PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Andrey Rublev #14Russia2Timofey Skatov #163Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Thu 23 Jul 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges6–186%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrey Rublev · 149 places

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Former world No. 5, reached in September 2021. Long-term surface splits point to hard courts as his best base, though he comes into Estoril off a clay title run in Bastad.

Current ranking: #14
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

Career-high No. 123 came in September 2023. Available long-term surface splits point to clay as his best fit, and he has already built same-week match reps in Estoril through qualifying and lucky-loser entry.

Current ranking: #163
Peak ranking: #123 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jul 2026, 06:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Rublev’s superior clay form, fresh off a Bastad title, and Skatov’s heavy recent workload make the Russian a heavy favorite.

The best betting angle is under 19.5 total games at 1.85, while Rublev 2-1 at 4.00 offers value for a potential dropped set. Avoid the -5.5 game handicap due to Skatov’s competitiveness.

Context

Skatov played a 2h28m three-set win over De Jong on July 21, a straight-set loss to Martinez on July 19, and a three-set qualifying win over Domingues on July 18.
- Rublev had a first-round bye and last played on July 19, giving him an extra day of rest.
- Skatov's last-15 clay matches average 128.7 minutes, but his recent three matches in four days exceed his normal workload.
Rublev's last four clay matches: wins over Darderi (6-4 6-3), Tabilo (6-4 4-6 6-4), Baez (6-1 6-2), and Pellegrino (7-6 6-7 6-3).
- In his last 13 clay matches, Rublev has a 76.9% win rate, 67.6% sets won, and 54.3% games won.
- Skatov's last 11 clay matches show a 54.5% win rate, 50% sets won, and 49.2% games won.
Rublev last 15 on clay: 73.2% first-serve points won, 37.1% return points won, 7.2 aces per match.
- Skatov last 11 on clay: 64.8% first-serve points won, 39.5% return points won, 1.5 aces per match.
- Rublev's break-point conversion rate on clay is 37.3%, while Skatov saves only 62.8% of break points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrey Rublev

1.08fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Rublev's dominant clay form and Skatov's heavy recent workload make the favorite a near-certainty, though the odds offer no value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrey Rublev

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Rublev's dominant clay serve and return numbers, combined with his high first-set conversion rate, make him a clear favorite to take the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrey Rublev

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

−9.0ppshort

Rublev's superior clay-court metrics and recent form suggest he will also control the second set against a lower-ranked opponent.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrey Rublev 2-0

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

Rublev's straight-set wins in 3 of his last 4 clay matches and Skatov's struggles against top-100 opponents point to a 2-0 victory.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrey Rublev 2-0

