SwedenATP BastadFinished

Predictions graded

Andrey Rublev #16Russia2Sebastian Baez #56Argentina0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Fri 17 Jul 2026, 13:29 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrey Rublev · 40 places

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Former world No. 5, reached on 13 September 2021; his current No. 16 mark in Bastad keeps him below that peak but still inside the top 20. Public profile material says he does not state a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

Career-high No. 18 came on 24 June 2024; his current No. 56 mark leaves him below that peak. Most of his strongest ATP and Challenger results are clay-based, and he was a Bastad finalist in 2022.

Current ranking: #56
Peak ranking: #18 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Jul 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Rublev is favored after a tough win, but Baez’s efficient path and 2022 Bastad win over Rublev give him confidence.

Betting value lies in Baez +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, as both players’ return games should lead to a competitive match. Avoid Rublev -4.5 and straight-set bets due to his narrow margins and Baez’s consistency.

Context

Rublev beat Pellegrino 7-6(3), 6-7(7), 6-3 in 2h33 on 16 July.
- He admitted recent weeks brought little tennis and poor results.
- His last five matches include a five-set Wimbledon loss and a straight-set defeat to Hurkacz.
Baez defeated De Jong 6-4, 6-2 in 69 minutes on 16 July.
- He also won his opener 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 against Dahlin on 14 July.
- Baez reached the 2022 Bastad final, showing comfort at this venue.
Baez won 6-2, 6-4 on clay at Bastad in July 2022.
- Baez won 69% of first-serve points and broke serve 50% of the time in that match.
- Rublev's current ranking is No. 16, while Baez is No. 56.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Rublev's superior recent clay form against stronger opponents and his higher ranking give him a moderate edge, despite Baez's 2022 H2H win and Bastad comfort.
- Rublev has a 69.2% clay win rate in last 15 (9-4) vs Baez 64.3% (9-5), with stronger quality-of-opposition wins (Mensik, Borges, Davidovich Fokina).
- Rublev's last 5 clay matches: 4-1, including wins over top-60 opponents; Baez's last 5 clay: 3-2 with losses to Burruchaga (ret.) and Michelsen.
- Career clay win%: Rublev 145-? (approx 63%) vs Baez 244-? (approx 63%), but Rublev has higher peak ranking and better top-20 record.
- H2H: Baez won their only meeting 6-2 6-4 on clay in 2022, but Rublev's current form and ranking edge suggest a reversal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
With both players strong on return and capable of breaking serve, a competitive match likely exceeds 21.5 games.
- Rublev's last 15 clay matches average 22.2 games per match; Baez's average 21.7.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Rublev 38.8%, Baez 43.4% in last 15), leading to extended sets.
- Rublev's last match went 19-16 in games; Baez's last two went 12-6 and 16-11, but against weaker opponents.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Baez's strong return game and clay consistency make it likely he stays within 3.5 games of Rublev, even in a loss.
- Baez's clay return points won in last 15: 43.1%, indicating he can keep games close.
- Rublev's average games won margin in last 15 clay wins is +3.2, but against top-100 opponents it's tighter.
- Baez has covered +3.5 in 12 of his last 15 matches overall.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSebastian Baez +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and breaking, pushing it over 9.5 games.
- Rublev's first-set average games on clay in last 15: 10.2; Baez's: 9.8.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates above 38%, suggesting breaks and extended games.
- In their H2H, the first set had 8 games, but current form points to a tighter opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Rublev's high first-set win conversion and strong serving on clay make him likely to take the opener, though Baez's return game keeps it competitive.
- Rublev's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, and he has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches.
- Baez's first-set win conversion is 86% career, but he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Rublev's first-serve points won on clay in last 15: 70.5%, giving him a strong start advantage.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Rublev's ace count alone often pushes the total over 7.5, and Baez contributes occasionally, making this a likely over.
- Rublev averages 6.2 aces per match on clay in last 15; Baez averages 1.6.
- Combined average aces: 7.8, with Rublev capable of 10+ aces in a match.
- Baez's low ace count is offset by Rublev's serving power on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have manageable double-fault rates on clay, making it likely the total stays under 5.5.
- Rublev averages 2.3 double faults per match on clay in last 15; Baez averages 2.1.
- Combined average: 4.4, with both players showing decent second-serve reliability.
- In their H2H, total double faults were 4 (Rublev 3, Baez 1).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-4Andrey Rublev#16vSebastian Baez#56Jul 16, 2022

1 total meetings

Andrey Rublev

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3#138Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#96Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-2#68Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 2-6 6-3#19Jakub Mensik

7-5 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#52Nuno Borges

6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)#58Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#33Ignacio Buse

6-2 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-4#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 6-4#59Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#64Vit Kopriva

6-2 7-6(2)#23Arthur Fils

3-6 6-2 6-2#69Hamad Medjedovic

6-4 6-3#53Tomas Machac

Sebastian Baez

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#73Jesper De Jong

4-6 6-4 6-1#883Max Dahlin

6-1 7-6(4) 4-6 2-6 7-5#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#101Alex Molcan

6-2 7-6(2)#217Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 7-5#310Maxim Mrva

6-2 6-4#164Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

2-6 7-5 6-2 2-0 ret.#67Roman Andres Burruchaga

7-5 6-3#46Alex Michelsen

5-7 7-5 7-5#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-2#165Roberto Carballes Baena

6-1 6-2#11Alexander Bublik

6-3 7-6(8)#76Jenson Brooksby

7-5 6-1#128Vilius Gaubas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAndrey RublevRublev

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Sebastian BaezBaezSB

Sebastian Baez carries the stronger recent form — Andrey Rublev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.2%+7.7pp69.9%

1st Serve Won71.0%+3.7pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won52.3%+1.7pp50.6%

Aces / Match7.1+5.41.7

Double Faults / Match3.31.2 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.9%+5.8pp41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.8%+4.6pp43.4%

Break Pts Saved69.2%+7.0pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+1.4pp51.6%

Serve · 3–2

62.2%1st Serve In+7.7pp69.9%

71.0%1st Serve Won+3.7pp67.3%

52.3%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp50.6%

7.1Aces / Match+5.41.7

3.3Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

35.9%Return Pts Won+5.8pp41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

38.8%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp43.4%

69.2%Break Pts Saved+7.0pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+1.4pp51.6%

Andrey Rublev #16Russia2Sebastian Baez #56Argentina0

Player Profiles

Andrey Rublev

Sebastian Baez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Sebastian Baez +3.5

Over 7.5

Under 5.5

Over 9.5

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev

Over 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Andrey Rublev -4.5 @ 3.00

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev

Sebastian Baez

Stat Battle