Tallon Griekspoor #69Netherlands11 – 2Andrey Rublev #18Russia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Rublev's serve, return and games-won numbers on hard are all stronger, and he has won five of his last six completed matches.

• Rublev 10-5 over his last 15 matches; Griekspoor 6-9
• Hard-court first-serve points won: Rublev 78%, Griekspoor 75.2%
• Hard-court games won: Rublev 54%, Griekspoor 49.8%
• Rublev leads the head-to-head 3-1, though Griekspoor won the most recent meeting

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Griekspoor rarely loses by a wide game margin, so five games of cushion covers most outcomes.

• Griekspoor has won 49.8% of his hard-court games, keeping game counts close
• Rublev's four completed best-of-three hard matches gave margins of +6, +5, +6 and -5
• Griekspoor's last three completed hard matches were decided by five games or fewer

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

First sets have repeatedly gone beyond nine games for both players, with tiebreaks common.

• Griekspoor's set-one average total games is 10.7, Rublev's 11.5
• Three of Griekspoor's seven first sets were tiebreaks
• Three of Rublev's six first sets were tiebreaks

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

If Griekspoor stays competitive, as he did in Dubai, a four-game cushion is a reasonable place to be.

• Griekspoor's hard-court games-won share of 49.8% is close to Rublev's 54%
• Rublev has played four matches in five days coming into this event
• Griekspoor won their most recent meeting without needing a big game margin

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The two averages sit either side of the line and their matches regularly run long.

• Rublev's hard best-of-three average total games is 24.2
• Griekspoor's is 24.9
• Eight of their thirteen combined hard best-of-three matches featured a tiebreak

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Griekspoor has started slowly on this surface, and Rublev's serve gives him the better opening-set position.

• Rublev has won set one in three of six hard best-of-three matches
• Griekspoor has won set one in only two of seven
• Rublev has won 78% of first-serve points on hard against Griekspoor's 75.2%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' serve numbers and recent set patterns point to at least one tiebreak in this match.

• Four of Griekspoor's seven hard best-of-three matches contained a tiebreak
• Four of Rublev's six did as well
• Their most recent meeting included two tiebreak sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Their combined ace rate sits under the line, and Griekspoor in particular does not serve a high volume.

• Griekspoor's 7.3 aces per hard match is the lower of the two
• Rublev's hard-court average is 10.5
• The combined per-match figure is roughly 18

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Their recent double-fault rates just fall short of the combined line.

• Rublev averages 3.5 double faults per hard-court match
• Griekspoor averages 3.9
• Neither player is above four per match on this surface