev 7-6(0) 6-1#86Kyrian Jacquet 6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1#87Hugo Gaston 6-3 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4#42Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-7(5) 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2 7-6(5)#106Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-4#49Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 6-1#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#250Juncheng Shang

3-6 6-3 6-4#43Luca Van Assche

6-1 6-1#204Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-3#19Luciano Darderi

6-4 4-6 6-4#31Alejandro Tabilo

6-1 6-2#51Sebastian Baez

Roman Safiullin

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#7Flavio Cobolli 7-5 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-3#104Bu Yunchaokete 5-7 6-3 6-4#50Quentin Halys 6-2 6-0#299Fajing Sun

6-4 6-4 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#284Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-3#41Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 6-4#142Stan Wawrinka

6-3 6-4#117Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 6-3 3-6 6-3#11Novak Djokovic

6-3 6-3 6-3#29Joao Fonseca

6-0 4-6 6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#24Andrey Rublev

4-6 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#286Jerome Kym

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAndrey RublevRublev

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Roman SafiullinSafiullinRS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.2%+4.2pp65.4%

1st Serve Won78.3%+4.4pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+4.5pp57.4%

Aces / Match9.3+2.07.3

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.0%+1.1pp36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted31.9%+0.9pp32.8%

Break Pts Saved62.3%+6.5pp68.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+0.8pp51.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.2%1st Serve In+4.2pp65.4%

78.3%1st Serve Won+4.4pp73.9%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+4.5pp57.4%

9.3Aces / Match+2.07.3

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.7

Return · 1–0

38.0%Return Pts Won+1.1pp36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

31.9%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp32.8%

62.3%Break Pts Saved+6.5pp68.8%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.9%

Andrey Rublev

Roman Safiullin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Andrey Rublev

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev

Roman Safiullin

Stat Battle