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Rublev's dominant clay form and Skatov's fatigue suggest a straight-set win, but the odds already price this heavily.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Rublev's superior clay-court level, recent title run, and massive ranking gap make him a strong favorite; Skatov's heavy workload this week further tilts the match.
- Rublev last 15 on clay: 10-3 record, 67.6% sets won, 54.3% games won, 51.7% total points won.
- Skatov last 15 on clay: 6-5 record, 50% sets won, 49.2% games won, 49.5% total points won.
- Rublev career clay win% 64.2%, Skatov 54.3%; Rublev ranking #14 vs Skatov #163.
- Rublev recent form: 4-match clay win streak (Bastad title), including wins over Darderi, Tabilo, Baez.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance82%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's consistent game dominance on clay and Skatov's lower win percentage support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Rublev last 15 clay games won% 54.3%, Skatov 49.2%.
- Rublev average games won per clay match: 15.5; Skatov: 11.6.
- Rublev won by 5+ games in 3 of last 4 clay wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrey Rublev -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's ability to win efficiently on clay (multiple sub-20 game matches) and Skatov's potential fatigue point to a relatively short match under 21.5 games.
- Rublev last 15 clay matches average 127.7 minutes; Skatov clay average 128.7 minutes.
- Rublev last 4 clay wins: 12, 16, 12, 19 games; Skatov last 3 clay: 13, 5, 18 games.
- Rublev clay games won% 54.3%, Skatov 49.2%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Rublev is favored, Skatov's decent first-serve numbers could keep the first set competitive enough to exceed 8.5 games, though confidence is low given Rublev's dominance.
- Rublev last 5 clay first sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6, 6-3 (avg 9.2 games).
- Skatov last 5 clay first sets: 1-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 (avg 8.6 games).
- Both players have first-serve points won above 64% on clay, suggesting holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Rublev's strong serving and return numbers on clay, combined with his high first-set conversion rate, make him a clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Rublev career first-set win conversion 87%, Skatov 83%.
- Rublev last 15 clay: 73.2% first-serve points won, 37.1% return points won; Skatov clay: 64.8% first-serve points won, 39.5% return points won.
- Rublev won first set in 4 of last 5 clay matches; Skatov lost first set in 2 of last 3 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Rublev's dominant recent clay form and high first-set conversion rate suggest he can close in straight sets against a fatigued lower-ranked opponent.
- Rublev last 15 clay: 67.6% sets won, 54.3% games won; Skatov clay: 50% sets won, 49.2% games won.
- Rublev first-set win conversion career 87%, Skatov 83%.
- Skatov last 3 clay matches: 2 three-setters, 1 straight-set loss; Rublev last 4 clay: 3 straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAndrey Rublev 2-0Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's superior level and Skatov's fatigue make a straight-set victory likely, aligning with Under 2.5 sets.
- Rublev last 15 clay: 67.6% sets won, 10-3 record; Skatov clay: 50% sets won, 6-5 record.
- Rublev straight-set wins in 3 of last 4 clay matches; Skatov went to three sets in 2 of last 3 clay wins.
- Skatov physical load: 3 matches in 4 days, including a 2h28m three-setter.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average low double fault numbers on clay, making Under 5.5 likely in a match expected to be under 2.5 sets.
- Rublev last 15 clay double faults per match: 2.1; Skatov clay: 1.7.
- Combined average double faults per clay match: 3.8.
- Rublev career double faults per match: 2.5; Skatov: 2.2.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's strong serving on clay and the expected straight-set outcome reduce the chance of a tiebreak, though Skatov's occasional tight sets add some uncertainty.
- Rublev career tiebreak win% 52%, Skatov 46%.
- Rublev last 15 clay: 2 tiebreaks in 13 matches; Skatov last 11 clay: 3 tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- Rublev first-serve points won 73.2% on clay, reducing tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's high ace count alone could push the total over 8.5, but Skatov's low ace numbers and potential for a short match reduce confidence.
- Rublev last 15 clay aces per match: 7.2; Skatov clay: 1.5.
- Rublev career aces: 5274 in 837 matches (6.3 per match); Skatov: 616 in 470 (1.3 per match).
- Combined average aces per match on clay: 8.7.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Andrey Rublev

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#21Luciano Darderi

6-4 4-6 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

6-1 6-2#56Sebastian Baez

7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3#138Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#94Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-2#70Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 2-6 6-3#18Jakub Mensik

7-5 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#48Nuno Borges

6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)#69Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#35Ignacio Buse

6-2 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#130Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-4#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 6-4#58Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#68Vit Kopriva

Timofey Skatov

8W 7L

1-6 6-4 6-3#98Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-2#159Pedro Martinez Portero

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#601Joao Domingues

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#37Raphael Collignon

6-2 6-4#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-4#1033Anirudh Chandrasekar

7-5 6-3#434Mika Petkovic

7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#134Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-1#197Elias Ymer

6-3 7-6(4)#263Alex Barrena

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-6(8)#887James Watt

6-3 6-3#192Taro Daniel

6-4 6-2#123Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-4#173Marco Cecchinato

6-7(2) 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#236Chun Hsin Tseng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAndrey RublevRublev

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Timofey SkatovSkatovTS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.2%+2.5pp64.7%

1st Serve Won73.3%+5.3pp68.0%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+1.2pp52.6%

Aces / Match8.1+6.21.9

Double Faults / Match3.10.9 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+2.1pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.1%+1.9pp39.0%

Break Pts Saved68.3%+1.9pp66.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.8%—50.1%

Serve · 3–2

62.2%1st Serve In+2.5pp64.7%

73.3%1st Serve Won+5.3pp68.0%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp52.6%

8.1Aces / Match+6.21.9

3.1Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+2.1pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

37.1%Break Pts Converted+1.9pp39.0%

68.3%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp66.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.8%Total Pts Won—50.1%

Andrey Rublev #14Russia2Timofey Skatov #163Kazakhstan0

Player Profiles

Andrey Rublev

Timofey Skatov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 19.5

Andrey Rublev 2-1

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev 2-0

Andrey Rublev 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Andrey Rublev (-5.5) @ 1.90

Timofey Skatov 2-1 @ 13.00

Andrey Rublev

Timofey Skatov

Stat Battle