Bernard Tomic #192Australia11 – 2Conor Gannon #1085Ireland2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing decent hold rates and recent matches averaging over 21.5 games, the total is likely to exceed this line.

• Tomic's last 15 matches average 22.3 total games per match.
• Gannon's last 15 matches average 21.7 total games per match.
• Both players have break-point save rates around 62%, indicating they can hold serve under pressure, leading to longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve well, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Tomic's first sets in his last 15 matches average 9.8 games.
• Gannon's first sets in his last 15 matches average 9.3 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 70%, making breaks less frequent early in matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is expected to be tight, with both players capable of holding serve, leading to over 9.5 games.

• Tomic's second sets in his last 15 matches average 9.6 games.
• Gannon's second sets in his last 15 matches average 9.4 games.
• Both players have similar second-serve win rates (50%), which could lead to extended games if breaks are exchanged.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Tomic's strong first-set record and experience against better opponents make him likely to take the opening set.

• Tomic has an 85% career first-set win conversion rate, indicating he starts matches strongly.
• In his last 15 matches, Tomic won the first set in 9 of 15 matches, including against top-200 opponents.
• Gannon's first-set win rate in his last 15 matches is 8/15, but against weaker opposition.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tomic's high ace rate combined with Gannon's moderate ace output on a grass surface should push the total aces over 8.5.

• Tomic's career ace rate is 9.1%, averaging about 6.5 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
• Gannon's ace rate is 4.9%, averaging about 3.5 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
• On grass, ace rates typically increase, and Tomic's 196cm height gives him a serving advantage.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With strong serving stats and a grass surface, at least one set is likely to go to a tiebreak.

• Tomic has a 57% career tiebreak win rate and has played tiebreaks in 5 of his last 15 matches.
• Gannon has a 41% career tiebreak win rate and has played tiebreaks in 4 of his last 15 matches.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 70%, which often leads to tiebreaks on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and the grass surface may increase errors, making over 5.5 double faults likely.

• Tomic's double-fault rate is 2.4%, averaging about 2.5 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
• Gannon's double-fault rate is 3.3%, averaging about 3.0 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
• Grass courts can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce and faster conditions.