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Predictions graded

Andrey Rublev #16Russia2Luciano Darderi #18Italy0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Sun 19 Jul 2026, 12:13 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrey Rublev · 2 places

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Former world No. 5 and a 17-time ATP Tour singles champion. ATP sources show he finished inside the year-end Top 10 from 2020 through 2024 and arrives in Bastad ranked No. 16 after his 2021 peak.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Luciano Darderi

Italy

Clay is listed as Darderi’s favourite surface in his ATP bio. He reached a career-high No. 16 in May 2026 after his Rome run and is defending the Bastad title won in 2025.

Current ranking: #18
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Rublev's superior serve metrics and 1-0 H2H edge on clay make him the favorite, but Darderi's resilience and defending champion status suggest a close match.

Best betting angles include over 9.5 games in the first set and under 5.5 double faults, with Rublev to win offering marginal value.

Context

Darderi beat Vallejo 6-4 6-7(11) 6-3 in a 2h57 semifinal on 18 Jul.
- Rublev's semifinal win over Tabilo lasted 2h10, giving him a fresher recovery.
- Darderi also played a tight 7-6(9) 6-4 quarterfinal on 17 Jul, adding to his cumulative load.
- No current injury flags, but the short turnaround after a long match is a concrete fatigue risk.
Rublev's last 15 clay record: 9-4, with 62.2% sets won and 52.9% games won.
- He has saved 67.7% of break points on clay in this window, well above Darderi's 55.1%.
- Rublev's first-serve points won on clay is 71.5%, giving him a structural edge in pressure moments.
- He has won his last three matches in Bastad, including a dominant 6-1 6-2 quarterfinal.
Darderi's break-point save rate on clay in the last 15 window: 55.1% (38/69).
- Rublev converts 36.8% of break points on clay, and his return points won is 37.4%.
- In their only H2H, Darderi saved only 4 of 7 break points (57%).
- Darderi's second-serve points won on clay is 53.6%, which could be targeted by Rublev's return.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Rublev's superior serve/return structural edge on clay (higher break point save rate and return points won) and H2H win give him a moderate advantage.
- Rublev leads H2H 1-0 on clay (2025 Hamburg QF, 6-1 3-6 6-3).
- Rublev's last 15 clay record: 9-4 (69.2%), with 62.2% sets won and 52.9% games won.
- Darderi's last 15 clay record: 9-3 (75%), but his break point save rate on clay is only 55.1% vs Rublev's 67.7%.
- Rublev's first serve points won on clay: 71.5% vs Darderi's 70.8%, slight edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both players' recent clay matches consistently exceed 21.5 games, and their H2H was a three-setter with 25 games.
- Rublev's last 15 clay matches average 22.2 total games per match.
- Darderi's last 15 clay matches average 22.1 total games per match.
- Their only H2H had 25 games.
- Both players have high hold/break dynamics leading to extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Darderi's competitive clay record and close H2H suggest he will cover the +3.5 game handicap even in a loss.
- Darderi's last 15 clay matches: average game differential -0.3, but only one loss by more than 3.5 games.
- Rublev's last 15 clay wins: average margin 3.8 games, but Darderi's losses are typically close.
- H2H margin was 3 games.
- Darderi's return points won on clay: 38.1% vs Rublev's 37.4%, indicating he can keep games close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLuciano Darderi +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent clay matches for both players average over 9.5 games in the first set, indicating a competitive start.
- Rublev's last 15 clay matches: average set 1 games 9.8.
- Darderi's last 15 clay matches: average set 1 games 9.6.
- H2H set 1 had 7 games, but recent form suggests longer opening sets.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversions, leading to competitive starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Second sets in their recent clay matches average over 9.5 games, suggesting another close set.
- Rublev's last 15 clay matches: average set 2 games 9.7.
- Darderi's last 15 clay matches: average set 2 games 9.5.
- H2H set 2 had 9 games, but recent matches show higher totals.
- Both players tend to raise their level in second sets after competitive first sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Rublev's strong first-set record and H2H dominance in the opening set suggest he is likely to start well.
- Rublev's first set win conversion career: 87%.
- Darderi's first set win conversion career: 88%, but Rublev's recent clay first set performance is stronger.
- In their only H2H, Rublev won the first set 6-1.
- Rublev's last 5 matches on clay: won first set in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have low double fault rates on clay, making under 5.5 likely.
- Rublev averages 2.2 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Darderi averages 2.1 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Combined average: 4.3, well under 5.5.
- H2H had 6 double faults (Rublev 2, Darderi 4), but recent trends are lower.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 3-6 6-3Andrey Rublev#16vLuciano Darderi#18May 22, 2025

1 total meetings

Andrey Rublev

9W 6L

6-4 4-6 6-4#31Alejandro Tabilo

6-1 6-2#56Sebastian Baez

7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3#138Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#96Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-2#68Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 2-6 6-3#19Jakub Mensik

7-5 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#52Nuno Borges

6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)#58Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#33Ignacio Buse

6-2 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-4#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 6-4#59Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#64Vit Kopriva

6-2 7-6(2)#23Arthur Fils

Luciano Darderi

10W 5L

6-4 6-7(11) 6-3#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(9) 6-4#52Nuno Borges

6-4 6-4#60Daniel Altmaier

7-6(7) 7-5 6-2#47Ethan Quinn

7-6(1) 6-4#52Nuno Borges

7-5 6-3#51Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4 2-6 6-4#94Francisco Comesana

7-6(5) 6-2 6-3#125Sebastian Ofner

6-0 6-3#5Alex De Minaur

7-6(7) 7-5#51Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 7-6(4)#67Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-1 6-1#13Casper Ruud

7-6(5) 5-7 6-0#25Rafael Jodar

1-6 7-6(10) 6-0#2Alexander Zverev

3-6 6-3 6-2#24Tommy Paul

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAndrey RublevRublev

Last 15

5–1

9 core stats · 3 even

Luciano DarderiDarderiLD

Andrey Rublev carries the stronger recent form — Luciano Darderi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.3%+3.3pp59.0%

1st Serve Won71.8%+1.7pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won52.5%—53.2%

Aces / Match7.9+2.15.8

Double Faults / Match3.20.9 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.3%—36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted36.7%+1.7pp35.0%

Break Pts Saved68.6%+4.2pp64.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.3%—50.2%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.3%1st Serve In+3.3pp59.0%

71.8%1st Serve Won+1.7pp70.1%

52.5%2nd Serve Won—53.2%

7.9Aces / Match+2.15.8

3.2Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.3%Return Pts Won—36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

36.7%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp35.0%

68.6%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp64.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won—50.2%

Andrey Rublev

Luciano Darderi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andrey Rublev

Over 9.5

Under 5.5

Andrey Rublev

Over 9.5

Luciano Darderi +3.5

Over 21.5

Over 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev

Luciano Darderi

Stat Battle