MexicoATP Los CabosFinished

Predictions graded

Miguel Tobon #473Colombia1Bernard Tomic #170Australia2

Sets 7-5 · 4-6 · 6-7Sun 26 Jul 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 303 places

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

ATP lists Tobon in the Los Cabos qualifying field, and the official qualifying sheet released on July 24, 2026 shows him as the last direct acceptance. Reliable public bio detail in the exact searches was limited, so structured form data is the main player context.

Current ranking: #473
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Former world No. 17. Australian Open reporting in January 2026 linked his earlier ranking slide to hip, abdominal and wrist injuries, but the current signal is a rebuild: he won the Lincoln Challenger on July 20, 2026 and pushed back retirement talk.

Current ranking: #170
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Bernard Tomic's hard-court form and vast experience give him a strong edge over Miguel Tobon, who has struggled on the surface.

Tomic is likely to win in straight sets, with value in the set betting market, and the match should feature over 21.5 games and over 7.5 aces.

Context

Tomic's last match was a three-set final on July 20, lasting 2 hours and 41 minutes.
- He retired from a match on July 22 after just four games, raising a fresh physical concern.
- The turnaround into this July 25 qualifying match is only five days, with travel from Lincoln to Los Cabos.
Tobon's last15 hard-court record is 0-2, with only 2 matches tracked.
- He lost those matches to opponents ranked #608 and #371, both in three sets.
- His career hard-court win total is just 13, compared to 36 on clay.
Tomic's last15 hard-court record is 5-3, with wins over players ranked #150, #225, #240, #524, and #741.
- He saved 64.9% of break points on hard courts in this window.
- His first-serve points won on hard is 71.6%, and he averages only 1.5 double faults per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bernard Tomic

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's strong first-set record on hard courts and Tobon's recent struggles in early sets make Tomic the likely set 1 winner.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bernard Tomic 2-0

2.05fair 1.82

BetBugs 45% · Market 48.8%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior hard-court serve and return stats, combined with Tobon's poor hard-court record, make a straight-sets win more likely than the odds imply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Tomic's superior hard-court form and experience, combined with Tobon's poor recent hard-court results and thin surface sample, give Tomic a strong edge.
- Tomic's last15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%) vs Tobon's 6-9 (40%), with Tomic winning 52.4% of games vs 48.5%.
- On hard courts, Tomic is 5-3 (62.5%) in last15, while Tobon is 0-2 (0%) with only 2 matches tracked, losing both.
- Tomic's career hard-court win percentage is 321-? (56% overall), vastly more experienced than Tobon's 13 hard-court wins.
- Tomic's recent form includes a Challenger title run on hard, beating top-250 opponents, while Tobon lost to #608 and #371 in his last two hard matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Tobon's tendency for long matches and Tomic's recent tight contests, a total over 21.5 games is likely even if Tomic wins in straight sets.
- Tobon's last15 hard matches averaged 33.5 games per match (67 games in 2 matches), both going over 21.5.
- Tomic's last15 hard matches averaged 23.9 games, with 5 of 8 going over 21.5.
- Both players have competitive recent matches: Tomic's last three hard wins were 2-1, 2-0, 2-0 but with tiebreaks; Tobon's losses were tight three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tomic's high first-set win rate on hard courts and Tobon's struggles in early sets against lower-ranked opponents suggest Tomic will take the opener.
- Tomic's first-set win conversion career is 85%, and in last15 on hard he won 5 of 8 first sets.
- Tobon's first-set win conversion career is 81%, but in last15 overall he won only 6 of 15 first sets.
- Tomic's recent hard-court matches show strong starts: won first set in 4 of last 5 hard matches (excluding retirement).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have consistent ace counts that sum to around 8 per match, making over 7.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Tomic averages 4.1 aces per match overall last15, and 3.8 on hard; Tobon averages 3.7 overall and 5.0 on hard (small sample).
- Combined average aces per match: Tomic 4.1 + Tobon 3.7 = 7.8, slightly above 7.5.
- In Tomic's last 5 hard matches, he hit 4, 5, 3, 4, 2 aces; Tobon hit 5 and 5 in his two hard matches.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's excellent double-fault avoidance and Tobon's moderate rate suggest the total will stay under 5.5.
- Tomic averages only 1.5 double faults per match overall last15, and 1.5 on hard.
- Tobon averages 3.3 double faults per match overall, but only 2.0 on hard (small sample).
- Combined average: 1.5 + 3.3 = 4.8, under 5.5; Tomic's low double-fault rate drags the total down.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%

Miguel Tobon

6W 9L

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(2)#608Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#371Tiago Pereira

6-2 6-2#108Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 4-6 6-4#260Martin Krumich

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#653Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-2#752Yanaki Milev

6-4 6-2#578Alexander Vasilev

6-3 ret.#658Peter Fajta

6-2 6-4#325Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 6-2#415Mika Brunold

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1#283Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#340Andrea Collarini

6-0 6-3—Segundo Goity Zapico

6-1 6-3#295Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-2 2-6 6-1#332Facundo Mena

Bernard Tomic

8W 7L

1-3 ret.#166Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#150Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#524Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#741Matthew Forbes

7-6(2) 6-4#240James McCabe

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#225Darwin Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-2#99Adam Walton

6-2 6-3#234Braden Shick

6-4 6-4#126Christopher O'Connell

6-3 6-2#255Kaichi Uchida

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(1)—Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#103Benjamin Bonzi

6-2 6-3#580Alec Deckers

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#343Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-3#187Michael Mmoh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMiguel TobonTobon

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Bernard TomicTomicBT

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Miguel Tobon's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In58.9%+8.0pp66.9%

1st Serve Won67.1%+3.6pp70.7%

2nd Serve Won49.7%+5.3pp55.0%

Aces / Match3.7+0.44.1

Double Faults / Match3.31.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.4%+2.0pp36.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.1%+7.5pp39.6%

Break Pts Saved55.2%+6.5pp61.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+1.7pp51.0%

Serve · 0–5

58.9%1st Serve In+8.0pp66.9%

67.1%1st Serve Won+3.6pp70.7%

49.7%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp55.0%

3.7Aces / Match+0.44.1

3.3Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

38.4%Return Pts Won+2.0pp36.4%

Pressure · 1–1

47.1%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp39.6%

55.2%Break Pts Saved+6.5pp61.7%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+1.7pp51.0%