ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia2Alexandr Binda #552Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Fri 18 Sept 2026, 11:45 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 392 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #552
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic is the rightful favorite with a superior serve and ranking edge, but his 1.10 price is a clear negative-value trap given a 62% model win probability.

The best angles are Binda +5.75 as a live underdog and Over 21.5 games, with Binda's three-set resilience and Tomic's second-serve vulnerability keeping this closer than the odds suggest.

Context

Tomic, 33, is a former top-20 player now ranked 185 and playing mostly Challenger events. Binda, 25, is ranked 548 and has spent 2026 on the lower-level hard-court circuit.
Tomic's last-15 hard-court record is 10-5 with 54.1% of games won, while Binda is 9-4 on hard with 54.7% of games won. The overall numbers are close, but Tomic's recent wins came against higher-ranked opponents on average, including a straight-sets win over Karen Khachanov in July.
- Tomic last 15 matches: 10-5 overall, all on hard court, 54.1% games won.
- Binda last 15 matches: 9-6 overall, 9-4 on hard court, 54.7% games won on hard.
- Tomic's last-15 opponents include Khachanov (No. 26) and Norrie (No. 39); Binda's recent wins came mostly against players ranked outside the top 300.
Tomic is 196cm and has a career first-serve percentage of 63%, while Binda is 180cm and relies more on baseline consistency.
Tomic's first-serve points won (74.1%) and break points saved (59.8%) are both stronger than Binda's (68.5% and 55.4%). Binda's 3.3 double faults per match also stands out against Tomic's 2.1, giving Tomic a small but repeatable edge in service games.
- Tomic last 15: 74.1% first-serve points won, 59.8% break points saved, 2.1 double faults per match.
- Binda last 15: 68.5% first-serve points won, 55.4% break points saved, 3.3 double faults per match.
- Both players have similar first-serve in percentages (62.9% for Tomic, 62.0% for Binda).
Both players are in the same half of the Guangzhou Challenger draw and played their previous rounds on 17 September.
Binda's three matches lasted 114.6 minutes on average over his last 15, compared with 98.8 for Tomic. His most recent win over Fajing Sun went three sets and lasted over two hours, while Tomic's two wins this week were both straight sets. If the quarter-final goes long, Tomic may have more left in the tank.
- Binda has played three matches in Guangzhou (13, 14, 15 September) plus a three-setter on 17 September.
- Tomic has played two matches in Guangzhou (15 and 17 September), both straight sets.
- Binda's average match duration over his last 15 is 114.6 minutes; Tomic's is 98.8 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior serve structure and higher-quality recent opposition make him the rightful favorite, but the price offers no value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.22fair 1.19

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior first-serve points won and clean opening-set starts on this court make the quoted price marginally fair-to-positive, with Binda's double-fault leakage supplying break chances.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bernard Tomic

