ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Alexandr Binda #552Russia2Aoran Wang #891China0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Tue 15 Sept 2026, 09:55 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexandr Binda · 339 places

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #552
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Aoran Wang

China

Wang, 29, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career match volume is overwhelmingly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #891
Peak ranking: #712 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 03:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Binda is the clear favorite based on superior recent hard-court form, a direct H2H win, and a much higher ranking.

Wang's weak return game and poor set record on hard courts make a straight-set Binda victory likely. The match winner odds offer no value, but set betting and total sets markets may provide better opportunities.

Context

Binda, ranked 548, has been competing regularly on hard courts and has a 63.6% win rate in his last 11 matches on the surface.
Wang, ranked 891, has struggled on hard courts recently, winning only 2 of his last 10 matches. Binda's superior recent results and higher ranking suggest he is better positioned in this matchup, though Wang's serve can still be a factor.
- Binda's last 15 hard-court record: 7-4 (63.6% win rate).
- Wang's last 15 hard-court record: 2-8 (20% win rate).
- Binda is ranked 548, Wang is ranked 891.
Wang, 191 cm tall, uses his height to generate power on serve, averaging 8.7 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
His return points won percentage of 32.5% is very low, meaning he may struggle to create break opportunities against Binda's serve. Binda's return points won percentage of 42.4% is significantly better, giving him an edge in return games.
- Wang's last 15 overall aces per match: 8.7.
- Wang's last 15 overall return points won: 32.5%.
- Binda's last 15 overall return points won: 42.4%.
The two players met once before, in the first round of a Challenger event on hard court in September 2025.
Binda won 6-2 6-4, converting 80% of break points and winning 79% of first-serve points. Wang's first-serve percentage was only 50% in that match, which hurt his chances. This head-to-head result supports Binda's edge, though it is only one match.
- H2H: Binda defeated Wang 6-2 6-4 on hard court in September 2025.
- Binda's break point conversion in that match: 80%.
- Wang's first-serve percentage in that match: 50%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexandr Binda

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Binda has a clear recent form and surface edge, plus a direct H2H win, making him the strong favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Binda has a clear recent form and surface edge, plus a direct H2H win, making him the strong favorite.
- Binda last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Wang 4-11 (26.7%)
- Binda last15 Hard record 7-4 (63.6%) vs Wang Hard 2-8 (20%)
- H2H: Binda won 6-2 6-4 on Hard in Sep 2025
- Binda ranking 548 vs Wang 891
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's matches tend to be competitive and Wang's serve can extend games, pushing total over 21.5.
- Binda last15 average 22.5 games per match
- Wang last15 average 17.1 games per match
- Binda last15 Hard average 20.4 games per match
- H2H match had 18 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's superior game win percentage and Wang's negative margin support a handicap cover.
- Binda last15 Hard games won 54.5% vs Wang 43.6%
- Binda last15 Hard average margin +1.1 games per match
- Wang last15 Hard average margin -2.2 games per match
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlexandr Binda -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players tend to be competitive, with an average near 10 games.
- Binda last15 Hard average first set games 9.8
- Wang last15 Hard average first set games 9.1
- H2H first set had 8 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's strong first-set conversion and Wang's weak return game support Binda taking the opener.
- Binda first set win conversion 88% career
- Binda last15 Hard first serve points won 69.8% vs Wang 73.9%
- Wang last15 Hard return points won only 30.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's dominance in recent hard-court sets and Wang's poor set record make a straight-set win likely.
- Binda won H2H in straight sets
- Wang last15 Hard record 2-8 with only 4 sets won in 10 matches
- Binda last15 Hard sets won 60.9%
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlexandr Binda 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wang's low set win rate on hard courts suggests Binda can close in two sets.
- Binda last15 Hard sets won 60.9%
- Wang last15 Hard sets won only 21.1%
- H2H ended in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wang's high ace rate and Binda's moderate ace count push the combined total over 12.5.
- Binda last15 aces per match 4.3
- Wang last15 aces per match 8.7
- Combined average 13.0 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 double faults per match, making over 7.5 plausible.
- Binda last15 double faults per match 3.7
- Wang last15 double faults per match 4.1
- Combined average 7.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-4Alexandr Binda#548vAoran Wang#891Sep 7, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Alexandr Binda

8W 7L

6-4 4-6 6-4#821Kousuke Ogura 7-6(7) 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

7-6(4) 6-2#370Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-1—Cheng-Peng Hsieh

6-3 6-2#431Khumoun Sultanov

7-5 7-5#337Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-2#820Mert Naci Turker

6-4 6-2#654Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-4—S Mert Ozdemir

7-5 6-4#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 5-7 6-2#832Adrian Andreev

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#579Matyas Fuele

7-5 6-3—Aaron Gil Garcia

5-7 6-3 6-4#896David Poljak

Aoran Wang

4W 11L

6-3 7-6(1)#893Yaojie Zeng

7-6(0) 6-2#396Omar Jasika

6-4 6-1#268Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 7-5—Jaesung Choe

6-3 6-1#483Koki Matsuda

6-7(8) 6-3 3-1 ret.—Stefan Storch

6-3 2-1 ret.—Ashton Mcleod

6-0 6-1—Nikita Ianin

5-1 ret.—Noritaka Koizumi

6-4 7-6(10)—Minghui Zhang

6-4 3-0 ret.#398Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 7-6(2)#162Alex Bolt

6-3 7-6(4)#431Khumoun Sultanov

2-1 ret.—Liangxuan Liu

6-2 6-4#849Oliver Anderson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlexandr BindaBinda

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Aoran WangWangAW

Alexandr Binda carries the stronger recent form — Aoran Wang's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.5%+8.4pp54.1%

1st Serve Won67.1%+6.9pp74.0%

2nd Serve Won45.5%+4.5pp50.0%

Aces / Match4.3+4.48.7

Double Faults / Match3.70.4 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.4%+9.9pp32.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.7%+5.2pp34.5%

Break Pts Saved54.6%+4.2pp58.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+3.2pp47.6%

Serve · 2–3

62.5%1st Serve In+8.4pp54.1%

67.1%1st Serve Won+6.9pp74.0%

45.5%2nd Serve Won+4.5pp50.0%

4.3Aces / Match+4.48.7

3.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won+9.9pp32.5%

Pressure · 1–1

39.7%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp34.5%

54.6%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp58.8%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+3.2pp47.6%