1.22fair 1.19

BetBugs 56% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's hold-heavy profile and Binda's 55.4% break-point save rate on hard courts give Tomic a slight edge over the quoted set-2 price.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Tomic's superior serve structure (74.1% first-serve points won, 6.9 aces/match) and higher-quality recent opposition on the same hard surface give him the edge, though Binda's 9-4 hard record keeps this from being high confidence.
- Tomic last-15 hard-court record 10-5 (66.7%), 23/36 sets won (63.9%), 185/342 games (54.1%) — all 15 matches tracked on Hard
- Tomic serve structure: 74.1% first-serve points won, 6.9 aces/match, 59.8% break points saved vs Binda 68.5% first-serve points won and 55.4% BP saved
- Binda last-15 hard record 9-4 (69.2%) but against weaker opposition (opponent rankings 324, 891, 828, 897, 880, null in recent wins)
- Ranking gap: Tomic 185 vs Binda 548; Tomic career hard wins 329 vs Binda 144
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's tendency toward long three-set matches and both players' middling games-won rates point to a drawn-out contest, though Tomic's efficient recent wins cap confidence.
- Binda last-15 average match duration 114.6 minutes, with three recent three-setters (Sep 14, Sep 17)
- Tomic last-15 average duration 98.8 minutes; 4 of his last 15 went three sets
- Binda recent form includes 4-6 7-6(4) 6-4 and 6-4 4-6 6-4 grind wins in Guangzhou
- Both players' games-won rates near 53-54% indicate competitive, extended sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Tomic's stronger first-strike serve numbers and clean recent set starts on this court favor him taking the opener, with Binda's higher double-fault rate offering break chances.
- Tomic career first-set win conversion 85% vs Binda 89% (career baseline)
- Tomic last-15: 74.1% first-serve points won, 6.9 aces/match, 62.9% first-serve in
- Binda last-15 hard: 70.4% first-serve points won, 3.5 double faults/match
- Tomic opened with 6-3 6-2 and 6-0 6-2 wins in his last two Guangzhou matches (Sep 15-17)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Tomic's serve-hold edge and straight-set pattern this week favor him in set two, though Binda's resilience lowers confidence.
- Tomic last-15: 74.1% first-serve points won, 59.8% break points saved
- Binda last-15 hard: 70.4% first-serve points won, 61.3% BP saved
- Tomic's recent Guangzhou wins were straight-set (6-3 6-2, 6-0 6-2)
- Binda has dropped second sets in recent three-setters
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's recent pattern of extended matches and Tomic's own three-set frequency make a deciding set plausible, though Tomic's straight-set wins in Guangzhou lower the edge.
- Binda played three-setters in 3 of his last 5 matches (Sep 13-17)
- Binda last-15 sets won 20/34 (58.8%), indicating frequent split sets
- Tomic last-15: 23/36 sets won (63.9%), 4 three-setters in last 15
- No H2H history to suggest a lopsided matchup
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent ace rates combine above the line, with Tomic's height and 6.9 aces/match being the strongest serve-profile signal.
- Tomic last-15: 6.9 aces/match (103 in 15), 62.9% first-serve in
- Binda last-15 hard: 5.8 aces/match (76 in 13)
- Combined recent ace rate ~12.7 per match across both players
- Tomic 196cm height supports serve dominance
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's elevated double-fault rate combined with Tomic's modest rate pushes the combined total near the line, with Binda the primary driver.
- Binda last-15: 3.3 double faults/match (50 in 15), 3.5/match on hard
- Tomic last-15: 2.1 double faults/match (31 in 15)
- Combined recent double-fault rate ~5.4 per match
- Binda's 62% first-serve in leaves second serves exposed
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong hold profiles on both sides and recent tiebreak frequency in both players' form make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Binda's recent matches include tiebreaks on Sep 13 (7-6(7)) and Sep 17 (7-6(4))
- Tomic's recent form includes a 7-6(3) set on Sep 3 and 7-6(5)/7-6(3) sets in July
- Both players' first-serve points won (74.1% Tomic, 70.4% Binda on hard) limit breaks
- Binda career tiebreak win rate 48%, Tomic 57%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance54%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Tomic is a rightful favorite but the 1.10 price is far shorter than his 62% model estimate, making it a poor-value trap.

Prediction history

Bernard Tomic has been reliable when projected to win, fulfilling 5 of 7 recent match-winner projections

Bernard Tomic fulfilled 5 of 7 recent match-winner projections, with an average estimated probability of 67.4% and 4.7 expected fulfilled predictions. Both missed projections were subject losses, and the current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 58% to 78%. The missed projections averaged 70% while matched projections averaged 66.4%, indicating that higher-probability projections were not more reliable in this recent sample.

Recent evidence for Bernard Tomic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Cameron Norrie won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

72%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Conor Gannon won

Missed

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#351Jake Delaney 6-0 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 4-6 6-2#230Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#319Akira Santillan

7-5 7-6(3)#387Kasidit Samrej

6-4 3-6 6-4#411Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#138Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#341Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#495Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#214Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#140Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#451Spencer Johnson

Alexandr Binda

9W 6L

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#324Fajing Sun 6-3 6-4#891Aoran Wang 6-4 4-6 6-4#828Kousuke Ogura 7-6(7) 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

7-6(4) 6-2#350Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-1—Cheng-Peng Hsieh

6-3 6-2#431Khumoun Sultanov

7-5 7-5#337Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-2#820Mert Naci Turker

6-4 6-2#654Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-4—S Mert Ozdemir

7-5 6-4#365Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 5-7 6-2#832Adrian Andreev

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#579Matyas Fuele

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

5–1

9 core stats · 3 even

Alexandr BindaBindaAB

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Alexandr Binda's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.9%+0.9pp62.0%

1st Serve Won74.1%+5.6pp68.5%

2nd Serve Won48.6%—48.1%

Aces / Match6.9+1.45.5

Double Faults / Match2.11.2 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.5%+3.0pp41.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted38.9%—39.1%

Break Pts Saved59.8%+4.4pp55.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—51.1%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

62.9%1st Serve In+0.9pp62.0%

74.1%1st Serve Won+5.6pp68.5%

48.6%2nd Serve Won—48.1%

6.9Aces / Match+1.45.5

2.1Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won+3.0pp41.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

38.9%Break Pts Converted—39.1%

59.8%Break Pts Saved+4.4pp55.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—51.1%

Bernard Tomic

Alexandr Binda

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alexandr Binda

Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Bernard Tomic @ 1.10

Bernard Tomic

Alexandr Binda

Stat Battle